Argentex Share Discussion Threads

[gopher] 21/4/2023 16:24

For future reference this stock can be weak after ok results but todays rise indicates the tree shake is over.

[doobz] 19/4/2023 09:26

Agreed retsius, my agfx journey is over for now sold most at small profit and a couple of top ups at a loss. Lost confidence for time being and looks a little like the cans being kicked down the road for now. I'm sure it'll perform longer term

[melton john] 19/4/2023 07:23

Imho it's just the churn of profit taking and trading that all my other stocks have suffered from and it looks possibly like the bottom.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[retsius] 19/4/2023 06:45

Chart does not inspire confidence.
R.

[doctor888] 17/4/2023 11:09

Some takeaways from the Vox interview:

Revenue per corporate client up 45%

Alternative Banking option was opened before SVB collapse

Increased runway for growth: European market is 10 x UK market

Operating margins predicted to increase

[toffeeman] 16/4/2023 11:32

Or maybe Singer Have it wrong!

[big7ime] 16/4/2023 10:53

Many seem totally confused by the yr end change and getting their figures mixed. Singer have actually upgraded and have a price target now of £2.

[dr biotech] 14/4/2023 18:24

If EPS met that’s a forward PE of 10, or 8 if you discount cash on the balance sheet (I always add on debt to give a clearer picture). That’s not expensive for an expanding company.

I guess the counter is they have to expand the bottom line as well as the top.

[yump] 14/4/2023 12:16

Strikes me this is like a recruitment consultancy. If you expand one of those quickly, it takes quite a while before you let new hires fully loose onto important accounts.

[bunlop] 14/4/2023 11:51

For many months now good results of small caps have been used as a liquidity event for holders to sell down to re balance their portfolio or to provide liquidity for investors withdrawing from funds. Still expecting this share to push north over the coming weeks.

[eagle eye] 14/4/2023 11:22

I've just had confirmation from Singer's.
EPS for FY Dec 23 and FY 24 is 9.1p and 11.8p respectively.
Looks like Monday's note had figures shunted to the right which appeared like a profit warning.
I'm surprised someone else hadn't picked up this issue.
Based on the information received I sold out early bells on Monday.
I'm always first out the door when it comes to profit warnings.

[eagle eye] 14/4/2023 09:50

EB110,

'The way the share price reacted yesterday, you'd think they'd issued a profits warning,'

Well, in my book they did.
Singer's new note forecasts EPS of 9.1p for FY 24, when the existing forecast was 12p.
According to the new note, eps of 11.8p won't be achieved until FY 2025, which has pushed everything a year out.

I've contacted Singer's regarding a possible error, but have had no reply.
I've now contacted Argentex, so should hear from them shortly.

[melton john] 13/4/2023 14:40

I've never bought the nonsense that is the trade info either. There are many examples in the trades where with the spread, + or - 3.5p, the market makers are able to make buys look like sells and vice versa. 10000 shares = a hundred pounds a point in the spread for the dealers. With volume like yesterday they can make a turn on a fraction of a penny spread and still have a good day.

[dr biotech] 13/4/2023 14:06

I've never bought the strong/weak holder argument. Using yesterdays trade info there were 300k more sells than buys, and these need to find a home as they are in "weak hands" etc.

I have mixed views after the results and the presentations. It seems that the revenues are taking off which is great and much needed after several years of anaemic growth - but the expansion has cost more than I'd like. It probably means that there are quite a few new hires that are currently not "washing their own face" and a few other back room staff that are underemployed at the moment. 20 or so in Amsterdam on minimal revenues must be loss making. However when (if) they get a licence to operate this could prove to be significant.

Bad debt levels are very good and risk is well managed. If they can continue to increase revenues at the same pace over the next 12 months we should be in a much better position. I think I've said a similar thing over the last few years though.

Its not expensive though - PE closer to 12 if you factor in the cash

[melton john] 13/4/2023 12:34

For the first minute and a half the price went up yeterday until a few algo trades and a "what an ugly baby kind of post" spooked a possibly small number of weak holders into selling. The sharks tasted blood and a lot changed hands to possibly buy back later. The shares are now in stronger hands imho and should consolidate around this price. I might be wrong though, I thought I was wrong once but I was mistaken. :-)

[johndoe23] 13/4/2023 12:15

Same feeling as me, though I don't hold. Bit disappointed I missed the drop to 110p the other week, but now not so sure.

[eb110] 13/4/2023 11:54

The way the share price reacted yesterday, you'd think they'd issued a profits warning, the company is growing they announced excellent revenue numbers (Q1 revenue up 34%). Lack of liquidity playing a factor IMO. Investors chronicle seem to think its a buy too from yesterday : "The shares currently trade at 14 times forward earnings for the current calendar year, which we think constitutes reasonable value for a company providing an increasingly essential financial service. Buy.
"

[doobz] 13/4/2023 11:07

What's everyone thinking currently? This board was all very bullish at breaking 140 this week, have the results put a stop to that? I couldn't really equate whether I was happy with them or not

[gopher] 12/4/2023 23:28

I think harsh on costs as they have been aggressively hiring in the recent past and this is an industry where there is a relationship between headcount and turnover. I also gain the impression they may have underinvested in technology and are playing catch up.If you look at KPIs such as turnover/profit per employee then you are going to much prefer Alpha, it looks a larger better run company. However as I said there is a price to be paid for Alpha so Argentex is the value option and there seems room for both to grow: The dividend increase may be best guide to underlying growth here at 12.5% as year end change confuses figures and agree with Taurus view on this issue.

[taursus] 12/4/2023 18:18

These guys are poor communicators. The change of year end for no valid reason has not only confused the numbers but has now come to bite them.

The performance in Q1 of the current year is not good when viewed sequentially; it is down nearly 7% on the last quarter of calendar 2022. When March was the year end, they said that Q1 of the calendar year (or Q4 or their old financial year) was the busiest. So why the sequential drop despite all the guff about new clients, new products,and overseas expansion?

The messaging is not consistent. The CEO told Paul Hill late last year that the operating margin would return to mid to late 30s% from 2024; today the CFO said in the medium term the margin should return to late 20s%/early 30s%. Where is the consistency there?

Each presentation brings news of more costs being added and the prospect of limited operating leverage. The Netherlands office now has 22 employees and turned over £2m in 2022; in the year to March 2016 Argentex turned over £7m with 19 employees and £10.6m a year later with 28 employees. Quite a difference.

[teamrilex] 12/4/2023 17:15

Presentation was very positive, as was Paul’s interview. Harshly treated by the market today imo.

[dr biotech] 12/4/2023 16:31

I've just listened to the Investor meet webcast - these are always a bit dry but some good info - they will continue to invest (ie costs aren't going to drop) but my interpretation was that the guidance could be beaten if things go well. The timing of the licenses is a little bit of an unknown.

[toffeeman] 12/4/2023 16:20

>> Paul

The market disagrees!!

[brummy_git] 12/4/2023 16:19

In this fascinating interview, CEO Harry Adams, CFO Jo Stent and COO David Christie take me through Argentex’s impressive 2022 results, strong start to 2023 & longer term growth plans.

[gopher] 12/4/2023 14:14

I don't think quarterly reporting does a company of this size any favours which is what we have in practice because of the year end change.It has been disappointing stock but this in reflected in PE ratio compared with Alpha international which I think may be heading off AIM to the main market, I remain optimistic there is some upside here if they keep their act on the road.