Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davidspringbank] 27/11/2019 15:52

SiriusBizness

I was reading an article by Michael Ballanger who said he had tipped Aftermath Silver (AGG:TSX.V) to be the best performing junior in 2019. He had also bought it himself. I started researching it and by the time I bought it, it was around C$0.27c per share. Apparently Eric Sprott had invested $3m at C$0.20c per share. It has 50m ounces of silver indicated and inferred from Cachinal and Challacollo, in Chile, which would be expanded by further drilling. I read in a later article by MB that the President of AGG, Ralph Rushton, was delighted with the success of the fundraising. When I last looked, the price had risen to C$0.30c. They closed tonight ar C$ 0.35c.

I hold around 10 Canadian junior explorers/producers.

[mcmather] 27/11/2019 15:22

DD, the proposed partner pays $5m to buy in 17% of Salinbas. They then inject an additional $8m equity to see it through to construction.

They also pay the current partners - AAU & Proccea - $25m each and they then own 53% of the enlarged jv.

My take is that the enlarged jv will fund the construction for Salinbas with the proposed partner 'organising' the finance.

Kiziltepe, Tavsan & Salinbas will all then be within the enlarged jv.

For any discoveries outside of these prospects and which get brought in to it, AAU will get 3X cost back, which I think now equates to 2.765 net (AAU owning 23.5% of the enlarged jv).

[dixi] 27/11/2019 15:12

I had thought AAU were undertaking to find a partner for the Salinbas project and we were all aware of that? So that's what we are getting. AAU get $30m and the new partner develops the project. AAU receive 23.5% return, whilst doing what they prefer - exploration.

I had though that the general consensus was that AAU developing Salinbas would be way, way off in the future and be a huge drain on financial resources.

I am not expert here at all, but I am here to make a few ££'s along the way :-)

[dearg doom] 27/11/2019 14:52

Memorandum of Understanding RNS - 48 hours later

As expected private investors very much still unclear as to the benefits of the proposed deal. The share price is gradually returning close to price levels seen before the announcement.

Private investors had been speculating on more of a binary outcome of higher profits alongside higher risks. What seems on offer as read, stifles that objective. It appears to offer less risk, with cash upfront now, and increased shared profitability for years from now, in another project.

The logic of Salinbas proposed deal escapes me. Is it that Ariana later funds Salinbas project with its proposed partner to hold onto only 47% minority share.

On other joint ventures brought into the partnership, is Ariana paid 3 times its exploration expenditure? And for what final return? Would seem to be the future profits shared on a reduced percentage? Does Ariana just get $5m + $8m for 53% their prize undeveloped asset? Hopefully, someone may have a better insight into this matter to clear this up for me.

Difficult to see, once the deal is done what is the near term catalyst for the share price to increase? Is a special dividend enough?

Rather unfortunate, not to have communication with normal media channels to explain the CEO's vision as yet.

[siriusbizness] 27/11/2019 14:27

A rise like that in gold price will drive this higher next year for sure.

David, which junior Canadian gold miners have you invested in? AGG caught my eye given the success of their CEO with previous companies

[davidspringbank] 27/11/2019 13:45

If Panmure Gordon and Kerim are excited about the future, then I am too! They know what they are doing. I am a long-term holder with 2.5 million shares. If these guys want to turn us into a premier miner in Turkey, who am I to argue? I am aware that gold has broken out of a multi-year downtrend and is consolidating. Various analysts are forecasting targets of $1600 - $1700 for gold, next year. In the past couple of weeks I have been quietly buying Canadian junior gold and silver miners with multi-bagger potential. I also own GDX gold and silver miners in my pension and I own bullion silver and gold coins. I am not a gold bug, but I am concerned about rising world debt levels and financial markets which are elevated by money printing. Central banks have also been buying gold so what do they know that ordinary people do not? In an era of negative interest rates, I'd rather put my faith in gold and silver which has been a store of value for thousands of years.

[soulsauce] 27/11/2019 13:23

Cheers Plasybryn.

[plasybryn] 27/11/2019 13:22

soulsauce: Great to hear you are back in! P.G. issued a Flash BUY Note the same day, but unfortunately he can't amend the valuation until it is a done deal. MofU don't count. So I suspect we will get a full Note once the deal is formally announced and agreed at a shareholder General Meeting before the end of February hopefully.

[mcmather] 27/11/2019 13:05

Must have been my doppelganger plas; I've been sunning myself in the balmy north west of england.

(Just what I wanted to hear mind, 18260, ta)

[soulsauce] 27/11/2019 13:04

Thanks Plasybryn much obliged.

Let's hope Kieron follows through with a decent but note.

[plasybryn] 27/11/2019 12:59

By the way, nice to meet two ADVFN posters at the meeting. TJ4 & McMather.
Nibbles could have been better, but good to see the Co. keeping tight control of costs!

[plasybryn] 27/11/2019 12:49

Some, me included, have seen Ariana as very much Kerim's baby that he has nurtured carefully for 14 years from inception to a flourishing Co. I was there on Monday both at the presentation and earlier just with Michael & Kerim and asked him if he wasn't a bit sad to be losing his controlling interest. Absolutely not. They are all really excited about the future because it returns them to what they are good at (Exploration & Development)and finding new strategic investments to quickly monetise. But more importantly it is what they are most happy doing. Their raison D'etre. It is clear to me that all the prospects, particularly Red Rabbit & the full Hot Gold Corridor (not just Salinbas & Ardale) contain a lot more gold and silver of course, but it must have been frustrating to only be able to finance small steps at a time. That's going to change big time and the new incoming partner, as someone has already identified, will want a quick return on their investment. The new goal is to become one of the premier gold mining companies operating in Turkey. That would mean circa 150,000 ozs plus a year of gold production to match Eldorado or their like. Somewhere else it says we are now poised for rapid growth. We have all the ingredients to make that a reality. Don't look back, look forward and consider what might now be possible. The whole will be greater than the sum of the parts. By the way Kieron Hodgson was there from Panmure Gordon our brokers. I haven't ever seen him so excited. He was full of praise for what they have achieved and appeared very confident about the Co's future.

[d1g3y] 27/11/2019 12:32

Agreed, however I do wish the share price reflected the positivity. Keenly awaiting the next interview to see if we get clarification on some points

[thanksamillion] 27/11/2019 12:22

Long term hold here for me.

[soulsauce] 27/11/2019 12:16

JD kizilkukur and irvindi not included in the deal.
At the end of the day Ariana are getting cash equal to the current mkt cap and still retaining a decent amount of RR and Salinbas, retaining 100% of the two projects mentioned.

They have the improved wherewithal to forward the Salinbas and Tavsan projects and may be expedite and improve production at RR with the 3x exploration cost still in place.

And the main thing is they have a huge cash pile to pay a dividend but more importantly to invest in new projects.

I don't see anything other than positive.

[thanksamillion] 27/11/2019 12:16

Who buys 20 odd quid worth of shares ????

[bigglesbingham] 27/11/2019 11:58

JD I've personally no problem atall with alternate views soulsauce will vouch for that. For some reason my posts are getting cut short. On my previous post I wanted to say the board has been accused of making decisions which may not benefit shareholders but themselves by creating a company with very long term goals which keeps them in a job but would provide little payback for patient long term investors. This deal clearly benefits shareholders now with unknown potential of a smaller piece of a bigger pie. Based on their management and knowledge of the situation I feel I have to back them as I feel they have done and excellent job to date and as major shareholders themselves they would not be doing it if they felt it wasn't in the companies best interests.

[bigglesbingham] 27/11/2019 11:50

I fully support all views on here and had discussions with Michael and Kerim. A significant part of those discussions were the fact that we would be a minority shareholder in the kiziltepe and salinbas JV. It was explained that there will be significant protection and representation within the shareholder agreement. It is also clear that the three components of the JV have clear areas of expertise. Finance, engineering operations and design, and AAUs exploration expertise. A couple of points I would like to make are, the board has got us to this point and they know a lot more than the market and us punters who are speculating on the nitty gritty of the deal therefore I take reassurance that they, fully aware of all facts, would not be proposing this if the didn't feel it was beneficial for all shareholders. Another is that kizilcuker invindri are held outside JV. This move definitely improves shorter term rewards for shareholders. As to longerex

[jaynesdad] 27/11/2019 11:07

Thanks for the replies.
Dixi, you cannot seriously be suggesting that only bullish mails about this proposed company changing deal should be posted? People have different views, and even if they don’t correspond with yours they should be aired. It should make people challenge their own thinking, even if it ultimately just reassures them that they were correct in the first place.
As is probably obvious I am far from happy with the deal (understatement), but respect those of you who support it.
I personally would prefer Mondays RNS didn't exist. I find cashflows from a 51% share in a JV that has a debt free Tavsan joining the current productive assets in a matter of only 2 or 3 years very much preferable to a reduction of interest to 23.5%. In my view the cash lump sum of $25m comes nowhere near compensating for that lost revenue stream from JV to AAU over the next 10+ years.
A separate standalone JV covering Salinbas could speed development there, and I would welcome it. After all the BOD have expressed significant interest from multiple parties. It seems to me that we are paying heavily with our current (and only short/mid term foreseeable) revenue generating productive resources in order to secure a deal to speed the NE - and even then we are still giving away over an astonishing 75% of it (I add my understanding of the RNS may be flawed despite reading it several times).
Last Friday we had 51% of Red Rabbit and 100% of Kizilcukur, Ivrindi and Salinbas. Under the proposal that reduces to 23.5% across the board, with no guarantees of future success and a loss of control to an unknown entity.
Anyway, I decided to say nothing until the share price had found its new level which it seems to have done. I won’t be posting further on the board (note that I have not sold, I just don’t want to get into endless arguments).
JD has left the building! Thanks for the conversations over the last few months.

[jc2706] 27/11/2019 11:06

If the shareholding of the new JV partner went below 50% I am pretty sure that there would be no deal.

[mad foetus] 27/11/2019 11:03

There are buyers at 2.4

[dixi] 27/11/2019 10:43

Pretty much back to square one! I guess the speculators are leaving the building. It really has become ridiculous now.

[dixi] 27/11/2019 10:33

Meanwhile we can talk it back down! AAU stand to benefit from Salinbas way more with this deal than the previous arrangement. Corporate action was wanted to kick this along and that is what we have.

[mcmather] 27/11/2019 09:53

Can't see the terms changing JD.

As part of the new jv, AAU will "be responsible for all exploration across the new joint venture, with a reward mechanism of three times the exploration cost for all new projects injected in to the JV in the future"; I expect there will be some legals in there re minimum period that AAU will be responsible for the above.

Be interesting to see in whose name all the datasets (Newmont, Kefi, NE Turkey, etc) are in (suspect AAUs?) but if the jv does have bona fide plans to become one of the premier gold miners in Turkey, I'd suspect they'd want somebody onboard like AAU, so I'm less concerned by the percentages.