Arian Silver Share Discussion Threads

[leedskier] 16/6/2015 09:25

BIKWIK, look forward to seeing your posts in a couple of months.Take care and best wishes.

[charles clore] 16/6/2015 09:00

Good luck with the surgery BIKWIK

[gekks] 16/6/2015 08:26

Best of luck BIKWIK

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 16/6/2015 08:00

Seasonality in the PM's is something missed by many.

[bikwik] 16/6/2015 00:32

One last thing. Last November Gold posted its low ($1131) for the 3-4 year move down from $1920. This was 34 years from the 1980 peak, a Fibonacci number. Previous important highs and lows from 1980 fitted the Fibonacci sequence at 3, 5, 8, 13 and 21. The last was the bottom in 2001!!

I know there are people calling for sub $1131, they may be right. However, as all the Fibonacci numbers before 34 have worked so far I'm sticking with it.

[bikwik] 16/6/2015 00:13

As you know a few months ago I had been looking for Gold and Silver to break over their April highs, which they both did. However, these moves did not go as far as I was expecting. Seasonally an advance in May was expected, though historically this is not the best rise, something I clearly overlooked.

Also, the seasonal downswing in late May to early June hit both Gold and Silver. That I think was part, possibly most, of the reason why Arians drilling results did not sustain a share price recovery. In fact of course the price has dropped back along with Silver (and Gold). However now we are due a seasonal rally in Gold from the 10th trading day in June (if you read the article you'll see that mentioned). This fits in with the rally I was expecting (posted several days back) given the recent failed downward break. The price has now bounced back into the range and has scope to test the $1210 area approx.

Then the seasonal chart predicts a drop back to late-July before Gold embarks on one of its best rallies to the Early October high.

I think there is a smaller head and shoulders forming (since the March low around $1140) that represents the right shoulder! of the LARGER head and shoulders base. I hope you are with me so far! This occurrence is mentioned in the classic cycles book by J M Hurst entitled "The profit magic of stock transaction timing". I first borrowed it in 1989 but recently bought a copy. I digress slightly.

Anyway, the first paragraph of the Adam Hamilton article is worth showing here:

Gold Seasonals Bottoming

By: Adam Hamilton | Fri, Jun 12, 2015

Gold remains deeply out of favor, languishing near major lows. Traders are still convinced gold is going nowhere, and want nothing to do with it. But provocatively that's par for the course in early June, when gold slumps to its most-important seasonal low. Gold's seasonals are now bottoming, just ahead of the usual major surges in global gold demand coming in late summer and autumn. This is a fantastic time to buy.

I notice too that Arian is oversold and back on 28p support so I suppose an opportunity now presents it self. Of course it may not break out over 31p-33p just yet, but September may be much more interesting.

I am going in for heart surgery this week, so won't be posting for a couple of months. Hopefully after two months recovery I should be back. Good luck to all, particularly TG (met you at the AGM and presentation) and Jay over on iii. BIKWIK

[bikwik] 15/6/2015 23:41

I always scan the safehaven website for interesting articles. This is by Adam Hamilton (12th June) entitled...Gold Seasonals Bottoming. The link is:



It basically describes how the price movement of Gold tends to follow a similar pattern each year. Obviously no one year is exactly the same as another, but there is a very clear similarity. I have drawn these (in purple) onto a chart of Comex gold futures so you can see how it has related this year so far to the actual price swings. Pretty good i'd say.

Obviously the price of Silver tends to follow Gold pretty closely, so Silver has so far and will generally follow the price swings in Gold. Relevant therefore to Arian Silver.

Here is the chart: (i'll comment a bit further after this).


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[charles clore] 15/6/2015 22:38

From the Edison note on 22/4/2015

...the stage is now set for both mine and mill to ramp up to produce upwards of 2.1Moz Ag pa at an average C1 cash cost of US$9.93/oz...

That, if I am not mistaken, gives a profit before tax of US$6/oz or US$12.6 p.a. If silver was to rise modestly this year to say, $22 (which is still below the $24 industry average cost of production) then Arian's profit would double. Market cap still below £10m. Surely this has to be a no brainer.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 15/6/2015 22:03

Whilst not mega volume on the TSXV today it still resulted in a 25% price lift in Canada. One is not expecting fireworks on AIM tomorrow but it would be a pleasant change.

[bikwik] 15/6/2015 22:01

Thanks for the heads up on the note SAF, sums it all up nicely.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 15/6/2015 19:34

Edison update note:

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 15/6/2015 18:42

Canada: .49 to .61 on limited purchase volume suggests market is quite tight despite recent share prices falls

[boadicea] 15/6/2015 03:45

The problem that AGQ has to overcome is that, based on long experience, noone will believe that the theoretically possible is actually probable until it happens.

[charles clore] 14/6/2015 16:58

Do you actually bother to read those? I've had the idiot filtered for months now

[leedskier] 14/6/2015 12:23

It is s sure sign that the MM have insufficient funds to provide liquidity for Aim when they employ alcoholics to post rubbish day in day out on BB in an attempt to discourage buying.

[irnbru2] 12/6/2015 22:59

Be grateful,

The real scammers have not arrived yet.

[bikwik] 09/6/2015 13:55

This from Proactive Investors today:

Arian Silver's (LON:AGQ) latest drilling results potentially fill a "gap" in the current resource blocks at the San José project in Mexico and will benefit the eventual mine operation there, chief executive Jim Williams told Proactive.

Earlier, the group revealed that high grade silver had been found in phase-5 drilling at the project, which will mean the firm can update its resource estimate later this summer.

The results confirmed that the silver, lead and zinc mineralisation on the vein extends beneath the township of Guanajuatillo over 1km.

Williams said the new mineralisation filled "a much needed gap" between the Soledad resource blocks in the east and the ones at Guanajuatillo in the west.

"I knew all along it (this area) was mineralised but I didn't realise until we had the results the extent of the mineralisation," said Williams.

The firm is currently going through commissioning and ramping up of its plant at San José.

It has a maximum capacity of 1,500 tonnes per day (tpd) and the firm is currently running through around 750tpd of ore.

Williams said the definition of more mining blocks would aid the eventual mine operation, when it reaches full tilt.

"Ultimately when we are producing at full rate on the mine we will want to have four separate sections of the mine all working concurrently. These intercepts confirm what I thought I knew," he said.

Currently, the mine life is put at 10 years but there is plenty of scope to increase that.

Earlier this year City broker Northland said it reckoned production would ramp up first to 1,199tpd with a further expansion planned to take it to 1,500tpd in the first half next year.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 09/6/2015 10:24

Well one is no Geologist but would not be at all surprised if they've not given us another 5m oz of Silver in those intercepts. That is more than respectable and adds a couple of years to mine life at proposed extraction rates.

What is most significant is that we are still open at both ends, so we could go on for considerably longer than Plan A suggests. Things are just getting better and better here.

Hopefully our Termite rig currently being used on mine development work may give us some extra excitement.

[bikwik] 09/6/2015 10:16

Chart of Comex Silver:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 09/6/2015 10:12

It's good to see small quantities of Gold in the mineralisation. Whilst it may not yet be economic at current prices, it's still there.

[charles clore] 09/6/2015 10:00

C - I'd be happy with 40p... or even a quid!

[bikwik] 09/6/2015 09:59

I quite like the fact that the price hasn't zoomed up too fast, up 5% or so, particularly if it closes the day around this level. This should mean we get a more sustainable rise, unlike previous spike ups and spike downs.

Re...40p by end of the year. Hmmm, I would be very very disappointed if that turned out to be the case. I think not personally. If you put a 1 in front of the 40, then that would I feel be more likely. This has been building a base for a year and a half, so when the break comes, possibly in coming weeks, then the rise will be significant. If not then all my technical analysis will have been in vain!

[au24] 09/6/2015 09:59

Long and strong here but still a few quid down. Keep up the good work Arian.

[seagreen] 09/6/2015 09:43

Patience...if its 40p at the end of the year that is a cracking return in this world of low yields..£1 and its fandabydozy...