Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[plasybryn] 04/6/2021 11:18

It may be of course that the Accounts are held back till the Courts approve the capital reorganisation so they can confirm in the Accounts what the future dividend policy is. I suspect that is what they will want to do. I suspect they will also want to record in the Accounts the planned special payout, which again means holding that up till after the July announcement. Just my thoughts of course.

[lottsgold] 04/6/2021 11:09

For a government that has made a point of becoming a top gold producer Turkey are pretty slow with these bloody permits...

[plasybryn] 04/6/2021 07:18

Our Annual Report & Accounts should be out soon. Historically they have been issued early June. Last year they were late - end of July. Now we have new Accountants we were told financials would be more timely so let's hope they come soon. Will be interesting to see how they articulate the strategy and future vision under their new Corporate identity.

[jaf1948] 03/6/2021 19:38

Biggles,

When the background selling started, the share price was around 5.6p - I can't remember exactly. The broker could have sold a very large amount into the market which would have dropped the price maybe to 5p. As it is, many have been sold under 5p. So all this subterfuge might not made any money for the seller or the seller's estate - it might have been more profitable just to make two or three very large sells.

Because the seller could not possibly have any better future knowledge of Ariana's sp, there was no way of calculating whether the drip-fed into the market method would be any better than a 'big-bang' approach.

I am a great believer in Occam's Razor. Some people are buying and some people are selling and to me that fits the facts.

P.S. I understand your logic and it makes sense but I still go with the simpler solution.

[bigglesbingham] 03/6/2021 18:23

As I have said many times the pattern here is the seller waits until there have been several buys then sells a similar amount so as not to rock the boat too much. This implies they are a large holder with common goal of the residual holders . If there is a news day then the buys come in but so does the seller, if there is no news and the buys come in then there is the 250k sell. If there is a quiet day the seller stays away not wanting to instigate shareprice fall. If could be a broker selling on behalf of a large patient seller. Maybe Starvest understanding how the market fit this shemare moves but if you analyst the buys and sells since August then you will see the pattern.

[jaf1948] 03/6/2021 16:58

soulsauce,

True, but as I have said before, I have never liked the 'background seller' theory. It can be used for two main reasons - one, to explain a lot of selling suggesting that there is nothing actually wrong but this one person needs to sell a large amount, and secondly, that it implies once this seller is finished, the share price will no longer be artificially held down.

[soulsauce] 03/6/2021 16:50

Not much liquidity from the buy side Jaf.

[jaf1948] 03/6/2021 16:32

Today is a good example of why I do not believe in the 'background seller' scenario. All day, the bid/offer prices have been almost the same as yesterday but not a single large sell.

Is the moon in the wrong house ? Is Jupiter not aligning with Mars ? Or did the 'background seller' just decide that today was not a good day to sell. It all seems highly unlikely to me.

[coachsailor] 02/6/2021 19:56

A big thankyou to whoever sold another 300,000 at 12.23. The price dropped enough for my limit order for 200,000 to kick in at 4.99. Brings the av price up, but now 1m in my ISA plus the share acct so 2m total. Like Biggles, have been waiting for the sun to shine on these for 11 years and for all the reasons he has posted am sure it is about to rise.

[d1g3y] 02/6/2021 18:06

For a deal to be done both parties need to at least perceive value. Özaltin paid (from recollection) 37 million with a commitment of an additional 8 million to buy into the JV. They did not do this because AAU needed cash but because they seen an opportunity. They will be pushing to make good on their investment just like us

[jaf1948] 02/6/2021 16:10

konil,

Agree with almost all you said. It is very difficult to justify staying in these in the short term. but I will give it a bit longer. I'm hoping (only hope, not based on anything) that once the dividend is out of the way, the company's prospects will change.

[ironstorm] 02/6/2021 16:06

There was nothing wrong with yesterdays news, other than it being a bit underwhelming.

I think we were all expecting a bigger deal, with greater near term potential.

I suspect and hope there will be other news but this just crept in ahead of it - just an easy deal to close quickly.

I am stlll attached to my 6m+ holding and holding out for far more. One day Rodney . . . . .

[konil] 02/6/2021 15:00

jaf, its just too frustrating here especially as i'm overweight and no cash even if i wanted to go further.

i've stuck it out for over a year and i'm still under water, even after all the progress aau have made and with a supporting pm environment.

many who were here for longer with good profits to bank will have left over the past few months and unfortunately the rns we have just had, with only long term horizons and no news on near term items will encourage more departures.

this long struggle around here will later provide good support but for now its hellishly uncomfortable for the likes of me, some of whom may have given up, and for those with profits to bank just too painful to stay put with other fish to fry. even the court dates rns did not state what the 2 june dates are, why not? the comms is just pain after pain.

not at all surprised by the selling.

[steviec1] 02/6/2021 14:49

Couldn't resist had another top up just now at 5.05p

[jaf1948] 02/6/2021 14:42

The facts remains that there are (too) many sells today and indeed most days. What that says to me is that there are still people who do not see Ariana as a good investment AT THE MOMENT - yes, there will always be a few who have to sell but not the majority.

[charles clore] 02/6/2021 14:35

Looks to me as though market makers are on a fishing trip today. We could even see a blue finish.

[bigglesbingham] 02/6/2021 14:22

These sells could also be MDV raising money to buy his options prior to dividend??? Just a thought

[soulsauce] 02/6/2021 13:46

Great post Plasybryn.

Unfortunately this is still very much a PI held stock and the share price action clearly reflects that.
Unfortunately our brilliant broker continues to fail on every level. One of the main reasons it was brought in was to build the institutional base. A big fat abject fail.

I wish the company would work harder on that.

[bigglesbingham] 02/6/2021 13:39

Couldn't resist sub 5p top up with dividend 1p round corner. Salinbas tarsvan kizeltepe Cyprus Kosovo new ventures with their cash pile. Bring it on

[bigglesbingham] 02/6/2021 13:27

I'm not sure there are other numerous sellers. I see a pattern of sells up to today which tell me someone feeding in sells to get minimum reduction in price. Today has a different feel to it as in just clear the residual because ain't an issue how it affects price. Just experience telling me but makes a great buying opportunity again.

[konil] 02/6/2021 13:26

latest rns shows the sowing of seeds for the longer term future. only needs one or two to take root and value accretion could be massive.

a big 'but' is the long term nature of the projects, which will not do much for the share price for quite some time, so we really need more info about progress on kizil, tavsan, salinbas, cyprus and of course the divi!

i still think all the above could, at least in short term, be put in the shade if pm prices show another leg of the bull.

[konil] 02/6/2021 13:19

linz, post 5620, yes i did read the andrew lane piece (thanks to plasybryn for opening up this line) and looked up all 3 related articles by lane which are written in a less technical but more accessible style than the macleod articles, though the macleod articles did also provide very good background to the topic.

on investing.com lane also has other articles about au, ag and usd/fed. its all on the bull side for pm, so obvious he is a mega pm bull. remains to be seen how basel3 pans out for gold.

[gaddy88] 02/6/2021 12:59

Awful price movement, market clearly not impressed.

[soulsauce] 02/6/2021 12:58

Soul destroying, excuse the pun.