Arian Silver Share Discussion Threads

[boadicea] 27/8/2015 20:04

My understanding of AISC is that it is a mid to long term indicator accounting for (inter alia) the cost of replacement of resources, replacement of machinery etc. In the short term this can be deferred at the cash flow level by converting resources to cash and not replacing them. Hence the cash cost of production will be lower than the AISC and a potential liquidity crisis averted.
That does not, of course, indicate a bright future for the company - merely the ability to survive for a time making an accounting loss but with a positive or neutral cash flow.
This provides a margin of time for pos to turn up.

However, I believe that a significant part of the negativity about AGQ arises from a certain scepticism about achieving forecast production levels or cost targets. We are woefully short on solid information on which to base any judgement and until audited output, sales and cost data are published there is little hope (imho) of rebuilding any confidence.

[charles clore] 27/8/2015 19:38

Pixi your post reminded me of the old days lol

[pixi] 27/8/2015 18:05

A good finish on my first day here in a long time. The tide is turning for precious metals. Is that smell shorter's burning? Lol

[charles clore] 27/8/2015 17:28

A nice finish - about time! Because of its low liquidity this share tends to make large moves on modest volume. I can see this going places in the near future.

[11_percent] 27/8/2015 11:13

Keep selling.

[charles clore] 27/8/2015 11:01

Thomas11 - very good point made regarding viability below the AISC. I am here only because I believe the current spot price of silver is too low and cannot continue. There will be less produced which will lead to a world shortage (1) squeezing the market to pay a higher price (2). Already we are hearing of reduced production and coin shortages at world mints. So we have reached stage (1). Stage (2) to follow soon imho.

And we have here an unhedged silver producer with a shedload of silver and a market cap of - less than £7m

[pixi] 27/8/2015 08:37

In for a giggle.

[thomas11] 26/8/2015 19:39

I can't believe how misleading the August PResentation is on the company website. it has made no attempt to update the presentation in light of the new PoS.

Before the company produces Silver the all in cost is $14.15. With POS below this value where is the future !

It is now entering the "death zone" and unless The PoS rises this is going bankrupt and the share price trending to nothing.

I am watching, hoping PoS will rise, until then just watching

GLA

[charles clore] 21/8/2015 14:52

In his last interview I noticed Jim cast a slight shadow of a doubt on the success of the company by implying that the silver price needed to improve if they were to be successful. Knowing how expensive and uncertain a new mining venture can be I would not be surprised if that remark had not put some people off. We do need higher silver if AGQ is to do well. That has not happened - yet. When it does I expect to see the punters piling in.

[m w] 21/8/2015 11:10

calling the bottom here and in for punt

[bikwik] 13/8/2015 00:16

One more important point is this:

If gold gets to $7000 or even only just US$5000, that would mean that the world was in serious problems, and more to the point.....that many banks would be going under. So, I would have thought that calling in loans, would be the order of the day for those banks that thought they had a chance of survival. In such a desperate situation, which of course it would be by then, any loan no matter how sound the business was to which it related, and that ironically could include gold and Silver miners, would be called in.

That would have the effect of reducing the supply of gold and Silver when everyone wanted it, thus creating the conditions for an almighty surge to unheard of price extremes. Well that's something to think about.

Message to Gold and Silver companies is if you have debt, then make sure you pay it off as quick as you can, or even sooner!

[bikwik] 12/8/2015 23:57

Something else which is very important here is that from the Dow/Gold chart you will notice that it has been going up since 2011, not down as I am looking for. Well of course that is due to the four year downswing that Gold has been in since US$1920. That decline is now turning around as the US Stock markets have begun to turn downwards. I think we are at about the point in September 1976 when the ratio saw a rally peak at 8.66 before going sharply lower.

Gold had retraced nearly 50% from the Jan 1975 high of $US197 to hit US$103.50 two years later in August 1976. Notice how the price at the 2011 peak of US$1920 and recent low of US$1071 are about ten times those earlier figures. Probably just a coincidence but spooky all the same.

So, when gold took off it rose 820% in four years to reach $850. This time if it does the same, either due to roaring inflation as the Fed panics to deflate away the debt or a depression takes hold when the FED throws in the towel, then gold will peak at US1071 x 8.2 = US$8782. Not too different to my possibly more likely target of US$7000 rather than US$5000.

All sounds a bit far fetched. However, who had heard of JK Rowling before Harry Potter or that the Titanic was unsinkable or even that the instigator of World War One was the queen of England's grandson, the Kaiser!

[charles clore] 12/8/2015 23:46

The mind boggles BIKWIK - but that is why I am invested in several underpriced juniors right now.

[bikwik] 12/8/2015 23:32

So if Silver narrows the gap with gold, which it always does when they are both going up, then getting back to around 40 would put silver at US$125 (Gold at US$5000) or US$175 (Gold US$7000).



If it gets back to 1980's level, ie around 15 then the figures would be an amazing US$333 and US$466, respectively. Sounds far fetched now I know, but who would have guessed gold at US$1920 in Year 2001 (Gold around US$250) Gordon Brown certainly didn't!

So, what price Arian Silvers shares then I wonder.

[bikwik] 12/8/2015 22:17

I have several other observations to make as well:

1 Arian Silver is a sitting duck for a takeover bid by another Silver company. The one that has caught my eye is Fortuna Silver Resources. This is a mid-Tier Silver producer in Mexico and Peru. I think they are on track to produce 6million plus ozs this year, so about three times the full production of Arian.

Point is they only have about 45 million in Silver reserves and they need to increase this significantly. As of 30 June 2015 they had US$110 million in cash. Arians mkt cap is about one tenth of Fortuna's cash resources and they have Silver resources of 117million ounces.

This from Fortuna's website:

About Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

Fortuna is a growth oriented, silver and base metal producer focused on mining opportunities in Latin America. Our primary assets are the Caylloma silver Mine in southern Peru and the San Jose silver-gold Mine in Mexico. The company is selectively pursuing acquisition opportunities throughout the Americas. For more information, please visit our website at www.fortunasilver.com.

Interesting I thought.

[bikwik] 12/8/2015 21:57

I agree with you about big moves upward, yes possibly after the overhang from the Sprott Sell-off, if there is an overhang of course. I would have thought these may have already been bought by other institutions.

Personally I think it is the overhang from the JW interview on 3rd August. Jim always says it as it is, no embellishments to gloss up the story like other CEO's. Having said that I think the market is missing an opportunity here.

I like Fresnillo as well, though it is a heavy weight so its not going to go up as much as smaller companies in the same sector. It will of course rise by a significant amount, but the scope for Arian Silver, once it gets over this sentiment overhang, is going to fly. That's why you, me, WS, SAF, plus all the others have bought shares in an historically grossly undervalued area. I think this chart is worth a thousand words:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[charles clore] 12/8/2015 13:16

BIKWIK - this hasn't reacted to the recent silver rally and I suspect that is due to the price being suppressed by the Sprott selloff. But - I am expecting big moves upward once Sprott is finished here so I am making preparations for that and taking full advantage of the opportunity to top up. Also, if silver goes above $16 I believe the market will step in and clear out the overhang. Owning the likes of FRES and AGQ is almost as good as holding physical with the advantage of it being much easier to store and trade. I believe it is prudent to use both methods of stacking and avoid paper trading such as ETFs like the plague..

[bikwik] 10/8/2015 22:55

Yes Charles I think you are right. No that's not strictly true, you are right:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[goldenshare888] 10/8/2015 22:26

With the Sprott selling cleared this could now double with Silver moving up also.

[leedskier] 10/8/2015 21:49

I assumed it was redemptions. Canada is some trouble.

[charles clore] 10/8/2015 20:23

Very interesting. It seems Sprott has clients getting impatient and is having to sell off its investments. But it's nothing to worry about, quite the contrary. It's a buy signal imho. Sprott sold its Stratex holding a few weeks ago and since then the share price has almost doubled.

[leedskier] 10/8/2015 17:10

Interesting RNS.