Ariana Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bigglesbingham] 19/11/2020 18:59

The sells instigated to drop rather that the sellers preempted the drop. I had a plan to realise the excess above 3% and that allowed me to drip feed into the market at a very low rate over a long time thus not impacting on the price. Unfortunately it's clear some sold over a very short space of time with no regard as to the consequence to other investors. Sharp sells in a tightly held share hit the price simple as that. KS sells may have hurt sentiment but they didn't affect the supply demand dynamic as they were clearly sold in one transaction probably to institution. I don't think there's anything sinister it's just supply and demand. Some are getting bored with the wait and they are choosing to leave which affects price.

[kaos3] 19/11/2020 18:58

latest drop - I could not figure out - what the hell the chart wants once again

I did post the other day DT and H&S-makes no reasonable sense

when there are only khmmmm translations to be made... and signature

And today I posted why imho the chart went down - 15% CB interest rate

probably FX controls there to accompany latest Turkish SHTF etc and hence I also politely asked if anyone knows todays regime about FX regarding import export (of the capital)

[paul280i] 19/11/2020 18:55

Cyberbub, it doesn't cost the Turkish Government anything to print more Lire they just produce them out of thin air like all governments are doing. That's why they have high inflation rates but lots of gold, some of which could be used to buy oil from Iran who probably won't take Turkish Lire.

[charles clore] 19/11/2020 18:51

Kaos - so what did the sellers know? We know the price dropped and we know there has been delays in closing the JV deal. But we don't exactly know why?

[kaos3] 19/11/2020 18:45

I am not pessimist at all. I had and have a problem with discrepancy - the published facts and intentions vs chart. And reading the posts - most have the same problem for a year.

And the chart was right all the time - is what I would like to say

It knows!! more than what is being said. Chart knew the future !

I would not be here if I thought AAU is not a good prospect with a further potential -

[bigglesbingham] 19/11/2020 18:41

Million purchased at 2:30 this aft at 5.2

[bigglesbingham] 19/11/2020 18:33

Don't think your pessimism is justified. A $52m market cap at 4p with $35m cash coming in??? So that values all assets held by company at $17m !!! Really ????

[kaos3] 19/11/2020 18:29

what amazes me is how well TA knows better then reasonbale and informed investors mind without any insider insight

it is one year since I follow AAU and the chart was right most of the time despite my different reasoning (which was much more bullish) and chart was right once again - I just did not know why the latest drop.

some big ones knew and were selling

[cyberbub] 19/11/2020 17:59

With the JV delay and the slow decline of the POG, unfortunately the chart is starting to look very H&S-like. We need some news ASAP or else I fear there may be a fall back to 4p :-(

[charles clore] 19/11/2020 17:06

Apparently the Turkish govt has been accumulating gold more than any other nation recently so that doesn't make them a seller

[cyberbub] 19/11/2020 17:03

Plasbryn I don't think anyone can realistically compare debt/GDP ratios this year with Covid! (Or potentially for the next few years...)

[cyberbub] 19/11/2020 17:02

Whether the Turkish Govt pays in Lira or USD, if it's at the official exchange rate then it makes no difference (assuming AAU exchange into USD sharpish!!). Is the price the Govt pay AAU for its gold the official USD/TRL rate?My main point was why the Govt would see it as a revenue opportunity to buy gold and sell it abroad.

[plasybryn] 19/11/2020 16:39

I think you'll find that Turkey's debt to GDP ratio is far lower than ours, although the MSM don't want you to know that for some reason.

[paul280i] 19/11/2020 16:05

I've not checked but the accounts will show the sales in US dollars

[kaos3] 19/11/2020 15:27

red imp - exactly my point to clear - in such a country usually 2 exchange rates prevail - an official one and the market one

[red imp] 19/11/2020 15:24

Cyberhub. The Turkish Government pay AAU in Lira. AAU then exchange it for USD at the daily rate. The Turkish Government no doubt sell it for USD.

[cyberbub] 19/11/2020 14:47

Surely if the Turkish Govt are buying gold from us at USD market price, then it's not a massive money-making opportunity for them to sell it abroad? They could only possibly make a 5% trading profit, or (more likely) they just stash it in their vaults as a store of value as the POG hopefully keeps climbing?

[corrientes] 19/11/2020 14:24

Charles Clore - I agree that Turkey is a net exporter of gold, and therefore it's of utmost importance to the economy, so it makes me wonder just what the heck is is going on, or not going on. I don't like this situation one bit, but then I've only got a small investment here,

[charles clore] 19/11/2020 14:07

Corrie - Erdogan is well aware that gold is his county's lifeblood. I doubt he would be so rash as to deliberately delay approvals for what may turn out to be one of his most important sources of revenue. In fact I would think he is more likely to encourage a speedy conclusion to the deal.

[pedr01] 19/11/2020 13:41

1358: ADVFN boards are public boards so you can actually view the discussion without logging in (or being a member). It's what I do the majority of the time and only login to post.

[corrientes] 19/11/2020 13:38

Hope that nothing happens in Turkey/Cyprus to upset the applecart. Emperor Erdogan might be getting just a little bit too big for his boots, with delusional visions of aping illustrious predecessors, whilst of course, letting the economy crumble, partly on account of his overseas adventurism.

This could indirectly be affecting AAU, and nobody really knows how much politics is influencing the mining delay, though doubtless there are far more informed people here.

[alchemist5] 19/11/2020 13:25

Joined to make a comment cyberbub - had a small interest 4/5 years ago but have accumulated regularly in the last 2 years

[cyberbub] 19/11/2020 13:16

How long have you been a holder alchemist? You just joined ADVFN today it seems.

[alchemist5] 19/11/2020 13:14

I watch all of the comments with interest on this board, and to add to the comments of iron storm / paul.

The debate a year ago was healthy between support or non support of the JV with the advocates against the deal talking about the rising price of gold and not wanting dilution. A year on the debt has been paid down and the delay in concluding the JV will give a significant rise in profits for this financial year.

The company stands in such a strong position and although we continue to trade between 5-6p waiting for the conclusion each trade supports a base at a higher entry level with aspirations for greater growth.

I have too much share of my portfolio in this share but have continued to add as I believe with each piece of news through the year on fundamentals we become de risked.

Maybe we will look back on the frustrating delay and smile with a fine glass of wine and reflect it was no bad thing,
I remain a firm hold buying on weakness