Arian Silver Share Discussion Threads

[bikwik] 23/7/2015 00:17

First thing to note is how Silver has outperformed Gold since Gold's dump in Shanghai on Monday. This probably has a bearing on why Arian Silver has been relatively strong, stronger in fact than Silver itself. Ok not by much perhaps but nevertheless still stronger.

Gold shares generally have been very weak in comparison, not surprising given that Gold itself has drifted back to test Mondays low near $1080. This is very close to $1086.3 which is a 50% retracement of the entire $252 to $1920.6 decade plus long bull market. So, a major support level and possible upside reversal point. Obviously it could break down again and I and others could not rule that out, though I think you have to be aware of the $1086 region.

Another point is that Silver has begun to noticeably outperform Gold when the Silver/Gold ratio is at a very high level of 74. Gold as I write is at $1095 and Silver at $14.80. The current ratio level is at a level, or very close to it, where major turns in the ratio in Silvers favour have begun. Therefore this is a warning sign that not only may we be close to a recovery in Precious metals, led by silver, but that Silver equities will outperform their Gold counterparts. The most interesting of these, certainly in London, being Arian Silver, which as we all know, is now producing Silver. It has already delivered the first Silver concentrate to MRI. Hochschild appears to be next followed by Fresnillo.

Another interesting point is that given Arian's extremely undervalued rating it would be a prize catch for another Silver and or Gold producer looking to pick up exceedingly cheap Silver assets in the ground. I sincerely hope that doesn't happen. Whilst it would be nice to see a doubling in the share price on a bid (would still be cheap) I would rather they stay independent so that those who have Arian shares can profit from at least a tenfold rise and probably a lot more than that in the not too distant future.

I don't think a bid would come from Hochschild or Fresnillo, as it would be too small for them but there are some Canadian Silver Miners where it could be a prospect, particularly as Arian has now done all the hard work and got the company into production. Anyway as I said I would not want to see that. Hopefully Sprott with 13% would not like to see it either.

[bikwik] 22/7/2015 23:43

Arian Silver, Silver and Gold in closer detail over the last week:


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[irnbru2] 22/7/2015 18:39

CC,

JPM are loading up with phys.

Not selling. They may be selling paper gold.

[irnbru2] 22/7/2015 18:35

CC,

You are wrong.

When the trend in PMs reverses, there is no reason to assume that the bounce/rally/rise will be big.

It is more likely to be a small steady rise.

You have made a mistake, by buying now, when you could have bought lower.

When it starts to rise, and after the trend is confirmed, is the time to buy.

[charles clore] 22/7/2015 15:54

BIKWIK - thanks for your viewpoint. I think there is downward pressure on precious metals generally. However, I have recently topped up my Arian holding and because it is so undervalued at present I can see it being one of the first 'big movers' when the next bull phase begins. When that will be depends on whether the big shorters think they have caned the price enough - and that could coincide with this year's seasonal buying from India and the Far East. I hear that some of the world's large traditional banks (not JPM of course) are selling off the remainder of their silver and could be almost finished. That may indeed convince the shorters to hang on until they are done. And then - whoosh!

[bikwik] 22/7/2015 15:35

One last thing Arian's 22.75p low on Friday was within the late 2013/early 2014 base of 21.75-25.00p that spawned the rapid rise to 56p in Feb 2014. I'm not saying it will do the same. However, we are now back in a decent area of important historical support from where a decent uptrend can start to develop.

[bikwik] 22/7/2015 15:29

I also notice that there was a reasonably large buyer of AGQ at 8.51am today of 92747 shares at 27p. And despite some early small fry sellers this morning, the bid price was marked up from 23p to 25p.

[bikwik] 22/7/2015 15:23

Since the reaction lows on the 8th July for Hochschild, Fresnillo and Arian, only Arian is now higher than the closing levels of that day (exactly two weeks ago). AS you can see Arian has still underperformed Hochschild and Fresnillo since January.

Also, note that the price of Arian Silver did not budge this Monday when Gold, and to a lesser extent Silver, plunged in early Asian trading when US$2.7bn worth of gold was dumped on the market. It had already fallen on the Friday to an intraday low of 22.75p before bouncing sharply on persistent buying into and during that afternoon.

Also, note that Silver fell much less on Monday than Gold. Silver had already fallen much more steeply than Gold on the 7th July, so Silver now appears to be leading Gold. It looks like there is now a reluctance for Silver to fall much more, if any, though I could of course be wrong.

[bikwik] 22/7/2015 15:09

Ok, this is the next chart:


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[juju44] 22/7/2015 14:40

And silver will not turn until the New York mafia decide to turn it

[irnbru2] 22/7/2015 13:27

The will not turn till the price of silver turns.

[bikwik] 22/7/2015 13:13

Over the last year you can see that Arian has outperformed Silver heavyweights Fresnillo and Hochschild.

Granted, not on the upside, but by not falling as much. However, as some of the eagle eyed amongst you will have observed, Arian has fallen more recently, particularly since January and March. Nevertheless, my next chart will show that maybe, just maybe the tide is turning.

[bikwik] 22/7/2015 13:05

Arian Silver in perspective. You may find this interesting.


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[charles clore] 22/7/2015 10:36

WS - did you get a reply from Jim?

[irnbru2] 21/7/2015 02:54

What is wrong with you.

[irnbru2] 21/7/2015 02:53

Silver is tanking.

And, in case have not noticed, AGQ, do not even produce silver.

[wstirrup] 21/7/2015 00:43

Oh yes, one more thing...

I took the trouble to write to Jim Williams (CEO) over the weekend, and forwarded the Ted Butler piece and letter to let him know, so who knows, we might see some movement there too?


W.

[lilith83] 18/7/2015 17:47

For those interested in mining companies check this Interview with Charles Gibson: Head of Mining at Edison Research

[irnbru2] 18/7/2015 17:25

The handle is too high.

[nash81] 18/7/2015 15:53

haha, funny reading your post Charles Clore, like two personalities. in JLP you said platinum price is going down (which is true) and so future profits cannot be taken into account and not worth holding shares company in this sector bla bla bla (though you forgot that JLP tailing cost is only $500, so even at low platinum price they are still making money)

YET, you are holding AGQ? silver price also at ridiculously low and not sustainable and yet you are holding it? so despite both platinum and silver price are down, you deramping JLP and yet ramping AGQ?

shame on you. i still have my small position in AGQ from a couple of years ago (though in my bottom drawer still) but noticing your deramping JLP doesnt make any good, does it? if you are not interested in JLP then leave them alone. hopefully nobody will come and follow you here and deramp AGQ in return.

btw, still have time to get in JLP, no need to deramp it to get in cheaper. JLP can multibag in the next few weeks/months.

Charles Clore 17 Jul'15 - 15:26 - 40583 of 40593

Yes that's right juju - the majors I believe have an AISC of around $24/oz for silver so they will be feeling it now. All part of the long term plan I believe. When majors begin to put mines into care and maintenance and supply gets squeezed the time will be right for the big shorters to start closing off and go long - then watch the pos rocket.

And whenever I start to wonder if I am doing the right thing holding silver I just remind myself - "industrial uses" and JPM holds an absolute shedload of physical. You know it just has to make sense Rodney.

p.s. - just nicked this lovely link from the silver thread (thank you sahara!)

[shar65] 18/7/2015 11:42

For those interested in mining companies check this Interview with Charles Gibson: Head of Mining at Edison Research

[kiwimonk] 18/7/2015 08:39

With silver where it is they wouldn't want to be operating a very expensive mill. Silver could go to single digits.