Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charles clore] 24/8/2019 15:05

I am already kicking myself for only making 13% so just 37% to go then!

[brasso3] 24/8/2019 14:46

If gold continues this march to $1900 (which I believe is very likely) it will not matter which AIM gold miners (producers/ explorers) you are invested in. They will all go up. We will be kicking ourselves for only making 50% when we could have made 100% elsewhere. Thats the kind of disappointment I like.

[alwaysevolving] 24/8/2019 12:10

With what appears to be a race to the bottom for fiat currency and the state of global politics currently, I’m not convinced that Gold will continue in its bear market!

Where else is there to protect your wealth but Gold (and possibly Bitcoin for the very brave!)

[2tyke] 24/8/2019 10:38

Loafofbread

$1700 is actually very unlikely. Even if it were to happen, gold would still be in a bear market.
The top in gold is very near now. We can tell that because we currently have a record number of bulls.

JC

No not a member of flat earth.
As you can probably infer from my response to 'loaf' above, it is the people who think differently or contrarian that tend to be correct.

AAZ also close to a major top.

[soulsauce] 24/8/2019 10:27

Brasso and so is always the case. But a lot of people have been patient here for many many years and are still hoping to be rewarded.

There is a lot more at play here than just the gold price and has been discussed at length over the last month while the share price has been going down against an increasing gold and silver price.

[brasso3] 24/8/2019 10:01

JC

I was referring to the months at the start of 2019 when it dropped from 90p to the 65p region despite lots of positive news flow.

AAU is one that requires some patience I feel.

[jc2706] 24/8/2019 09:58

The AAZ board was down about being at 60p? It had already risen 1000% by then! That would be like the people on here being down about the price being 10p.

[sleveen] 24/8/2019 09:45

"The Project is reaching a decision point concerning a major new work programme involving further drilling and technical studies, including the preparation of a full statutory Environmental Impact Assessment. These studies will be undertaken in parallel with the commencement of a Pre-Feasibility Study in due course."

The above may be weighing on investors minds.

How much and and for how many years?

[brasso3] 24/8/2019 09:37

Bought some share late on Friday.

The chart here looks good and the high gold price will filter through soon. Q3 should be spectacular.

I think sentiment on here seems low but do not forget that the share price has nearly doubled in 12 months. I recall recently on the AAZ thread everyone was down about the share price being in the 60p region but eventually the story came through.

[jc2706] 24/8/2019 09:35

2tyke,

Are you a member of the flat earth society?

[jc2706] 24/8/2019 09:34

"The gold price ( or silver price), is not that important to the price of a pm stock".

Hmmmmmm.

I can only recall one company that advanced during the gold price falling from 2011. Conversely, during the run up to 2011 I can't recall one falling.

[jaynesdad] 23/8/2019 23:20

Perhaps we are all thinking, and watching, too much. We need to put our shares in our bottom drawers and look at their progress maybe once a month. Spend more time drinking and playing draughts/ darts/ golf/ whatever. We'd probably be far more relaxed.

[loafofbread] 23/8/2019 21:41

I bet we see gold at $1700 before we see $1300.

Long on AAU and reaping the rewards at AAZ.

[2tyke] 23/8/2019 20:55

There are several issues that most posters on this bb and other gold stock bb's for that matter are missing.

Firstly, there is nothing wrong or unusual in a gold stock not moving in correlation with the underlying metal price. The gold price ( or silver price), is not that important to the price of a pm stock. That's because the price is not determined by company economics ( although most investors believe that it is).

Secondly, and more importantly, gold (and the gold stock indices) are still within bear markets. All you've been seeing for the last few years is a bear-market bounce.
This isn't going to last.

[ironstorm] 23/8/2019 20:08

You could jump on some of the more lively stocks. You may simply have their book and trading our stability for their volatility. Take care.

Fortunes to be won and lost in periods like this.

[ironstorm] 23/8/2019 20:05

I have 5.8 million of these. I also hold AAz from 5p and Serabi.

It’s definitely lagging. But as my average is 1.4 am sitting pretty.

I have accepted that this co. Is never going to shout from the rooftops. Ultimately the weight of financial performance will see this levered higher. The longer it waits I believe the higher it will go. Of course I am talking my own book.

Tavsan, loan repayment then Salinbas. All could go quicker but I can wait.

Don’t let this period of ennui bore you out of the shares. Financials will show us the way sooner or later. Keep the faith.

[dixi] 23/8/2019 17:24

Kerim, can't even get the name right today!!

[dixi] 23/8/2019 17:23

Makes me think Kevin is having fun winding us all up with his oh so conservative releases. Even the multi-million holders here must be feeling a little envy with other missed opportunities by now?

[charles clore] 23/8/2019 17:19

It's getting quite ridiculous isn't it? Something needs to be done to address this undervaluation. We all know the COMPANY is making money hand over fist. But what about the owners of the company (its SHAREHOLDERS)?

[1candc] 23/8/2019 16:59

A new analyst report from Panmure Gordon wouldn't go amiss right now, for reference here's the Proactive report from last year



Ariana Resources PLC (LON:AAU) remains the only small-cap gold mining company that carries a Panmure Gordon ‘buy’ recommendation, a status reiterated by the broker following the firm’s recent upbeat production report.

The City firm also raised its target price for Ariana shares to 2.82p, up from 2.75p previously, with the stock currently trading at 1.35p.
READ: Ariana Resources on track to beat production target

On November 12, Ariana revealed that it is on track to exceed this year’s target for gold production from its Kiziltepe mine in Turkey after another record quarter.

The group said income for the three months to September was US$10.1mln with 7,588 ounces of gold produced, a rise of 6% compared to the previous quarter.

In a note to clients, Panmure Gordon’s analysts noted that Ariana’s third-quarter update continued the trend of above plan production, with its full-year 2018 guidance of 20,00 ounces almost reached in nine months.
WATCH: Ariana Resources sets new production records at Kiziltepe

Kiziltepe is part of the group’s Red Rabbit Joint Venture with Proccea Construction Co. and is 50% owned by Ariana through its shareholding in Zenit Madencilik San. ve Tic. A.S.

The analysts pointed that Ariana’s income for the joint venture during the third quarter was US$10.12mln, at a revenue per gold ounce of $1,334 - due to silver credits.
Cash costs low

They added Ariana’s operating cash costs for the quarter were estimated at US$330 an ounce, largely due to a big 28% decline in the Turkish Lira during the period.

Importantly, the analysts said, capital loan repayments by Zenit to Turkiye Finans Katilim Bankasi A.S. have been made on their scheduled basis and reached US$13.2mln at the end of September 2018, with US$19.8mln outstanding.

They also noted that monthly intercompany loan repayments from the JV to Ariana’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Galata Madencilik San. ve Tic. Ltd. in the year to date have now reached around US$1.6mln.
Discount excessive

Having undertaken a review of Ariana’s portfolio, after applying its new commodity forecasts, and using a 10% discount rate, the Panmure Gordon analysts’ estimate that Ariana is currently trading on a price/net asset value (P/NAV) of 0.5x.

They said: “In our view, this discount is excessive given the low-cost and profitable nature of the operations at Kiziltepe.”

The analysts added that further supporting their view is that, at their 10% cost of capital estimate, the long-term price of gold to justify the current equity valuation is below US$1,000 an ounce, whereas the yellow metal is currently valued at US$1,222 an ounce.
Exciting opportunity for investors

The Panmure Gordon analysts have, therefore, concluded that “Ariana offers an exciting opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a new and profitable gold producer, for which the benefits of a weaker host currency (Turkish Lira) have left the operation as one of the lowest cost operations globally.

“We believe the partnership with Proccea and the existing finance arrangements offers investors the confidence that future development projects will also be managed professionally with a lower risk of delays, additional capital costs, and equity dilution.”

They said: “The company’s shares, despite the wider revaluation of gold miners, remain, in our view undervalued.”

Adding that their new target price of 2.82p “offers significant upside to investors as Ariana continues to increase its production from Kiziltepe and develop its longer-term portfolio of assets.”

[soulsauce] 23/8/2019 16:47

gs888 if Kerim isn't scratching his head tonight and thinking he must change the way he does things or how he can garner interest in this share then there is little hope for us in my view.

[goldenshare888] 23/8/2019 16:41

Ditto, spot on soul. There are much better opportunities out there, that's also a problem here.

Gold UP AAU DOWN - unsurprising though in my view for all the reasons we ALL know, and probably some we don't!