Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[temujiin] 07/1/2021 10:31

BB, the impression/tone I got from reading this board, was just getting final agreements between parties would see an share price uplift, then getting the deal voted on would do it, now it's getting regulatory approval is the point of value creation and share price uplift. I just don't see regulatory approval making too much difference, though happy to be wrong.

I see other drivers as more important for a rising SP, as listed earlier.

[bigglesbingham] 07/1/2021 10:16

Sorry but when you say the deal priced in I assumed you meant the value is priced in which I don't agree with.

[temujiin] 07/1/2021 10:04

Kirbs, I can't and don't expect everyone to always like my tone, as I don't others, but thankfully this board is 99% polite whatever tones people take.

[temujiin] 07/1/2021 10:02

BB, I'm not saying what the company is worth, I'm saying the market is valuing AAU at 5p a share and that I don't see the near term drivers to take it much higher until after the JV gets full approval and the partners stop talking and stuff starts happening. AAU might be worth £151m, but at the moment it's value is £51m.

Linz, I know there were some who didn't agree with the deal, but nobody, including myself (as H-L didn't do as I messaged and I didn't follow it up) voted against the deal. It was 99.99% going to pass so made no odds what a few pebbles thought. I too think AAU will do just fine, just not as quickly as hoped.

[1candc] 07/1/2021 09:55

I suppose Schadenfreude is to be expected on occasion while we patiently wait for some stimulus to wake the share price up again

[kirbs4] 07/1/2021 09:53

No, but you did highlight people's forecasted so then say they are frustrated because it isn't doing it... That is my point.. Those forecasts were post-deal. Its splitting hairs anyway, we actually agree on several of the underlying points, I just wish you'd avoid the "I told you so" tone for several reasons.

[soulsauce] 07/1/2021 09:31

Yep that is what he is saying. There are Aim companies in the mining sector just kicking dirt about on their poxy licences valued at much more than that.

[linz22] 07/1/2021 09:30

For what it's worth, Temujiin, I also didn't agree with the sale (so not quite 100% disagreement). I also don't subscribe to the notion of there being a big 'seller in the background', beieving it to be most likely just trading.

However, all that said, I still strongly believe in the future prospects of this investment, an excellent company, BoD and, most importantly, fundamentals. None of that has changed, only the timing of this investment coming to fruition.

It's clearly frustrating for many that such a timescale has been extended somewhat, and without clarity as to by how long, but it just means that what might've been seen as an opportunity to double one's money within a few months has simply reverted to a longer term strategy for this investment to innevitably realise its full potential.

Yes, there are other 'get rich quick' opportunities out there at the moment, in the face of a bull-run in PMs, (eg. EUA, GGP, UFO recently), hence the innevitability of this stock being traded, but ultimately it's only a question of sentiment, and faith, and I for one see AAU as a high value, dividend paying, cash-cow in the future.

In summary, there's little point squabbling about whether there's a perennial seller, or if Kerim's unable to deliver. The JV serves primarilly to accelerate the fortunes of this company (ie. not to preserve 100% of its assets for posterity) and hopefully that goal might now, or shortly, be acheived. Simply put, if you think you can make a quicker buck elsewhere then go for it, as some obviously are doing. But, remember, this game is not about choosing the right investments, it's about getting your timing right, and I wouldn't want to be out of here when the next good news comes through. As such, I'm still accumulating - with the intention of getting as much into an ISA as possible.

Each to their own, though...

[bigglesbingham] 07/1/2021 09:27

Assuming deal done?

[bigglesbingham] 07/1/2021 09:27

So current market cap £51m they will receive cash £27m so your saying you think the current markets cap for all share of assets held is £24m? Have I got that correct Tem??

[temujiin] 07/1/2021 09:23

I know the deal isn't signed yet Kirbs, which is why I carefully said 'voted for' :)
I doubt the share price will rise once it is signed, it's priced in already imo, but happy to be proved wrong. share price drivers will be POG leaping, and material progress on exploration and increased gold extraction.

[kirbs4] 07/1/2021 09:11

But Tem the deal isn't signed yet, so any predictions of the impact aren't priced in (christ I thought the "it hasn't happened yet" responses went away once the Brexit deal was finalised :) . I certainly don't think it will rise to 10p any longer, but you aren't at the point where you are assessing the post deal share price yet, which is what most people were calculating.Also, yes of course it is the share price that people are frustrated with, but you don't just stop at the share price you ask why, and we will all have our assumptions there, mine is that the share price is where it is due to communciation/timeline.

[uknighted] 07/1/2021 09:10

Hey Dixi, how many shares do you have ? :-))

[temujiin] 07/1/2021 09:09

LOL. I think 10p is a massive stretch Dixi, near to medium term, but possible next year once plans are progressed and of course any majorly great grades at Salinbas and all bets are off.

[paul280i] 07/1/2021 09:07

dixi, 2 years ago I would have said the same for 5p a share.

[dixi] 07/1/2021 09:00

I'd be happy to get down on my knees for 10p a share. No shame here :-)

[kaos3] 07/1/2021 04:20

you are all real gentlemen for disagree without being personal and calling each other names. high quality. Thank you all. keep it up ! very precious.

[bigglesbingham] 06/1/2021 22:33

Well I'm still bull ha ha and remain so ! There have been communication issues which have been discussed and we be discussed further I'm sure. Point is the fundamentals are excellent now until deal and thereafter. Just frustrating that people are not seeing it.

[soulsauce] 06/1/2021 21:47

Ahhh good old Tem been waiting for his take the high ground told you so moment for a full year but as you rightly say Kirbs, misplaced.
He was that against the JV he didn't even have the conviction of following his vote through to make sure it had been registered.

[kirbs4] 06/1/2021 21:41

Tem I agree with your sentiments, but I think you misplace the disagreements you had with people earlier in the year. I only recall conversations about whether the deal was right or not, and I don't think anyone has changed their stance on that? So "I told you so" doesn't really hold any weight.As I and others have stated recently, the issue is again with the "How", and the time it has taken, both of which have led to me personally taking some off the table late in the year.My stance on the deal hasn't changed, in my view it is still the right thing for the company and will lead eventually to the value being realised. The fact they have committed to several timelines and missed them is for me the thing that leads to the share price languishing due to trust in management (particularly on AIM), not the deal itself.Ultimately, what you or I think is actually irrelevant anyway, you vote with your money as I have done. It isn't about being right from the off, it is about recognising where you are going to end up and that picture is never fixed.

[soulman] 06/1/2021 20:35

Is the time to buy when the last bull turns bearish?