Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 04/2/2020 08:32

£5m was illustrating how much we are potentially giving away.
Afaik JV is only giving $13m for 53% of Salinbas. AAU will throw off much more than that in profit a year once Tasvan is operational so unless JV are offering much more than in the MOU, its not that great a deal imo.

[bigglesbingham] 04/2/2020 08:22

Sorry meant reduces $80m

[bigglesbingham] 04/2/2020 08:21

Any money you put in salinbas reduces the 100% you quote but only scratches surface of what is required to develop salinbas, not to mention the increased timescale for shareholders to benefit. Based on previous years AAU won't pay dividend when they have huge debt. Think your kidding yourself if you think they will pay $5m per annum.

[temujiin] 04/2/2020 08:14

Any money we invest in Salinbas benefits us 100%, but only 23.5% via the JV route.

[bigglesbingham] 04/2/2020 08:03

A large chunk of the $80m would be used to put into salinbas. So if you quote the $80m you cant quote 100% salinbas because without investment salinbas isn't worth a great deal.

[temujiin] 04/2/2020 07:49

I certainly agree that the JV MOU has shown the value of AAU's assets was way below the market cap of the company, but I personally think it still sells us short.

I hope the RNS, if terms are agreed, show why the BOD think giving away an estimated $80m of visible future revenue + keeping 100% of Salinbas, is worth $40m now.

[kaos3] 04/2/2020 04:34

in each case it only will get better ;)

[bigglesbingham] 04/2/2020 01:23

The fact that a case exists for JV or go it alone suggests share is undervalued whichever route is decided which has to be a good thing

[bigglesbingham] 04/2/2020 01:19

Precisely and I'm sure that would be nowhere near true value.

[temujiin] 03/2/2020 23:19

5huu, I don't think anyone is suggesting AAU 'go it alone' with Salinbas.

I personally am suggesting a better route, looking at the projected profit of Kizil, Tasvan and satellites, is to continue with it's current JV with Proccea, and keep the 50% of profits from Kizils 25k oz, then also Tasvans 30z oz / year.

(25+30/2 = 27,500oz/yr x POG $1550- C1 costs $650 = $24.75m PER YEAR!)
So:
$10m to pay off mine Capex debt (First year only) then

$5m to pay a yearly divi $5m = approx 0.35p / share / per year
$15m to explore/advance Salinbas per year
$4.5m on new Cyprus asset per year.

We can JV or sell Salinbas for more, further down the line when like Hod Maden, it's worth much more. This seems to offer SH's a better value for asset route than the MOU imo.

[moneymaker2015] 03/2/2020 23:12

I think this years going to be interesting for us no matter what. If we don’t end up entering into a JV, with gold prices as they are, I can see a bigger player putting an offer in for part, if not all of our assets.

[soulsauce] 03/2/2020 22:36

Exactly 5huu.

[5huu] 03/2/2020 22:32

I do conceive it may be possible for Ariana to go it alone and who knows, they may do it avoiding massive dilution. However most must concede it's unlikely, and will it then attract institutional investors with such a strategy. I made my personal opinion clear in an earlier post, but I didn't mention that JV route then also allows them to think beyond the current resources. Further Expansion, diversification, but importantly to allow Kerim and his team to do what they do best in the knowledge they have a partnership that can take everything forward at pace.

[dixi] 03/2/2020 22:20

Maybe AAU stipulated that to have a JV in Salinbas the new partner would have to buy into the other assets. Freeing up up cash in the process for AAU to put to, hopefully, very good use. So many possibilities. Shareholders get a vote in the matter, going to be interesting.

[temujiin] 03/2/2020 22:17

Change of subject slightly. One solution to protect the junior shareholders Proccea and AAU, is to write into the contract that all decisions need to be done by a majority of the shareholders, so new JV would need at least one other to proceed down a certain course of action.

[8rad] 03/2/2020 22:05

Well its certainly time for Kerim & co to explain their intensions (due diligence or not) and stop playing Goddo with our company. Who conceived the 53% figure is what I think all would like to know.

[bigglesbingham] 03/2/2020 22:03

Agree to differ on the shareprice issue.

[bigglesbingham] 03/2/2020 21:50

Protective umbrella ? You referring to the prospective new partner? Proccea obviously considered salinbas too big to go with AAU therefore by implication it's too big for AAU on their own. I need certain clarification but I understand how smaller piece of a realistic bigger pie can be attractive. One thing I have considered is that the shareprice would take a long time to realise true value if they don't go JV route however i truely think that they'd be taken out before their true value was reflected in the shareprice! This potential outcome was discussed on this board a few months ago but it seems to have been put in back burner, I think this JV deal would make it more difficult for that scenario.

[8rad] 03/2/2020 21:12

Biggles... why the protective umbrella when figures talk louder than words.

[temujiin] 03/2/2020 21:05

'Don’t you think the deal is why we’ve increased 40% since it was announced?'
===============

Actually not necessarily no. The share price has been steadily increasing since late 2018 from 1.4p levels. The JV has reinforced that AAU is under valued but we were heading steadily higher anyway. Even with no JV I suspect the share price would be heading towards 3p.

Our debt is almost gone, we currently own 50% of a good 10 year mine and have another 50% owned, 2-300k oz mine almost ready to go.

The JV bid certainly shows to the market that AAU's assets are good, desirable and under valued. I just don't think AAU are getting enough value for the MOU details we currently have seen.

Edit, Mad Foetus, you beat me too it.

[mad foetus] 03/2/2020 20:51

Easy to lose it in the noise but really AAU has been in a solid uptrend for 18 months

[bigglesbingham] 03/2/2020 20:13

Don't you think the deal is why we've increased 40% since it was announced? We'd be languishing around 2p imho if this deal hadn't sparked interest. We all knew value but market wouldn't accept it.

[8rad] 03/2/2020 19:43

So why give us away for £23m when prudence says hold fire mes amigos. Does not make economic sense unless Kerim comes clean...he has much to say to the assembled gallery.

[paul280i] 03/2/2020 19:02

Also Ariana were viewed more than Aviva and Barclays today on HL