Arian Silver Share Discussion Threads

[observer007] 07/7/2015 13:43

Arian Silver worth 80p+ according to leading mining analyst Charlie Gibson



Must be value here at current levels.

[bikwik] 07/7/2015 10:32

Over on iii :

It looks like Arian's price is bottoming out so I couldn't resist a top-up of 25,000. I did try 50,000 but it looks like you can't buy in significant quantities.

These are long term holds and will not be sold until at least 2020. If Arian is paying dividends by then it will become an even longer term hold.

Nobody else appears to be buying or selling so it looked like a good time to add to my holding. I may pick up another 25,000 if the market stays this flat in the coming weeks.

Why now?

1) Everybody still hates gold and silver.
2) My spidy sense suggests something is about to break in the silver market. Everything about its setup seems wrong. I don't think anything will happen while Greece and China are in turmoil but come September it just might be game on.
3) Arian's results are due in the second or third week of August. These will be the first set of production results since the shutdown a few years ago. I don't think the market has worked out that Arian is back in production.
4) Silver is still flat but we now sell zinc as well. While zinc cash flows address the debt all we need is revenue from silver to keep the operation humming. $15.50 won't make us rich but it will keep the company in business.
5) Summer doldrums now impacting prices.
6) Upside potential is far greater than the downside risk at these prices. The lowest closing mid-price for Arian was 21.88p and that was when Arian looked like it might go to the wall for lack of financing. The circumstances for today's low are entirely different.
7) Arian is priced for insolvency. Even on a fire sale basis its net assets should yield greater than the current market cap.

Nobody currently believes this at the moment but it looks like the bargain of the century.

Ask me in five years.

ddd

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 07/7/2015 10:29

Heavy buying (relatively speaking), similar to yesterday this morning.

We may well see a number of traders entering now and exiting after a 10-20% gain which will come shortly.

[observer007] 07/7/2015 07:44

This is looking very oversold, the RSI has only once been below 20 in the last 3 years, there has been a significant bounce from here historically.

Might be worth a trading punt with a move back towards 30p possible


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[irnbru2] 07/7/2015 03:51

The silver is there, just W is a drug dealer, or a man that lives with fear.

[bikwik] 06/7/2015 18:32

AGQ has already produced silver/lead concentrate from the refurbished mill as they said in their overview of the first quarter of 2015:

Summary of quarterly results

The Company's focus during the quarter was the completion of refurbishment and
installation of the Plant, and the commencement of its commissioning. During
the quarter, two significant milestones were achieved, being the mechanical
completion of the Plant and the production of first silver-lead concentrate.


They also said that:

The production and revenue received from first concentrate will be recognised
in the Company's second quarter results.

Finally, Jim Williams, commented.... "Looking ahead, I expect to report on exploration results and slightly longer-term, on the ramp-up of production throughout the rest of the year and into 2016. I especially look forward to Arian Silver being recognised by investors as a producing mining company in due course."

Mid 2016 should see full production of 1500 tonnes of ore per day (2 million ozs of silver per year). By end of this year they are expecting to be producing 750 to 1000 tonnes per day.

[bikwik] 06/7/2015 18:04

yes I noticed SHG was looking very interesting at this level. Recent drop after Director buying at the end of April seems a typical market over reaction not helped of course by the decline in the POG.

[fangorn2] 06/7/2015 17:57

BIKWIK,

"Excuse me, my instinct tells me that clients don't want their long silver positions hedged, or sold short. Why would a client with a long silver position want the bank to create an offsetting short position for the client? If you buy stock or shares in a company, do you want your brokerage firm to short the company you just bought to "protect" you from upside gains? This explanation makes no sense."

Makes perfect sense to me and I think your brokerage analogy is incorrect - most of the time your stockbroker is sourcing your "Buy" from someone else "Selling", and taking a cut.

ie Effectively matching buyers to sellers. They, the institution, are not selling directly to you.

In the case of JPMorgan trading Silver contracts etc, they have a "Direct" position with their client and so go into the market to offset that with the corresponding required trade.

So a Client that is Short Short Silver with JPM,(ie JPMorgan are Long) will require an offsetting short position in the derivatives market by JPM. Vice versa where JPM's client is LONG (ie JPM are Short to that client) it will require the bank buying silver contracts to ensure their position is flat/close to flat and that they're not overly exposed.

Well that's my understanding of what Blythe M means by saying JPM are not massively exposed and their trades are offsetting client positions.

[fangorn2] 06/7/2015 17:55

"Excuse me, my instinct tells me that clients don't want their long silver positions hedged, or sold short. Why would a client with a long silver position want the bank to create an offsetting short position for the client? If you buy stock or shares in a company, do you want your brokerage firm to short the company you just bought to "protect" you from upside gains? This explanation makes no sense."

Makes perfect sense to me and your brokerage analogy is incorrect - most of the time your stockbroker is sourcing your "Buy" from someone else "Selling", and taking cut. ie Effectively matching buyers to sellers. They, the institution, are not selling directly to you.

In the case of JPMorgan trading Silver contracts etc, they have a "Direct" position with their client and so go into the market to offset that with the corresponding required trade.

So a Client that is Short Short Silver with JPM,(ie JPMorgan are Long) will require an offsetting short position in the derivatives market by JPM. Vice versa where JPM's client is LONG (ie JPM are Short to that client) it will require the relevant offsetting trade.

[inscrutable ted] 06/7/2015 17:37

also shg trading rock bottom with a $20m standby facility

[bikwik] 06/7/2015 17:20

Also I took an objective look at some gold stocks based on cycles.....this is what I found if anyone is interested.

AUE...possible 9 week cycle low
CNR...started to run up (though pullback today) 1 week after 13-14 week cycle low
EMED..14 week cycle low last week with bullish weekly candlestick
HOC...possible 16 week cycle low.
KEFI..possible 14-15 week cycle low (may have found a floor at 0.80p...hard to believe I know...but stranger things have happened!).
KGI...28 week cycle low.
MARL..possible 24 week cycle low near 2.00p recently.
MWA...17 week cycle low due now. Bit of a punt I suppose, but if they get a NOMAD new (nominated adviser) before 25th July that will be the catalyst.
ORM...16 week cycle low due now.
SGZ...26 week cycle low last week.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 06/7/2015 16:58

Some strong buying of Arian today and almost no selling

[irnbru2] 06/7/2015 16:47

Are we producing any Ag yet.

[inscrutable ted] 06/7/2015 16:45

yes, taking a 6 month + view and those miners who are already funded

[bikwik] 06/7/2015 16:42

Notice also that we have tested but held key support from this March's and last November's key lows around $15.40-$15.50. Also at least four bullish daily candlesticks in the last seven trading days. Most commentators seem bearish now, so looks about right to go long silver and gold stocks.

[bikwik] 06/7/2015 16:36

Al, I agree with you. Particularly Silver. Here is the chart of Comex Silver futures:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[juju44] 30/6/2015 17:32

Been hearing this stuff for years but no one can do anything about it . We are just pawns

[bikwik] 30/6/2015 17:28

All interesting stuff I feel and pertinent to those interested in Silver. I would though be very surprised to see silver at $500 per oz.....wishful thinking I feel. Maybe it could get to $100 but that's further down the road.