Arian Silver Share Discussion Threads

[bikwik] 30/6/2015 17:18

Have a listen to Blythe Masters, the head of global commodities at JP Morgan in an interview with CNBC in April 2012.




Personally I don't believe her. The bit between 3.30 mins and 4.28 mins is key.

If any of you believe her then have a good long hard think about Lance Armstrong who lied for years about not taking drugs when he "won" the Tour De France a record breaking 7 times. He was eventually exposed and had to admit it.

[charles clore] 30/6/2015 11:44

I cant really understand why this is still below £10m market cap. I am considering selling up all my zinc stocks and buying more AGQ now.

[bikwik] 30/6/2015 11:22

It seems to me that Silver prices in particular are being held down against their will in an attempt by J P Morgan and others to profit from being short, but ultimately to make considerably more money by building up massive long positions when they decide to take the shackles off. My humble view is that we will see this begin this year, potentially coinciding with the start of the decline in US and most global equity markets. When will that be....hmmm don't know exactly, but between September and November is a fair bet.

Meantime, nothing wrong with Arian Silver. Just think of the gearing when Silver begins to rise.

[bikwik] 30/6/2015 11:07

This is his latest article which talks a great deal about J P Morgan's involvement.


The Ultimate Confirmation

Theodore Butler

Butler Research

Published : June 22nd, 2015

1714 words - Reading time : 4 - 6 minutes



I’ve embraced one central theme for the past 30 years – that the price of silver has been manipulated lower on the COMEX. For a good part of those three decades I’ve exerted an intense effort in analyzing the actual supply/demand fundamentals of silver, including production/consumption trends and the resultant annual balance between the two, inventories, investment demand, etc. Those fundamentals indicate that the price of silver must increase dramatically in the future, making the manipulation both the cause and explanation for the continued low price.

While I still follow the actual fundamentals of the metal closely; increasingly, I write less about their influence on the price. Why shouldn’t I? After all, I can’t remember an occasion over the past few years where the actual fundamentals had any effect on price; silver (and gold) prices are set on the COMEX when speculators adjust futures positions. Yes, the fundamentals will dictate the future price of silver, but they have zero influence on short to intermediate term pricing. That’s why I focus so closely on COMEX positioning.

When I step back, it is truly astounding how the acceptance that silver and gold prices are manipulated by COMEX trading has grown from the levels of five or ten years ago. Go back twenty or thirty years and you could count the number of observers who believed that silver or gold was manipulated in price on one hand. Despite the growing acceptance, not everyone believes silver is manipulated in price yet, but it occurs to me that we are moving towards total acceptance as new facts are uncovered.

The most compelling facts proving that silver is manipulated in price include the data showing the COMEX has become an exclusive speculative venue where managed money speculators vie against mostly bank speculators called commercials and the fact that COMEX silver has the largest concentrated short position of any commodity. Together, these two facts prove beyond question that silver is manipulated in price. Now a new fact has emerged that ties those two facts together and illustrates and proves the manipulation like never before.

I recently observed that JPMorgan and other members of the 4 largest short sellers on the COMEX had never taken a loss on any newly added short position in COMEX silver futures over the past seven years. Let me clarify that statement; JPMorgan and other commercial traders in the big 4 have never bought back a silver short sale at a higher price than the price they first sold short at (for a loss) and only and always have bought back silver short sales at lower prices than originally sold (for profits). In other words, the four big shorts in COMEX silver have a perfect trading record – all profits, no losses. (Of course, if a managed money trader enters into the ranks of the big 4, that trader will likely incur losses – I am only speaking of the biggest commercial traders).

In baseball terms, this is the equivalent of a Major League pitcher throwing nothing but perfect games for a full season or a batter hitting 1.000 for a whole year. Or in other words, a statistical impossibility. Think I’m overstating the case? Well, just imagine anyone entering into inherently dangerous trades (shorting the most undervalued asset of all) several times a year, year after year, and always booking profits and never a single loss. Do you think you or anyone else could do that? Yet JPMorgan and the other three largest commercial traders have done nothing but that in COMEX silver.

The proof of this resides in the data from the CFTC in the concentration section of the COT report. Every time the big 4 have increased their concentrated short position in COMEX silver, which only occurs on rising prices, they have never bought back those short sales on higher prices than originally sold, only at lower prices.

The most amazing aspect to this is that I have been studying this data all along and didn’t really see it. I have commented in the past on many occasions how the big 4 never buy back silver short positions to the upside, only to the downside. In fact, that’s a key core premise of my COT analysis in that whenever the concentrated short position has increased in size, that’s negative for prospective prices and when the position has contracted, that’s usually a good signal for higher silver prices to come. I guess that means even in understanding how the silver market functions, I overlooked putting a glaring feature into proper perspective – JPMorgan and the big 4 as a whole achieved the statistically impossible; never taking a loss.

My assertion is easy enough to verify by comparing changes in the concentrated short position and price movement and it is downright shameful that I have to be the one pointing this out to the CFTC and for the agency to not properly analyze its own data. But, what’s new about that? The important point is that JPMorgan and the other big 4 never taking a loss is the ultimate proof of the COMEX silver manipulation. That’s because no one could achieve a perfect short term trading record in a free market; that would only be possible if the market was rigged.

In fact, JPMorgan’s perfect short term trading records in COMEX silver was achieved because it had no choice in never buying back short silver positions at a loss. Had it ever bought back short positions to the upside, the price of silver would have exploded and confirmed to the world that silver was manipulated in price. The only reason silver has yet to truly explode in price is because JPMorgan never covered short positions to the upside. I confess to being repetitive in declaring nothing matters more to the price of silver than whether JPMorgan adds to its short position on any and every silver price rally.

Another lie that has been exposed with the revelation that JPMorgan or the other big 4 shorts have never taken a loss in COMEX silver dealings is that any of these big traders were ever legitimately hedging. Hedging involves an offsetting position opposite of and equal to the COMEX short position. In every hedge there must be a long and short leg in place and what the hedger loses on one leg, he makes up on the other, regardless of whether prices rise or fall. Sometimes the long leg shows profits and the short leg shows losses, other times not. In other words, were the big 4’s COMEX short position ever part of a legitimate hedge transaction, it would be impossible, at least on some number of occasions, for there not to be losses on the COMEX short position and gains on the hedged portion of the trade.

Because every COMEX short position resulted in gains, it’s clear there were never any offsetting legitimate hedges as it would be doubly impossible for there to never be losses on the COMEX side of the hedge. So much for all the balderdash that the commercials are only hedging; JPMorgan and the others live to speculate and manipulate. Never taking a loss automatically means a market is manipulated and no legitimate hedging takes place; there are no other possible conclusions.

This business of JPMorgan and the other big 4 commercial traders fully explains how and why silver has been manipulated for all these years – the big shorts sell as many new shorts as possible to eventually cause prices to cease rising and whenever the technical funds are finished buying as many COMEX silver contracts and then begin to sell, the big shorts, led by JPMorgan then grease the skids for lower prices and buy back the short contracts they sold short to the upside. It’s the perfect market scam.

What makes JPMorgan the biggest market crook of all (and what enables me to get away with stating that openly) is not just the raking in of the hundreds of millions of dollars and more that JPMorgan achieved by never taking a loss; but because this crooked bank used the continuously depressed price of silver to acquire the world’s largest position of actual silver, more than 350 million oz at last count.

But due to the growing recognition that JPMorgan has almost single-handedly manipulated the price of silver over the past seven years and has picked up a massive amount of underpriced actual silver in the process, the equation going forward has changed. While it’s true that JPMorgan has picked up another $30 million in illicit profits on the COMEX on the short side over the past month, more will come to be aware of just what dirty tricks the bank employed in achieving those profits. For JPMorgan to earn profits with no controversy or criticism is one thing; to be openly accused of manipulation is an entirely different matter.

More importantly, the financial equation has changed for JPMorgan. Making $30 million on a one dollar profit on 6000 closed out COMEX short contracts within weeks is one thing; but making $350 million for each and every dollar that silver advances will eventually prove too attractive for JPMorgan to put off indefinitely. Let me empathize that - $350 million is what JPMorgan will make when silver starts to advance on every dollar advance. A ten dollar move will equal $3.5 billion for the bank; a one hundred dollar move comes to $35 billion. The math is pretty simple and strongly suggestive of sharply higher silver prices, given how much JPMorgan stands to make.

While many feel that JPMorgan will continue to manipulate and cap the price of silver forever, the actual amount of money that the bank stands to make on sharply higher silver prices dictates otherwise. Of course, the bank is likely to depress the price of silver for as long as it can accumulate more actual silver and do so without too much outside notice of what these crooked market operators are really up to. The moment one or both of those conditions change, there is no reason for silver not to take off to the upside.

Ted Butler

June 22, 2015

[bikwik] 30/6/2015 11:01

I am now out of hospital but still a long way to go before fully recovered.

On the subject of manipulation I post two articles by Theodore Butler. He seems to have done his homework. I am sorry they are long but they are indeed well worth reading to the end.

[irnbru2] 29/6/2015 11:29

I amm correct.

I told you sell.

[irnbru2] 29/6/2015 11:28

Ag is low because no one wants it.

There is no manipulation.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 29/6/2015 11:01

Agreed CC, my comment 'this can't go on forever' was rather hopeful and one agrees entirely with your thoughts. Ultimately when supply is damaged so badly then the price MUST increase and the criminal shorts will be forced to close else there will be no supply. The risk/reward is my view on whether AGQ can weather this storm, my research suggests they can and will thus benefit from a dramatic rise when the PoS turns.

[charles clore] 29/6/2015 10:40

SAF - I believe there is a limit regarding the number of shares a listed company can be short. This is fair and understandable. But the same kind of restraint doesn't appear to be the case with paper commodities; neither does the law of supply and demand apply. So in theory the shorting could go on and on forever, in greater increasing volume - especially when the main shorter is also one of the bods that officially fixes the price of physical every single day. These criminals need bringing to justice.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 29/6/2015 10:32

Thomas11, this share is a play on the PoS, if it remains weak we will remain weak, if it strengthens then we will fly. That is the risk/reward play. One takes a view that Silver cannot remain shorted by 1bn oz (1.25 * annual production) forever, when the powers that be change their strategy the price of AGQ will rocket. Market cap at sub £9m at the moment doesn't have an awful lot of downside but the upside is potentially staggering. Cup half full, or half empty - you takes your chance and see what happens.

[irnbru2] 28/6/2015 18:55

Thomas,

Also wait for some confirmation that the new plant is working we are producing Ag.

[thomas11] 28/6/2015 17:59

Share PRice seems to be following PoS, I believe the all in costs are $14 with operational costs $10, let's hope PoS does not fall too much further or this could be a car crash,

I notice people quote Edison' Analyst view of 86p valuation, does anyone know if they are paid by Arian ??

I suspect they are in which case.......

I'm watching until picture is clearer on PoS then hope to pile in as this has excellent leverage to PoS

[edjge2] 26/6/2015 22:02

Update due from woodwork in next few weeks?

[charles clore] 24/6/2015 23:37

An excellent opportunity to top up at this seemingly ridiculous price. Nothing wrong with the company (that we know of) and everything to play for.

[edjge2] 24/6/2015 18:50

26 an a bit even better. Odd that silver slightly up. Next stop 23 from jan 2013?
Hope not but thought would go up from base it has made recently.

[wstirrup] 23/6/2015 23:57

Not to be a pedant - OK... I will...

An INVERSE Head and Shoulders, is not the same as a Head and Shoulders.

The former is positive, the latter is most definitely NOT.

When using charting techniques, it is VERY IMPORTANT TO BE PRECISE.

Rant over.

And another opportunity to top up at 28p? C'mon....


W.

[irnbru2] 23/6/2015 10:35

soulsauce   22 Jun'15 - 18:05 - 40498 of 40499    1   0

For now!!
-------

Yep, only a matter of time till they default.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 22/6/2015 16:16

Greece rescued:



This the reason for the CAC and DAX melt up.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 22/6/2015 14:28

Greece - still no deal:

[irnbru2] 21/6/2015 20:36

Lol...I love a good ramp.

[observer007] 21/6/2015 20:33

Arian worth 86p at least..........