Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sonoftherock] 31/1/2020 22:26

We should keep in mind just how small Ariana is and if we really want to think bigger then help is needed.Salinbas in particular can be a big asset, but from what we've seen it isn't a Hot Maden, it will involve shifting lots of dirt. It needs scale, not something for a junior explorer or associate producer.I think Kerim has acknowledged that this isn't Ariana's area of expertise. Quite correctly in my opinion. We could debate the nature of any JV however. We don't know what options were available but management have apparently chosen to go with non miners. This could be to keep Ariana relevant since if it was an integrated mining company then this wouldn't be the case. But I'm not going to be complaining if we see cash returns and a real prospect of progression in the near term.

[crossfirecssf] 31/1/2020 20:12

5huu,...well said. I’ve been there, and it’s death by a thousand cuts. Granted AAU are on a different level to some I’ve had the misfortune to become associated with, but we’re talking at least another decade and the rest if they go it alone, with dilution representing the majority of the aforementioned thousand cuts...

[bigglesbingham] 31/1/2020 18:50

One thinG you can't lose sight of is the fact that before the potential deal was announced the whole market cap including all asset held was £20m ! They are getting £23m for half assets plus we need to see what Proccea are paying for their share salinbas.

[8rad] 31/1/2020 17:55

Dixi I am with you but why are we giving so much here and now for the future unknown? Kerim has much to explain.

[5huu] 31/1/2020 17:25

I will certainly be voting for the JV. I've watched over many years, various junior miners with a grand plan for their valuable resource base. However you can count on one hand the number that have actually grown into a substantial entity that rewarded shareholders. Most end up diluting them to oblivion. Operating in Turkey with a trio of well respected Turkish partners should mitigate many of the domestic risks too. This will also be the foundation that Institutions will then consider us a serious, viable investment in the sector. Just my thoughts of course.......

[dixi] 31/1/2020 16:21

Just give me a decent divi, please :-)

[thanksamillion] 31/1/2020 13:27

Biggles

How long do you believe is needed to fulfill the "shareholder approval" bit, and what do you understand the phrase to mean.

Cheers

[soulsauce] 31/1/2020 13:05

Keeping RR and Tavsan and just hiving off Salinbas is not on the table.

I don't understand wanting to keep Tavsan and set up more debt to build a plant which may not be operational until mid 2022 as opposed to having $30m in the pocket now to use how the company sees fit to increase value.

[bigglesbingham] 31/1/2020 12:55

It's end January pal 4 weeks till end feb?

[mcmather] 31/1/2020 12:00

No; just my interpretation of the original rns was for all to be concluded by end of Feb 2020 so just reckon we'll be hearing this coming week and monday seems as good a day as any:

"The proposed joint venture would be subject inter alia to due diligence, entering into binding agreements and shareholder approval, no later than the end of February 2020."

[bigglesbingham] 31/1/2020 11:07

Why Monday? Have I missed something?

[mcmather] 31/1/2020 11:02

It won't get voted through if it's not deemed beneficial to the majority of shareholders.

After the Salinbas drilling results last year, KS said AAU "need to think bigger".

The MOU rns says "It is the goal of the Partners to become one of the premier gold mining companies operating in Turkey".

If the timeline for this is the next 10+ years, AAU / shareholders may well be better sticking with what they have.

That's why I suspect it will be the intention of the new jv to rapidly escalate all projects; "we need to think bigger".

I expect we'll find out monday.

[thanksamillion] 31/1/2020 10:58

I see your argument, but believe that we can put the $30m to good use.

[8rad] 31/1/2020 10:48

Plas ...I concur completely.

[plasybryn] 31/1/2020 10:40

I don't see any real benefit from the new Agreement as far as Tavsan or indeed the whole of Red Rabbit is concerned. I think with Proccea we have proven that we can bring Tavsan into production at minimal cost (say $25m) financed by non dilutive Bank funds and in a reasonable timescale, say 2022. That will more than double our production. - 25,000 + 30,000 = 50,000 - 50% = 25,000 ozs pa
I agree however that the Hot Gold Corridor is a different kettle of fish and that we need help to take this forward in one form or another. Especially if we want to speed up the process and start looking at other prospects in the Corridor etc. That's why I really, based admittedly on the info we have todate, prefer to only give away ownership of the Hot Gold Corridor to the new player and of course Proccea. But will keep an open mind until the full details are seen.

[thanksamillion] 31/1/2020 10:29

Tasvan 100%

Which according to the table makes "stay as we are" the logical choice by far, in fact any figure suitably above 10% suggests the same??. Hmmm, but I know I am usually far too suspicious.

I am of the hope and belief that all the future JV production figures shown bar Red Rabbit are way below where they potentially could be in coming years. And no mention of where Cyprus could be under either outcome.

So I will almost certainly be voting for the JV.

[temujiin] 30/1/2020 22:25

I'd say the chances of Tasvan going into production either with, or without the JV, is close to 100%

[charles clore] 30/1/2020 17:54

Anyone knowing Kerim's proclivity for success would never set the bar as low as 10%. I can't remember him failing at anything before and that's one of the main reasons I am invested here.

[mad foetus] 30/1/2020 17:36

Nobody ever got rich by underestimating the time and money it takes a small company to bring a major mining project to completion. A JV on reasonable terms works for everyone imo.

[pedr01] 30/1/2020 17:28

Yes probabilities of success.

As stated, all numbers are my finger in the air numbers to get my head round which way I am leaning towards. I have no way of knowing what the probabilities of success are apart from maybe they are higher in the JV.

Everybody is free to slot in their own views of percentages etc.

[plasybryn] 30/1/2020 17:04

10% probability of success with Tavsan. I don't buy that at all. It will be producing 30,000 ozs p.a plus by 2022 (starts end 2021 perhaps) with currently 50% ownership with Proccea as we stand.

[bigglesbingham] 30/1/2020 17:02

Those are probabilities of success I assume

[plasybryn] 30/1/2020 16:59

Pedro, Am I being thick or what, but why 10% of Salinbas and 10% of Tavsan.
Surely 100% of Salinbas and 50% of Tavsan
77500 not 20500?

[charles clore] 30/1/2020 16:03

5huu - very nice!