Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[dearg doom] 28/11/2019 09:48

Thanks to McMather for clarifying of the situation in 18270.

Short-term optics may look less satisfying.

*Half a cooked pie, ready to eat is now only a quarter cooked pie.

*One uncooked pie is now half an uncooked pie but now with enough funds to buy the oven to cook it.

Even if only a half a pie share, the deal ultimately should give more golden-crusted savoury pies in a fewer years time, than otherwise possible,

Happy to buy while the oven brochures being viewed!

[shortarm] 28/11/2019 09:36

If the deal goes ahead they could now give a special dividend of more than the SharePrice and still have a solid company going forward lol

[soulsauce] 28/11/2019 09:31

Mad isn't it Charles.

[charles clore] 28/11/2019 09:24

Looks like smart money is following the hot money now! After all that excitement the share price is back in the normal trading range!

[soulsauce] 28/11/2019 08:54

Advertised spread still wide :-/

[dixi] 28/11/2019 08:46

This is so divisive. Guess that is 'Ariana with attitude', like it or not!

[mad foetus] 28/11/2019 08:18

Volumes suggest hot money has left and smart money is starting to come in

[bigglesbingham] 27/11/2019 22:05

They have said it's a company. Why would the government get involved in a small gold producer??

[temujiin] 27/11/2019 21:49

'Some of us got our fingers badly burned when just such a shocking turn of events happened some years ago in China to another goldy, GGG'

Yes remember that well and decided never again to invest in any exploration company in China, ever. Turkey though, I put at the lower risk level of nationalisation when compared to countries in say SA or Africa.

[mmedestael] 27/11/2019 21:29

I just hope the new partner that the company are being so coy about does not turn out to be the Turkish government. In that case those of us with a suspicious mind might fear such a step could lead to the company being forcibly nationalised in the future. Some of us got our fingers badly burned when just such a shocking turn of events happened some years ago in China to another goldy, GGG, as soon as their improving prospects were realized by state officials.

[mcmather] 27/11/2019 20:42

I think it's a cracking deal. As per the post early am, the proposed partner is stumping up $63m which, as you said, may well be financed. They will want that back plus interest asap and I cant see them being happy with their share of 25,000ozs from Kiziltepe for the next couple of years. I anticipate MASSIVE escalation on all fronts if / when the deal is signed. I was just interested to see whether the new partner, perhaps coupled with proccea, would be paying the capex ($53m?) for the mine construction at Salinbas, but suspected it will be the responsibility of the enlarged jv but with the new partner 'organising' it.

[bigglesbingham] 27/11/2019 20:33

In running any company you have to look at relinquishing assets/shares in order to grow. With myself it's making equity available to make sure you don't lose staff. It's never easy but sometimes you have to look as having a smaller percentage of a bigger entity. I spoke to Micheal DV and they are more than aware about securing minority protections within the agreement which would be my main concern. I would suggest that Kerim is very familiar with the third partner probably with experiences of Proccea although that's my assumption. So again I reiterate we get our current market cap in cash and a quarter of income stream from kiziltepe then tarsvan and the benefits of a focused salinbas project. In addition I'm sure there's a lot we don't know about especially when AAUs are free to concentrate on exploration and development.

[bigglesbingham] 27/11/2019 20:20

My understanding is the partner will commit the $8m , procea will contribute to the tune of around $6m the term of which are vague but they said it would be equitable to all parties. I believe this $8m will get EIA done, further exploration etc . Once the $8m spent they will be responsible for sorting debt finance out using their weight. Not dissimilar to how Proccea bought into kiziltepe . Point is Ariana will explore find gold (what there good at) the building operational and financial aspects will be done by Proccea and JV partner. The JV will have the financial clout to expedite processes and who knows the sale of salinbas once further exploration is done would not surprise me. I know some will not like giving away assets but fact is we aren't big enough to exploit them in a timely manner. A couple of months ago I expressed concern to the board as to how long term shareholders are to get any reward WITHOUT selling shares - well I've got my answer!!

[mcmather] 27/11/2019 20:03

Biggles, when you spoke to KS / MDV, did they specifically say out of whose pocket(s) the cost to construct the mine at Salinbas will come out of; the proposed partner? Proccea (as their way of buying in to Salinbas)? The enlarged jv including AAU?

[sonoftherock] 27/11/2019 19:38

Oh OK. Was worth a try.

[bigglesbingham] 27/11/2019 19:34

Nope they don't work like that salinbas includes everything as they stated that southern regions will be explored by JV. As it stands the cash to be received is exactly same as market cap therefore everything else ie their share of JV , kizilcuker , invindri is worthless. Obviously the deal is has to be signed but worth 5p all day long and that's conservative.

[sonoftherock] 27/11/2019 17:14

I'll be interested to see how Salinbas is defined in any final agreement. The implication of the last drilling was that a larger area would end up being lumped into the final project. If the new deal only abides by an older definition of Salinbas (in line with the previous scoping study) then Ariana may have further paydays as additional areas are added? Just a thought.

[davidspringbank] 27/11/2019 15:52

SiriusBizness

I was reading an article by Michael Ballanger who said he had tipped Aftermath Silver (AGG:TSX.V) to be the best performing junior in 2019. He had also bought it himself. I started researching it and by the time I bought it, it was around C$0.27c per share. Apparently Eric Sprott had invested $3m at C$0.20c per share. It has 50m ounces of silver indicated and inferred from Cachinal and Challacollo, in Chile, which would be expanded by further drilling. I read in a later article by MB that the President of AGG, Ralph Rushton, was delighted with the success of the fundraising. When I last looked, the price had risen to C$0.30c. They closed tonight ar C$ 0.35c.

I hold around 10 Canadian junior explorers/producers.

[mcmather] 27/11/2019 15:22

DD, the proposed partner pays $5m to buy in 17% of Salinbas. They then inject an additional $8m equity to see it through to construction.

They also pay the current partners - AAU & Proccea - $25m each and they then own 53% of the enlarged jv.

My take is that the enlarged jv will fund the construction for Salinbas with the proposed partner 'organising' the finance.

Kiziltepe, Tavsan & Salinbas will all then be within the enlarged jv.

For any discoveries outside of these prospects and which get brought in to it, AAU will get 3X cost back, which I think now equates to 2.765 net (AAU owning 23.5% of the enlarged jv).

[dixi] 27/11/2019 15:12

I had thought AAU were undertaking to find a partner for the Salinbas project and we were all aware of that? So that's what we are getting. AAU get $30m and the new partner develops the project. AAU receive 23.5% return, whilst doing what they prefer - exploration.

I had though that the general consensus was that AAU developing Salinbas would be way, way off in the future and be a huge drain on financial resources.

I am not expert here at all, but I am here to make a few ££'s along the way :-)

[dearg doom] 27/11/2019 14:52

Memorandum of Understanding RNS - 48 hours later

As expected private investors very much still unclear as to the benefits of the proposed deal. The share price is gradually returning close to price levels seen before the announcement.

Private investors had been speculating on more of a binary outcome of higher profits alongside higher risks. What seems on offer as read, stifles that objective. It appears to offer less risk, with cash upfront now, and increased shared profitability for years from now, in another project.

The logic of Salinbas proposed deal escapes me. Is it that Ariana later funds Salinbas project with its proposed partner to hold onto only 47% minority share.

On other joint ventures brought into the partnership, is Ariana paid 3 times its exploration expenditure? And for what final return? Would seem to be the future profits shared on a reduced percentage? Does Ariana just get $5m + $8m for 53% their prize undeveloped asset? Hopefully, someone may have a better insight into this matter to clear this up for me.

Difficult to see, once the deal is done what is the near term catalyst for the share price to increase? Is a special dividend enough?

Rather unfortunate, not to have communication with normal media channels to explain the CEO's vision as yet.

[siriusbizness] 27/11/2019 14:27

A rise like that in gold price will drive this higher next year for sure.

David, which junior Canadian gold miners have you invested in? AGG caught my eye given the success of their CEO with previous companies

[davidspringbank] 27/11/2019 13:45

If Panmure Gordon and Kerim are excited about the future, then I am too! They know what they are doing. I am a long-term holder with 2.5 million shares. If these guys want to turn us into a premier miner in Turkey, who am I to argue? I am aware that gold has broken out of a multi-year downtrend and is consolidating. Various analysts are forecasting targets of $1600 - $1700 for gold, next year. In the past couple of weeks I have been quietly buying Canadian junior gold and silver miners with multi-bagger potential. I also own GDX gold and silver miners in my pension and I own bullion silver and gold coins. I am not a gold bug, but I am concerned about rising world debt levels and financial markets which are elevated by money printing. Central banks have also been buying gold so what do they know that ordinary people do not? In an era of negative interest rates, I'd rather put my faith in gold and silver which has been a store of value for thousands of years.

[soulsauce] 27/11/2019 13:23

Cheers Plasybryn.

[plasybryn] 27/11/2019 13:22

soulsauce: Great to hear you are back in! P.G. issued a Flash BUY Note the same day, but unfortunately he can't amend the valuation until it is a done deal. MofU don't count. So I suspect we will get a full Note once the deal is formally announced and agreed at a shareholder General Meeting before the end of February hopefully.