Arian Silver Share Discussion Threads

[tadtech] 12/5/2015 09:55

For info

AGQ presenting in London next Thursday

[charles clore] 12/5/2015 03:39

Very wise WS

[wstirrup] 12/5/2015 00:42

By way of example, I increased my holding 25 fold... ;¬)


W.

[wstirrup] 12/5/2015 00:38

BIK...

My mental model suggests a MC of circa $330m... (circa £200m)

That would give us an share price of circa $10/£7.00

Speculative I know, but with so few shares in issue, since consolidation, eminently doable.

W.

[magnus9] 11/5/2015 23:56

NoBrain2

Think of sarcasm and read my post again, you brainless tw@t.

[bikwik] 11/5/2015 22:46

More interesting stuff from the same poster on another b/b (who posted the above by the way):

I'm looking for the catalyst that will start these shares moving upwards again.

We can't be far off some early operational/production results and phase V results can't be too far away either. The announcement on concentrate production starting was on March 30th; I wonder if some early operational stats are going to be released.

Meanwhile the POS continues to hang over the whole sector.

At $16.40 and full production I value Arian at about 107p. The model doesn't work at $16.40 for 2015 production which I've plugged-in for 800k oz, which means of course that the market is valuing Arian at its asset value rather than any NPV type basis. I suppose this is to be expected until tangible evidence of cash flows are announced.

On the first half of FSN's weekly review I heard Ned Schmidt talk about his expectation that gold would hit $2,000 in 2016 (not this year). He didn't have a lot to say about silver but we would now associate this sort of level with $50 silver.




(towards the end for anyone interested)

At $50 silver my model throws out an eye-boggling 1200p price for Arian, based on revenues heading for $90m and net income on the right side of $60m.

If only..

Still worth a humungous buy though for anyone who thinks the main market bull has run its course, and needs a counter balance.

[bikwik] 11/5/2015 22:33

Interesting post I feel:

It sounds like Maguire thinks that the net long bullion banks are getting ready to give the hot money a bit of a ride.

And silver will of course enjoy the fun.

Audio:




Andrew Maguire – China On The Brink Of Winning The Gold War Against Corrupt West As Gold And Silver Prices Set To Skyrocket

“And that is to ring the register on extremely large, wrong-footed hot-money short positions.

Silver always provides the first clue as to what these collusive traders are doing in gold. And when we see the hot-money weak hands, I’m talking about the managed money hedge funds, build a gross short position in silver that reaches record levels, we know that on the long side of each of these positions are the market-making concentrated bullion banks.

And it’s impossible for this hot money to win these short bets. That’s because these positions are aggregated among many traders, whereas the insider bullion banks, along with the Bank for International Settlements, are colluding as one unit.

These naked short sellers in silver have run out of sufficient short fuel and there is very little remaining open interest to milk out of silver. These funds have recently used profits to fund even more short positions (in silver). This makes their low-hanging short stops extremely vulnerable to a major rinse.

Expect $20 Silver And $1,300 Gold On Massive Short Covering

This (silver market) is about as coiled a spring as you can get and it should be sufficient to see a $20 print just on short covering alone. And that’s not even accounting for fresh bid interest that would come in when we see markets move higher. Both gold and silver are set up for a very large move higher.

There is also sufficient low-hanging short fuel above the market to propel gold into first resistance in the $1,300s. Where this short fuel is vulnerable right now is right at the confluence of some very low altitude moving averages, which are all in a very small range of each other. The (manipulated) price (of gold) is so far below the real fundamental price that when we breach these averages it’s going to trip off a multitude of naked short stops.


The KWN people are phrenetic in their calls for a major US market correction, and equally in heralding a violent upward move in gold and silver. Meanwhile I read and listen to a whole cabal of other mainstream technicians who think the big US indexes can run even higher, maybe even for another couple of years.

On a trend basis it looks like the latter group have the upper hand but then again a trend can't accommodate an unexpected catalyst, a 'black swan' event. My own view is that the risks of a significant correction caused by something currently unknowable are considerably greater than they were. It's not as if the markets are 'cheap' (PMs excepted).

I'll take $20 silver at the moment, which on full production suggests that Arian should be worth about 225p; 49p on 800k 2015 production.

[magnus9] 11/5/2015 14:48

Are camcorders illegal in Mexico? Be good to see the crushing circuit in operation and the tons of silver concentrate being loaded onto trucks :)

[charles clore] 11/5/2015 13:16

I would love to be there buy I am flying back from my winter in the Caribbean that day. I'd be grateful for any feedback though.

[bikwik] 11/5/2015 08:32

Will I see any of my fellow intrepid posters at Wednesday's AGM?

[bikwik] 10/5/2015 21:13

Why bother posting, we all know you are a waste of space. You can't spell of course either...."will sore" ......don't you mean "will soar". Also, you say when the POS goes up. I thought HGM or Highland Gold Mining was a gold miner...not Silver Miner (the clue is in the name!). Obviously if silver soars which it will of course and so will gold, though not by quite as much, then why don't you refer to POG.

You really are a dimbo aren't you. Too much skull splitter in the pub i'd say is affecting your brain, what little of one you have anyway. Adios Amigo.

[wstirrup] 06/5/2015 22:18

Squirrel...

I'm in the following..

AGQ.L
LGO.L
MWA.L
JLP.L
UU.L
XOMA:US
AFG.L

Diversity - Product
-------------------

Silver
Oil
Gold
Platinum
Water
Bio-Tech
Sea-Food/Frozen Food

Geography (Market/location)
---------------------------

Mexico
Trinidad & Tobago
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa
England
U.S.
China...

(In that order)

I have my eye on a few Canadian listed Co's too

IB.CN -

A Beryllium rare earth's specialist component manufacturer - used in Armaments Energy production, and Space Programmes, with a large holding in a Graphite Miner - and the other part of that is NGC.CN - Northern Graphite Corp.

HRE.CN

Stan's Energy. A Uranium and Rare Earth miner with its own Rare Earths refinery and the skills to refine them, in Kyrgystan. And they've just won an International dispute for $118 million (I think that was the sum). Still waiting for the cash/shares though.

REM/BCN (should need no introduction)

Also,

BMN - Bushveld Minerals - (based out of South Africa) mining basic minerals - Saw an interview with the senior management, and they impressed me with their ambition, and apparent rationality. More research needed for that one though.

Also, one other -

LTBR:US - Lightbridge - A Thorium specialist - that makes fuel rods for nuclear power stations, and consultancy services, and given Fukushima's recent travails, it should be able to make inroads into adapting Nuclear Power Stations.

It reduces costs, temperature, meltdown risks - to zero, and is more fuel efficient. What's not to like?

BUT, I don't have any more info, on holdings /revenue etc.


W.

[squirrel888] 06/5/2015 17:21

WS - AGQ is my biggest holding but I have added CPX, TERN & XTR to my portfolio. Speculate to accumulate & spread the risk for greater rewards. Unless something spectacular happens with zinc and my AYM then I need some good news from my other stocks. No point hiding it under the bed - need to be in for a chance to succeed. All ISA-able.

[onedayrodders] 06/5/2015 17:07

Hey chaps .. might appeal

XTR (Gold producer) possibly a 3 bagger from here fairly short term based on real profits happening now.

£750k per month, nearly debt free and paying dividends soon all for £15m market cap

See today's RNS.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 06/5/2015 17:03

Indeed WS but it is almost always more comforting to know that senior team members also own stock they have bought on the open market, not grace and favour warrants or options but shares acquired with their own hard earned money. Only TW has let the side down and one can only assume that is because of his other malinvestments.

[wstirrup] 06/5/2015 16:21

SAF. Eric Sprott who is a BILLIONAIRE, has skin in the game.

Last I heard he had something like 14% (reduced from 18%)

That's good enough for me.

And in cash terms, AGQ is my biggest holding. ;¬))

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 06/5/2015 14:47

One has finally managed to track down each of the key players at Arian and has been advised individually that ALL of them (not including the NED's who have not been asked) claim to have skin in the game. The only member who does not own shares is Chairman Tony Williams, who as we all know sold up presumably in a distress sale some weeks ago. On that basis a question mark remains over TW and his commitment to the business going forward.

Notwithstanding TW, this is quite encouraging news and whilst only the BoD need confirm via RNS we are all able to ask the key players ourselves to confirm if we so wish. Personally if I were you reading this post and held a serious interest in Arian, I'd be asking that question of them myself.

[sir andrew ffoulkes] 06/5/2015 14:34

One has finally managed to track down each of the key players at Arian and has been advised individually that ALL of them (not including the NED's who have not been asked) claim to have skin in the game. The only member who does not own shares is Chairman Tony Williams, who as we all know sold up presumably in a distress sale some weeks ago. On that basis a question mark remains over TW and his commitment to the business going forward.

Notwithstanding TW, this is quite encouraging news and whilst only the BoD need confirm via RNS we are all able to ask the key players ourselves to confirm if we so wish. Personally if I were you reading this post and held a serious interest in Arian, I'd be asking that question of them myself.