Arian Silver Share Discussion Threads

[mostyn] 21/5/2015 13:43

BIKWIK,

Thanks for the reply/clarification. I agree that Arian does look very undervalued. It's interesting, looking at the chart, that they have been given no credit for actually going into production and the share price is still hovering around the lows. Most mining stocks at least see a ramp up in the share price when they approach production but this has not, so far, been the case for Arian.

I do like the look of silver and gold and believe (rightly or wrongly) that these markets will be the name of the game over the next few years. If I'm right there will be multiples to go for in the Arian share price. With an all in cost of $14 per ounce I wonder where the share price would be if the price of silver went back even to $25 an ounce, and some commentators are predicting much higher prices.

[bikwik] 21/5/2015 13:29

Yes I agree SS (oh that's a bit WW2)

Could be a bull flag that's been forming since Friday's rebound.

[bikwik] 21/5/2015 13:24

Just one more thing, groan. Well it is about Arian this time.

When all those punters, investors start sniffing around for precious metal plays, when they see that the game is up for the main Stock Markets, some of the smarter ones out there will realise they should be in Silver stocks. And of course you can't even count on one hand the number Silver stocks there are quoted in London. The smallest as we all know is Arian and that is the only "penny stock" which, though not in the same league as Fresnillo and Hochschild, has got to be the most exciting prospect by far.

[soulsauce] 21/5/2015 13:21

Graph not loooking bad BIKWIK

[bikwik] 21/5/2015 12:51

As far as Zinc production was concerned, I'm pretty sure it was within a couple of weeks, so pretty imminent.

[bikwik] 21/5/2015 12:49

Mostyn, I can answer some of your questions already, you really should pay attention.

From my post after the AGM.

The 5000m drilling campaign results are now being analysed (by third parties of course) and I asked JW when we could expect an RNS. Looks like about 4-6 weeks, as they need independent testing and verification. A lot of people are too impatient i'd say.

In terms of by the end of this year we are looking at a throughput of 750-1000 tonnes per day of ore. So by the middle of next year they should be up to 1500 tonnes per day.

As far as I can see all is going according to plan and this remains mistakenly a very undervalued Silver stock which is "definitely" producing Silver and Lead. Sure, not zillions of the stuff yet but they are clearly on an upward path. The first load of Silver and Lead has already been sold to MRI.

[mostyn] 21/5/2015 11:56

Is anyone going to the presentation tonight, and would be willing to ask a few questions if the topic was not covered.

- current rate of production
- when do they expect to reach 1500 tons per day
- when will zinc production start
- when will the results of the drilling campaign be known (these should be soon)
- are there any near term plans to develop other licences
- when do they expect to become cash flow positive
- when do they expect to become profitable

These things should all be covered, but just in case...

[charles clore] 19/5/2015 17:17

Once again spot silver struggles against the algorithm.

[bikwik] 19/5/2015 17:09

Hi SAF, just sent you an e-mail.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 19/5/2015 15:24

Nice little vertical drop in Ag price. A 3% fall in an instant, one does not feel this is a legitimate market.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 19/5/2015 15:07

AGQ is a primary Ag producer with byproduct credits being Pb and Zn. We have streamed 78% of Zn and Pb to Quintana but retain 22% for our ourselves as well as some upside for the other 78% that has been streamed.

So we are predominantly a play on the PoS but what happens to Pb and Zn could have a significant effect upon our p/l.

[charles clore] 19/5/2015 14:58

Is Arian a silver producer as a by-product of zinc, or of lead? Why is the company known as Arian Silver?

[bikwik] 19/5/2015 13:34

It starts to get interesting for us from paragraph 3, then later on the section regarding Glencore and Zinc, which of course is pertinent to Arian Silver.

[bikwik] 19/5/2015 13:32

Came across this recent Chairman's statement from Mineral and Financial Investments. Vey interesting particularly about metal prices and Zinc in particular.

05 May 2015

MINERAL & FINANCIAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Chairman's Statement:

Since our last NAV update we believe markets have continued to be relatively immune from wider economic issues. The Greek situation remains unresolved, however most observers - save the Greek ones - appear, in our opinion, to be sanguine about Greece either defaulting and/or exiting the Euro. Additionally, we believe the US markets are confronted with a classic "damned if they do, and damned if they don't" scenario. The view that we see as being more popular is that US rates will rise sometime in the next 3 to 4 months. The real possibility is that US economic performance may be insufficient to prompt the Fed to increase rates. Neither will, to our minds, be encouraging to equity markets.

US interest rates are the foundation of most of the world's bond markets, so a rise in US rates would impact world bond markets. As much as the world wishes to believe that equity yields will support equity markets through a rise in rates, we do not support this view. In brief we remain cautious on equity markets.

Nevertheless, we believe that the foundations for a revival in mining markets are being put in place. There is positive demand growth for most metals, and flat - to declining production of most metals. We believe the strong US dollar has blurred the improvements occurring in the commodity markets. This strong dollar has exerted pressure on USD commodity prices generally, and was an important cause for the slight weakening of our NAV in the period. Using as a proxy for the US dollar the DXY index, J.P. Morgan's trade weighted US dollar index, the US dollar rose from its trough of 79.06 in May of 2014 to a high of 100.33 March 2015 (+26.9%). We believe this is extraordinary volatility for what remains the world's "reserve" currency, and is perhaps telling of increasing market risk. From a mining industry standpoint, as for most commodities, the price of commodities is fixed in US Dollars. However, in currencies other than the USD the performance of metals prices has been good, and in some cases very good.

In the table below commodity prices have been taken at the DXY's 12 month high, low and current levels and the impact of the DXY/USD 'adjusted' to exclude its impact. To use gold as an example, the price of gold in USD declined 8.0% from $1,310/oz. to $1,205/oz. However, on trade-weighted basis when buying gold in Yen, Euros, or Rupees, the price of gold was up 11.7%.

Commodity Low High Current % Ch. Current
----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------------
May 6, March 13, April 28, vs. May 6,
2014 2015 2015 2014
DXY 79.06 100.3 95.95 21.4%
Metal Prices adjusted for DXY
changes
Gold $1,310.28 $1,469.71 $1,463.12 11.7%
Silver $19.60 $19.66 $20.16 2.8%
Platinum $1,450.00 $1,418.36 $1,402.96 -3.2%
Iron Ore $115.00 $72.24 $71.71 -37.6%
Copper $3.15 $3.36 $3.37 6.9%
Zinc $0.93 $1.15 $1.25 34.8%
Aluminium $0.78 $0.98 $1.01 29.7%
Uranium $29.25 $49.79 $47.15 61.2%


There continues, in our opinion, to be a very serious lack of capital in the market place for junior resource companies. We also believe this is creating a scenario, which will result in insufficient new capacity coming on stream in many metal commodities within the next few years.

For example, according to Glencore global demand for zinc has risen by 3.7% YoY between 2012 & 2014, and Glencore should know - it's the world's largest producer and supplier. This growth translates into incremental demand of 550,000 tonnes to 600,000 tonnes of new zinc demand annually. Furthermore, Glencore believes there will be approximately 3 million tonnes of zinc concentrates needed over the next 5 years. In that period only 600,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes of net new supply is expected from non-Chinese producers.

In the short term, zinc has seen its LME inventories drop by 60% to about 475,000 tonnes in the past 2.5 years. LME inventories now represent less than 3 weeks of global demand. The point we wish to make is that zinc, as many other metals, has been severely afflicted by a shortage of capital, resulting in an insufficient pipeline of projects to satisfy global demand.

We continue to review possible strategic investment opportunities. We continue to be disciplined and prudent in our search for suitable investment opportunities for our shareholders.

Jacques Vaillancourt

Executive Chairman

[soulsauce] 18/5/2015 19:51

Nice presentation ;-)

[bikwik] 18/5/2015 18:53

Also, if you take a look at the slow stochastic indicator, note how it has only just rebounded from oversold and, like at previous low points, it takes a couple of weeks or so before it gets fully overbought and the downswing commences.

As I have said before this is purely my technical observations of price action. News items, fundamental perceptions of said news items and anything else that comes to light will all play their part in the resulting dealings in the market that influence the movement in the price trend. As the meeting on Thursday comes slap bang in the middle, well pretty much, of the current forecast upswing, then that may too play its part.

[bikwik] 18/5/2015 18:42

I've taken a look at previous upward cycles and how long they typically last. In generally firmer trends (i.e. in Nov and Dec) and also when the bear trend is beginning to mature (March and April), then the rises tend to be steeper as bulls tend to outweigh the bears.

So, taking that observation into account for the current upswing which started on Friday, we should see a fairly steep angle of ascent. Also, up cycles tend to last for between 8 and 15 days before the downswing begins. I have based the target date of 1st June on 11 trading days. On this upswing we should complete the base pattern and also breach the key 33.5p resistance. The target from the base pattern takes us to 39p, which is also the higher side of the trading range from at least September of last year.

Also, note how the latest MACD buy signal is very close to zero and thus the MACD should trend higher in the positive upper half of the scale. Being in this upper side denotes a rising trend, and while it remains in said zone the price should keep trending higher.

[bikwik] 18/5/2015 18:06

Ok, now we are close to completing the reverse head and shoulders base I've had a reasonably detailed look at the initial upside scope and possible time scale for this to happen. This of course is based upon price action of ALL participants as opposed to one individual soggy tin can.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[irnbru2] 18/5/2015 16:45

Much has now happened to negate the perma-bear stance.

------

No it has not.

We still don't know what is being produced.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 18/5/2015 16:07

Some nice pictures in this, the April presentation:

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 18/5/2015 11:46

Those investors who want to know more about Arian and of course if it's convenient to do so, ought to hear the presentation on Thursday. Probably wise to ignore much of the drivel written by those with a perma-bearish agenda on this company and hear what the company itself has to say. Much has now happened to negate the perma-bear stance.

[aim_trader] 18/5/2015 11:27

Arian Silver will be presenting to investors on Thursday May 21st in Mayfair. To register to attend, click here:

[mostyn] 18/5/2015 09:25

There seems to have been a bit more interest recently with the run up in the price of silver. Hopefully this will continue, as there should be news due from Arian on production progress, and the results from recent drilling. The upcoming presentation at proactiveinvestors may shed more light on where they currently stand.