Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[mcmather] 11/7/2019 09:32

Not explosive stuff at face value, but really interesting for me the confirmation that Salinbas and Ardala are one; I surmise that this will also be good for overall costs per oz when it comes to mining / NPV.

[bigglesbingham] 11/7/2019 09:27

Wouldnt dispute that, I'm happy at shares changing hands at these levels as it create support .

[jaynesdad] 11/7/2019 09:27

Charles, the grades from the new pits, ie those mined 2020 onwards will be lower grade than Ardala South (or at least that is what is expected). That is why I believe there will be no spectacular result from the quarterlies. The production result is likely to decline slightly next year until Tavsan comes on stream - or a second ball mill is decided upon at the Kiziltepe plant which is being considered. Hence I think the BOD will manage the quarterly result, 'smooth' if you like, to avoid shock. To an extent the slight lowering of grades wont much matter so much post March 2020 as free cash flow will, relatively speaking, explode once the current loan is fully repaid

[kirbs4] 11/7/2019 09:24

Agree JD.. I havent seen one post suggest this is a bad rns from anyone.The question around whether it is what some 'punters' were hoping for is a different one entirely.The simple fact that we will shake off a lot of those punters and replace them with either new longer term holders or increased holdings for current investors is in itself a positive imo.I have considered this a long term play since i invested, and the long term outlook gets better every rns, the only point i have made is the news isn't the 'game changer' most short term/punters were hoping for.

[jc2706] 11/7/2019 09:20

iLeeman,

Agree completely. This is one of those long term extremely positive bits of news that does not whet the appetite of many in the short term. However, given the dampened expectations of those looking for stellar drill results it will paradoxically provide an increased opportunity for further drilling results to surprise positively.

[jaynesdad] 11/7/2019 09:19

Charles, I probably speak for Kirbs as well when I say we are not 'playing down' the content of the RNS. But we are being objective. I personally have a worryingly large amount invested here (relative to my wealth and the MC) so believe me I am not attempting to deramp. I am not looking to buy either, so hoping for a lower price, since I would regard my current holding as OTT already. I am a long term holder.

[charles clore] 11/7/2019 09:11

JD - that will be good enough for me. A nice steady rate of production and sufficient income to ensure the bank debt is easily repaid by next Spring. It's all shaping up very nicely imho.

[ileeman] 11/7/2019 09:11

It is very significant but not particularly significant to the shareprice at this stage but great news none the less, adds to the fundamentals.

"the two systems should in fact be treated as one".

Keep solid production figures and this will rerate with Gold continuing to move higher.

[soulsauce] 11/7/2019 09:09

As I have said on many occasions this share is controlled by PI's and more often than not sells out on news.
That is just as apt today with news that many expected or hoped to be better, the usual reporting style of the company and lack of understanding.
It doesn't help when the company got some folk all excited by tweeting out pictures of bright yellow blobs.

However the whole Salinbas project continues to carry little or no value in the SP, I would say no value.
We know much more drilling will be required but the significance of the news today with the Ardala-Salinbas connection should not be lost.

[kirbs4] 11/7/2019 09:09

I agree Charles.That doesn't mean it is game changing.I believe the share price will reflect the added value over the coming months, if the results were game changing it would be over 3p this morning.

[jaynesdad] 11/7/2019 09:07

Charles what rabbit are you expecting pulled from the hat in the quarterly results? We know, I think, that there have been no processing issues so the only variable is dur to the grades processed. But we know that the company will blend mined ore from the stockpile, and to that extent can almost select the result they want. I suspect that result they want is a steady state, especially give the transition to Ardala N and Deyra at the end of the year. So personally I expect little change, and the following financial result may be a little lower quarter on quarter due to the POG/POS in Q2 compared to Q1 - $1400 POG only suddenly occurred at the very end of the quarter

[kirbs4] 11/7/2019 09:06

I agree Biggles. I am a long termer and am happy with the rns. I do feel it would warrant more than the small jump which is why i believe it is being judged against its potential rather than what it adds to AAU which actually supports your comment around short termers who wanted a quick buck now jumping ship. Good long term news, but not a great game changing announcement imo.

[charles clore] 11/7/2019 09:05

JD, Kirbs - no matter how you try and play down the results, the fact remains that today's news derisks the project considerably. There is still nothing in the price for Salinbas and the rise in gold and silver IS happening now!

[bigglesbingham] 11/7/2019 09:02

Only difference is the potential has been derisked obviously the short termers don't understand this and have got out. You can tell by the average size of trades that they a likely to be in it for quick buck. The larger holders who believe in the company will no doubt be pleased by results and yet another piece of the puzzle has been added and the company further derisked. Rns our tomorrow re quarterlies?? My quests would be yes as they seem to be understanding that positive momentum needs to be maintained.

[bigglesbingham] 11/7/2019 08:58

They have to firm up the resource by pinpointing where to drill. They have drilled and now have a better idea of where to drill next. Once the potential is proved up they will try and turn it into shareholder value by selling or producing . I hope selling the asset as this will realise cash to shareholders much quicker. Has to be a slow methodical process.

[kirbs4] 11/7/2019 08:55

I think the share price speaks for itself Charles. These results arent enough to change the game here. They do add value to AAU and in the long run that should be realized, and they do add to the potential, but we already had potential so no change there.

[jaynesdad] 11/7/2019 08:53

Well said JC. As implied earlier I'm not surprised at the share price reaction (or lack of). No one doubted that mineralisation would be found and otherwise there is nothing in the RNS with any real impact. The continuity between the areas was suspected by Kerim and the team, this just adds the proof. Should provide support to the share price but I doubt will fuel a major breakout - in the short term a rise in POG is more likely to provide that if it happens. Must keep level heads here, constant euphoria helps no one

[charles clore] 11/7/2019 08:52

Kirbs - I disagree, the fact that Ardala has now been proven to connect with Salinbas IS a significant game changer imho.

[ileeman] 11/7/2019 08:49

Attempted to breakout this morning.

[kirbs4] 11/7/2019 08:49

I think the problem here is that salinbas is the potential game changer and while these are good results they are not game changing. It is being judged on its potential i feel rather than what the value the findings will add to AAU.

[charles clore] 11/7/2019 08:46

Looks like Nige is up to his old tricks again. Surprised he has anything left to take off the table to be honest.

Enter stage left Kerim with the quarterly report.

[jc2706] 11/7/2019 08:41

It always seems to be the way with these anticipated drill results. There is a build up in expectation such that, when they arrive, everyone is anticipating a sharp rise on the back of them. Sometimes the results disappoint, sometimes not but it usually requires exceptional results to stimulate a very significant rise. The absence of such a rise is enough to partially deflate the sense of euphoria. The stock market rule is that if everybody thinks one way then the opposite is likely to happen.

The company is doing all the right things and is producing good results. My experience is that, ultimately, this always translates into a higher share price but the path may be nothing like what people expect.

[soulsauce] 11/7/2019 08:39

The significance is that Salinbas and Ardala are interconnected making one huge mineralised zone.
Lots more drilling will be required but hopefully these results will have provided the information required for where to concentrate the next drilling phase.

[jaynesdad] 11/7/2019 08:34

I can get an online quote for 1.5m shares, but no quote for selling 1000. That tells me the MMs have plenty on their books and need no more. Hence the restrained share price reaction to this RNS. See how it goes for the rest of the day

[red imp] 11/7/2019 08:25

I see the spread has now been reduced to 2.45/2.50. Unsure as to the significance, if any, of this.