Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[soulsauce] 31/5/2021 13:05

As all countries are carrying widely different debt levels, how could a gold price be agreed on that will eradicate debt.
What might eradicate debt in one country at say $10,000/oz, might not in another while some countries could become very rich and upset fragile stabilities.

[plasybryn] 31/5/2021 13:02

As private investors on own 1% of investments, if they revalued gold it would only effect a few and not cause too much chaos. I don't think it is worth speculating too much on all the different implications of Basil 111. I'm happy to sit back & see what happens. One thing I'm sure off, it can only be good for gold, so I don't need to worry.

[plasybryn] 31/5/2021 12:59

There are many very complex aspects to the full implementation of Basil 111 and Basil 1V is already scheduled as i understand for 2024! But moving gold to cash (valuing it at 100% of its value as a Tier 1 asset) is significant on its own. One theory is that gold could be revalued to such a level it would in effect eradicate the debt held. Do you get that? But that seems a simple solution but surely too extreme.

[plasybryn] 31/5/2021 12:55

It's interesting that everyone is main sceptical thinking it will be a damp Squibb. History tends to support that view. But so far it's been delayed years for various reasons. I suspect because the impact would be significant and the financial systems can't easily cope. As we are now just 1 month away it is getting pretty to defer it again. We will see.

[charles clore] 31/5/2021 12:27

t only will gold be classed as a tier 1 asset, meaning it will be much more attractive to banks as an asset class but also it wil have to be audited to verify its existence. I guess that means sample drilling of bars :-)

[soulsauce] 31/5/2021 11:56

Interesting Linz thanks.

I too believe that some sort of reset will eventually be in the offing but still might be a number of years off yet.

[linz22] 31/5/2021 11:29

Re the recent comments above about Basel 3; I tend to agree that it might well turn out to be something of a 'damp squib' as, frankly, I along with everyone else have been conditioned in such a way as to be unable to believe that the banking sector would implement such measures as to create its own downfall.

That said, I firmly believe that a "Great Reset" will not only be necessary but is already in the process of being engineered, and hence we should try to condition ourselves to be prepared to expect the unexpectable...

However, there is one specific and particularly relevant change in the status quo, foisted upon finance as a product of Basel 3, which is the change of gold from its current 'Tier 3', to its new status of a 'Tier 1' commodity, which means it'll be accounted for at 100% of its true value (as opposed to just 50% as at present), while sitting in bank vaults or wherever.

That in itself is singularly sufficient to have an inevitable positive impact on the overall POG.

[bigglesbingham] 31/5/2021 10:26

I personally don't feel the basel III will be allowed to have as big an impact as gold bulls hope. However again it shows Gold to be a commodity which is far from dead which leaves me with a comfort factor. I invest here for fundamentals, and subsequent to the merger as a self funding exploration company. The revenues will ultimately mean regular dividend but with our producing assets and v low production costs means we will not be too directly affected by increase in gold price imho. That being said we are woefully undervalued and the gold talk will induce new investment in gold miners and some will actually do enough research to find out the AAU story. Just wish it was a little easier to find. Tarsvan, salinbas, kepez, kizeltepe Cyprus new venture and of course the dividend which I reckon around 1p. Shareprophets reckon 0.7p. Nice narrative just tell it.

[soulsauce] 31/5/2021 09:07

I am of a similar mind carcosa.
I hope the commentators are right and the PoG gets a boost and along with it gold miners, but it wouldn't be the first theory on gold to disappoint in the same way the Reddit inspired silver rerate was thwarted earlier in the year.

[carcosa] 31/5/2021 08:58

All this Basel III/Gold reserves discussion... Why is it only being discussed in articles by gold pundits/rampers who have a long track record of loving conspiracy theories galore.

Whilst doing my own cursory research on the matter in response to what I have read here, it is apparent to me that the effect of Basel III and Gold wrt gold prices will be a damp squib; essentially a non-event. Other forces at play are far more powerful.

However, having a material interest for the price of gold to increase I am likely the beneficiary of such hype.

[crossfirecssf] 30/5/2021 23:24

Gold’s now completed its continuation correction pattern, as have AAU (in advance, which is a good sign). It’s onwards and upwards from here (however slowly!).

[plasybryn] 30/5/2021 15:58

A very considered and interesting response Linz22. Thanks

[linz22] 30/5/2021 14:58

Great piece by Andrew Lane. Thanks for posting that, Plas.

I spent much of the beginning of last week commenting on this very subject in response to a similar article from Alasdair Macleod, of GoldMoney, by casting doubt on the likelihood of Basel 3 regulations ever actually being effected as full implimentation of the new rules(plus auditing) might have a knock-on effect leading to the destruction of much of the present banking sector.

And, whilst the culling of a plethora of moribund banks may be openly lauded as beneficial to humanity by those of the understanding that the globally adopted 'central banking system' is the singlular cause of all the woes in the world today, and particularly its broken global economy, the same world population actually requires, and will continue to rely on, the services of the same commercial banks that'll most likely be killed off first. Ie. in the shape of; domestic mortgages, loans and wealth deposits, etc.

So, I tended to concur that some sort of 'watered down' version of Basel 3 will be a more likely scenario, rather than the BIS electing the 'nuclear option' first up and, for my part, raised the possibilty of an interim use of SDRs, which would be the equivalent of the IMF's own hard currency and is the last workable tool remaining in the box, so to speak...

All that said, considered on its own, the piece from Andrew Lane (albeit written as long ago as March) makes remarkable reading, and certainly raises the spectre of a potentially spectacular occurence from as soon as the 28th of next month, June 2021..!

All symptomatic, it has to be said, of signs of initiation of a "Great Reset", which will have to happen, in one form or another, as the global economy and finance are broken, and all the wealth squandered (hence the Biden admin's current and increasing orgy of money printing and extravagant universal 'stimulus', before the party's over..).

So, we'd all do well to brace ourselves for whatever that may bring. And, all eyes on 28th June for that...

[plasybryn] 30/5/2021 10:46

Follow up article in March from Andrew Lane:
"Basel III, Gold, The Dollar And The Great Reset"
By Andrew LaneCommoditiesMar 15, 2021 06:16AM E
 Andrew Lane
Basel III as outlined in my previous two articles, could lead to a dramatic change in gold prices with a serious fall out in other market sectors. With June 28 2021 approaching where the new NSFR standards become implemented, we look at how the dollar will react, and whether the Basel III implementation is a front for a much bigger macro event.
 
The most important characteristic of Basel III, the NSFR implemented by the BIS commences on the June 28 2021. The LBMA – who have tried and successfully pushed back for years – have been granted an extension to this (again) however this will likely not matter one iota as banks and countries for that matter are already signing up to compliance. Therefore while an extension has been granted to the LBMA, with the rest of the 63 countries acquiescent, it is hardly an allowance of exemption of the rules.
 
When considering the fallout this could have, at this juncture there are some analysts that believe this could be the end of the dollar (many still believe the dollar to be on its knees by the end of 2021 regardless of Basel III) and some that still cling on to its stature as the world’s reserve currency and it won’t be allowed to fail. Gold is money, and there’s an argument to say it’s a currency as its value is traded against the US dollar. If you buy gold you are effectively shorting the dollar or betting its value will decrease. Whilst there is obviously more to it than that, fiat currency has and continues to lose purchasing power over the years. Gold has always been a hedge or security against dollar debasing and inflation.
 
So how will this affect the dollar? Well there is a very interesting situation bubbling away and this comes from China. It is widely known that since the Basel III rules were announced the Chinese have been stockpiling gold. They also mine it so it is impossible to know exactly how much they have but many estimates claim around 20,000 Tonnes – way more than is currently declared.
If this is true, it well and truly trumps the USA’s stockpile. China has been trialling their new digital currency and it would make sense that this could be a pretext for a digital or cryptocurrency Gold backed format that will launch to rival or replace the dollar. It is no secret China wants their currency as the world’s reserve and in 2016 the IMF added the Yuan to The Special Drawing Rights basket. (although it sits with others and nothing has happened since) Notwithstanding this, the digital Yuan is ground breaking and could be unleashed as a gold backed currency. At the very least, the Chinese still see gold holdings as sine qua non. Perhaps their gold amassed1§ figure will be disclosed when Basel III is implemented as they see an opportunity to power in before others do.
 
Putting to one side the rumoured stockpile, China is less and less reliant upon the dollar now, and they are very well placed should it fail. However they aren’t the only big economy that is loosening ties. In the last decade Russia has dumped the dollar and quadrupled its gold holdings with Putin stating Russia is now not reliant on the US currency whatsoever. It is even rumoured there is an alliance between China and Russia on destroying the dollar. If the dollar was to fail and if the last year is anything to go by, the remainder of 2021 could see an explosion in commodity prices. History has taught us that financial systems move in cycles, and the dollar could be in its final stages.
 
So returning to the upcoming event, back in 2018 the World Gold Council stated that central banks, in response to the Basel III rule changes added 651 Tonnes of Gold to their reserves in 2018. This was a 50-year record. Bear in mind at the time Basel iii rules were scheduled to commence the next year. Before the Basel iii NSFR rules, banks holding Gold was costly and not particularly worthwhile as a Tier 3 asset. Now a Tier 1 asset, Gold is attractive to hold because it can and will be used as security to back lending, and potentially offset debt. Currently and for years the Tier 1 assets have consisted of Treasury Bonds and cash. Fiat as mentioned above loses purchasing power over time and Treasury Bonds come with other problems. Gold however carries no counterparty risk.
 
We know how manipulated futures markets are when paper trading accounts for more than 95% of market moves in gold. So what happens when paper gold isn’t traded anymore? After Basel III derivatives will still exist in the form of ETFs and such like, but it will push a physical market. The naked shorts have to unwind soon, and the price action over the last week is starting show signs of this. It may well push the end of derivatives as it could prove too costly with the new haircut imposed. So if central banks are full to the rafters with physical gold, countries stockpiling and the world reserve currency plummeting, are we heading towards a Gold backed standard again? Is the great monetary reset hidden behind Basel III? Let’s consider this possibility further.
 
Debt levels are the highest they have ever been and there is no strategy to suggest that this is going to turn around any time soon. In the US the Fed is printing $120bn a month consisting of $80bn in Treasury debt and $40bn in mortgage backed securities. I don’t think anyone believes the narrative that we are out the other end of this Covid collapse. The world GDP over the last year during lockdowns has tumbled and the jobs lost aren’t reappearing overnight. Economists are predicting anything from 2 to a whopping 30 years before we see pre Covid levels of output again. Whilst figures will suggest at the end of Q3 we have rebounded, we are nowhere near where we would be if Covid didn’t occur. The world has gone backwards, it has cost a fortune to hold together and someone has to pick up the bill for it all. There’s 180,000 small businesses in the US alone that aren’t reopening and have collapsed. At the current levels of treasury yields the US can’t pay back the interest on their loans let alone the actual debt. (Can a country be classed as insolvent?) How can that continue? So has there been a bigger plan brewing in the background for years here that we aren’t being told about? Is Basel iii going to be the answer?
 
The G20 leaders have been pushing this “Great Reset” agenda for some time. Biden even quoted the authors of the Great Reset with his “Build Back Better” motto. Kristalina Georgieva, MD of the IMF in Washington, even called for a Bretton Woods moment in Q4 of 2020. It would make sense wouldn’t it. Small banks that can’t afford to stack Gold close down leaving the cartel of the big boys to set a minimum Gold price. The higher the price of gold, the less debt the banks have. It’s like monetary magic policy. It’s so brazen you can see it happening.
 
By the time Basel IV rules kick in (January 2023) gold could have had its second revaluation event. So can you imagine a minimum price of gold, not just once, but twice? Some gold analysts have been touting this scenario for a while now. Why wouldn’t the price of Gold be used to offset debt the banks have? What other options are there? The debt clock in the US currently stands at $28 trillion, and this is not inclusive of the recently signed off Biden $1.9 trillion stimulus. This debt increases by $1 million dollars every 23 seconds. Money printing creates more available money and therefore leads to a weaker dollar. Basel III will lead to less Gold being available to trade creating a very tight supply/demand ratio.
 
According to almost all reports on net trading figures, less than 1% of traders across the world hold gold in their portfolios. What could the price of gold get to, when paper disappears and this figure jumps to even 3% of physical, let alone higher? It feels like we are on the precipice of huge change here. The banking system is broken and needs a huge overhaul, and this could be it. This Keynesian approach just isn’t working.  
 
Crazy numbers have been thrown around on what gold prices could rise to, and I’ll leave you to form your own opinion on what big industry analysts are predicting. However if we were to remove all the “could” out of the noise around Basel III, one key fact is clear: The NSFR will considerably reduce, if not completely eliminate naked shorting of paper gold by the big banks. They have to have a provable 1:1 ratio of physical gold which will be audited to trade or use it. Paper gold and derivatives will become incredibly expensive and will be traded far, far less.
This alone will lead to price discovery, a fair price for Gold. What that price is we will find out on the June 28 2021 and beyond. If the dollar does collapse then we could be talking numbers beyond our wildest dreams. No wonder many big name precious metal analysts are calling this the most significant event of their careers.

[plasybryn] 29/5/2021 15:29

Thanks for the article. I’m aware of all these issues but strange he omits to mention the audit. I imagine that must be causing some Banks a real headache. If that isn't a problem for them, then the next issue will be a positive as it will allow them to treat gold as a Tier one asset in their balance sheet. Currently gold is only valued at 50% of its value I believe which means the incentive to hold has been questionable. Now it’s Teir I, it will be treated as cash. Will they want to increase the amount of gold they hold?

[auphilman] 29/5/2021 12:17

Thanks Plas, wasn't aware of this date



very good article linked above underlining this upcoming event, worth reading. Interesting to see if there will be any effect and if it will reduce manipulation.

[plasybryn] 29/5/2021 10:55

My tweet today:-Basel 111 comes in end of June for Euro. banks, I believe . They will have their gold holdings audited prior to implementation date. If they have shortfalls (heaven forbid) they will no doubt need to buy gold. The U.K. goes live 6 months later to give our Banks time to prepare!

[soulsauce] 28/5/2021 21:58

It was a bit out of character for you Renniks. Glad to hear the day got better 😉👍

[renniks2016] 28/5/2021 21:43

Soul, yeah, ;) I suppose it was bit strong for a Friday morning, and didn't manage to pitch any up this morning, meeting all day, but happier after picking up another 100k this afternoon, nearly forgot it is bank holiday Monday, and I like Tuesdays;) ?

[8rad] 28/5/2021 19:31

Jammie dodgers.... I am more worried less about future jammies than yesterday jammies....if you know your sweets from your sours.

[soulsauce] 28/5/2021 16:11

You feeling better after this morning's rant Renniks?

[renniks2016] 28/5/2021 16:07

Mine running cost must be at all time low!

[bigglesbingham] 28/5/2021 12:14

As far as I'm aware The estate didn't own any options.

[charles clore] 28/5/2021 12:07

Biggles - would any outstanding options also be cashed in and sold as part of the estate?