Arcontech Share Discussion Threads

[pob69] 02/10/2020 08:15

Positive tweet from Leon Boros who owns 3%+ of the company

[jamessmith23] 02/10/2020 08:03

Happy with today's announcement, the c25% falls from highs was a little concerning and wasn't sure if there was bad news lurking, but appears to have just been poor momentum in the short term. Picked up some more today as 150 - 160 seems to offer a solid support as well.

[jonut] 30/9/2020 12:30

All AGM motions passed yesterday so dividend 2.5p will be paid 9/10/20.

Share buy back also endorsed. The septics prefer that method of returning cash to shareholders for tax reasons. Waste of money IMHO but heyho.

Bought a few y'day but may have further to fall yet.

[jamessmith23] 16/9/2020 09:14

Yes it appears to bounce off the 150-155 range, looking at the last year or so, may be tempted to add at those ranges, but at the same time I think I'm more likely to see if there is any form of accelerator because if there is another year of 4% growth or less, I can see this share price taking a tumble. It doesn't seem to re-rate instantly on good news and as it serves a few, large level clients, it only takes one or two to cause a large profit shift and right now that could be either way.

[tudes100] 16/9/2020 02:00

Strong support @160p, would be looking to add again if we see these levels

[jamessmith23] 15/9/2020 16:40

Seen a fairly large fall recently, were people expecting more from the results in terms of growth? Even if there is the gearing effect, we need fairly decent growth to see a material impact on profit and we just haven't seen it, or seen that it is likely coming in the near term.

[redartbmud] 02/9/2020 21:05

jonut

Once I get to negligible value, it derisks the odd trade.
When I think it is well mispriced to the downside, I pick up a few, then sell enough to recover the stake. The 'turn' was 34p and well worth it. I can afford to hold them for a while if necessary. The PE isn't desperate but the spread can be tiresome, as it eats into the profit.

I would rather hold shares with a decent cash pile than those with large borrowings, during this extended period of disruption. I have't thought of a takeover, but the cash in bank might tempt somebody. Should they find something that fits in, they have the firepower to follow through.


red

[jonut] 02/9/2020 20:27

Just to echo your point Red, the main ingredient in my recent buys has been shares that have had negligible impact from the pandemic. Seats/terminals have increased almost 50% this year. Good progress considering the background although not in the same league as new customers. If/when they do seal a new deal, well...

Acquisitions were mentioned today for the first time, to my knowledge. They do need to do something with that growing cash pile.

Will add on further weakness to my full weight holding, like yours in for free.

[redartbmud] 02/9/2020 19:30

Gawdluvaduck.
Just corrected typos in earlier post. Must have been half asleep when I wrote it.

Agreed, it would be nice to see the addition of a new client, but the period since early March has been fraught. FD's are reigning in capex budgets everywhere and business has been severely disrupted. Uncertainty remains on the horizon in the short/medium term.
If they offer a cost effective solution that enhances performance they may have a chance somewhere along the line.

Just MHO.

[isa2020] 02/9/2020 15:56

Final div of 2.5p

[jamessmith23] 02/9/2020 08:11

Yes agree, and wouldn't mind seeing the fixed costs increase if it encouraged further growth which is what it sounds like they were attempting with the additional sales guys.It is a sticky business model which is a positive, and so even 1 sizable win per year is enough to make a huge difference, you just never know when it's going to be, could be working on several for a year or so before it actually comes through and that can make the growth look a little disjointed when in reality it's just a long process from start to finish.

[multibagger] 02/9/2020 08:08

Thanks redartbmud !

Small share price drop so far....

[redartbmud] 02/9/2020 07:59

mb

Very succint review. Spot on the money.

[multibagger] 02/9/2020 07:51

It is the nature of the ARC business - massive financial institutions cannot take financial and security risks with adopting and integrating new software into their Core IT.

So rollouts are incremental and conversion of sales take a huge effort and time and once they do - they remain incredibly sticky as the FIs don't want to get rid of what works beautifully once we get integrated.

Also I get the impression that our development team are incredibly responsive to requested software adaptations etc - which is an USP as far as I am concerned.

I have no idea what the market was expecting, so it would be interesting to see the trading today. ARC have always been ultraconservative in managing expectations and in their RNS/ communications - so it could be some hot money may move out in the short term ?

Good luck all :)

[redartbmud] 02/9/2020 07:51

These are difficult times. Many existing customers, and cetainly potential new customers would be more likely to stay as they are until times improve.
Faced with significant operating disruption, major change would be the last thing on your mind.

[jamessmith23] 02/9/2020 07:18

To be honest I found the results a little dissapointing. It's a solid result and I don't expect a fall in the share price but there needs to be growth to warrant the current PE and the 4% revenue doesn't quite cut it. I appreciate it is a leveraged business model and so anything above the 2m fixed costs effectively moves down to the bottom line, but when you have concentrated risk in a small number of large clients, I want to see growth and diversification away from that risk, if they lose 1 large client they could lose a massive chunk of profits as the leverage works both ways.Will probably continue to hold but don't think I'll be adding, it's probably priced correctly at the moment if you're willing to hold on very long term and they can pick up the growth again soon.

[redartbmud] 27/8/2020 07:54

Nowt reported today.
Not many reporting days left in August.
Tension mounts.

[mikeh30] 26/8/2020 12:14

Mms are fishing here. Was NT most of yesterday and all today. Those 200p trades were sells this morning.

[multibagger] 26/8/2020 11:56

Given we all are speculating, I'm predicting that full year results RNS will be out tomorrow morning !

Thursday, 27 Aug 2020, 'cos I think Matthew likes Thursdays ;)

Good luck all :)

[redartbmud] 26/8/2020 07:50

watch

They didn't give a date in the last update, and they do not list future events on the website. I couldn't find one.
Not long to wait, in any event.

[watchlist1] 26/8/2020 06:45

I seem to have 28th as date for update but not sure where I read that

[redartbmud] 25/8/2020 17:06

All I can find is the comment about "late August". They do not seem to publish a calendar of events.

[janeann] 25/8/2020 16:56

Friday 23 rd last year jonut and Thursday 23rd year before; certainly imminent!!

[jonut] 25/8/2020 10:32

Trading update from 15July, results expected to be inline with forecasts, cash at year end ~25% up at 5m. Year end results expected end August, so anyday now. Strap in!

[jamessmith23] 18/8/2020 12:11

Expectations for the upcoming results? Based on the recurring revenue being fairly flat I'm not expecting fireworks, but at the same time there was an uplift of 7.5% at the interims, does that mean that all came from non recurring or that the recurring proportion was first half weighted and so we can expect slightly less in H2?