Arcontech Share Discussion Threads

[red army] 15/9/2019 19:30

Personally I think the BREXIT issue is over rated.Its a bit like 1999/2000.

[janeann] 15/9/2019 18:43

cooltools - You said.... ' in the face of Brexit - I was seriously worried a loss of any one of their customers, e.g. by moving to Europe, would hammer the shareprice. Feeling more confident now.'

Can I ask why you feel more confident now; I feel no more confident on this issue than I did a couple of years back ... the only saving grace currently in my mind is they have weathered the uncertainty period without problem ... so far?

[redartbmud] 15/9/2019 14:23

A lively debate, thanks to the contributors.
Technology develops quickly in the modern age and it is not beyond the bounds of reason for a new product to appear, that eclipses all others.
Staying ahead of the game is important.
As has already been stressed, quality and reliability are fundamental requirements that are necessary to attract and retain customers. The barriers to change are high.

I will stick with my holding, for the foreseeable time.

red

[multibagger] 15/9/2019 13:07

I am no expert in how ARC and/or AYX software are similar or dissimilar. What I do know that ARC has earned the credibility to be integrated into the IT systems of various Tier 1 and other highly regarded financial institutions.

Not something that can just come about - it has to be earned. And FIs are generally a very risk averse bunch to IT software vendors messing around their highly integrated software systems with the security and crash risks that would entail.

The lengthy ARC investment in sales cycles, hand holding, proof of concept, value addition, responsiveness to customisation can't easily be replicated. Customer acquisition is almost painful, but once they have been landed, they stay there. There is no fighting to get out - and they are happy to pay in advance annually to stay in the net - the default being an automatic rollover of renewal of licences. If I recall correctly, only 3 customers have left in 10 years and there is an increase in the uptake of seats/licences.

How sticky is that ?

So I very comfortable holding ARC and anticipate doing so for a long time to come, unless fundamentals/prospects/black swan event intervene.

[apad] 15/9/2019 11:25

I know, multibagger, but I am still niggling away at future directions. cooltools put me right on a misunderstanding of Arcontech. Thinking out loud again! Apologies.

I see no reason why the Alteryx interface cannot work with real time data - one of its pricings is use as a server. So, I am wondering if Cooltools is correct (or if he is now, will he be correct in the future?)
I'll enquire with my user contact haw he uses it.
He has already indicated that Alteryx is streets ahead of Google and MSFT offerings.

I didn't mean to suggest that ARC and AYX are similar companies now. Badly worded.

At the moment I think ARC would be a great company to own outright, and I like its use of software folks for selling. They seem to be successful at selling new products to existing customers, but I guess everyone is waiting for news of new customers.
I nearly bought AYX twice over the last two years.
apad

[apad] 15/9/2019 10:55

It uses data from internal and external sources, Valhamos. Whatever the company uses.
apad

[valhamos] 15/9/2019 09:22

Alteryx looks like a low/medium level data analytics platform - can't see any reference to market data so don't think it's comparable to ARC.

[apad] 15/9/2019 08:08

Alteryx is up 600% in 3 years. It allows users to present and arrange data from multiple sources through a pictorial user interface, without even messing about with spreadsheet formulas. So, analysts can design data presentations without input from any computing expertise.
In my opinion this is the future direction of software for the financial industries.
Dunno how ARC fits in with this vector?
apad

[multibagger] 15/9/2019 04:37

Thanks cooltools for your insightful posts....based on what you say and the potential for ARC (in private discussions with other knowledgeable and experienced investors), I have heard a share price of £5 sometime in the next few years being mentioned.

Given fact that most/all new revenues will go straight to profit, any increase in their product uptake with Excelerator in particular can make this happen, sooner than we expect.

All said, I understand why LB has increased his stake.

Happy days and good luck all :)

[redartbmud] 14/9/2019 20:42

cool

Excellent post, providing some history and thoughts on the forward strategy that directors should sensibly be considering.
375p looks a long way from 190p, is it possible, on reasonable timescale?

The strength and weakness, of the company are the same.
The customers cannot afford to see any operational issues on their platforms. Once on board, they would need very good reasons and be totally committed to a switch to another provider. I would imagine the associated costs would also be significant. I would expect that dual systems would need to be operated, in parallel, for sufficient time, with the same data feed, to ensure that the replacement system is fit for purpose. Real time operations cannot fail, except in cases of force majeure.
Blue chips have deep pockets, and only want the best, but the undertaking is still massive- join or leave.

[cooltools] 14/9/2019 19:13

ARC is quite a difficult one to predict its potential. Any thoughts? Their customers, typically blue-chip investment banks, make decisions slowly - both to buy extra licenses, or to leave. So this has been a very long term investment.

So, I took a different tack. The directors have a lot of skin in the game. The initial price (reverse takeover of KTS) was for 1p/share back in 2008 (assuming they paid full price), equivalent to 125p after the consolidation. The shareprice drifted down to 0.06p in April 2012 (equivalent to 7.5p). That must have been very painful for the directors.

Personally, I trusted the company and invested heavily around this time, reaching just over 3% of the company. Would be nice to still have that, but don't regret the logic, of gradually top-slicing and reducing exposure in the face of Brexit - I was seriously worried a loss of any one of their customers, e.g. by moving to Europe, would hammer the shareprice. Feeling more confident now.

So, my thinking is the directors would at least like to see their money back, i.e. 125p, reached about a year ago. That was also my goal when I bought in at 0.07p (=> 9p). It's been 11 years, so they should be looking for a minimum of 2x or 3x before they start selling their shares in substantial quantities (especially when you consider CGT on that). So, to make their investment worthwhile, I reckon the directors are aiming to achieve a shareprice of at least 375p.

All IMO and E&OE - mostly from memory...

[multibagger] 13/9/2019 20:56

ARC powering on today to a new all time high...and not a single post ? I guess folks here are taking this as per script and nothing to get excited about. Pretty unbelievable.

Recall someone on this BB stating that he/she expected ARC at £2...which to be seemed far fetched IMHO about a year ago...but delighted to be proven wrong as we are within touching distance of the same.

[xajorkith] 11/9/2019 09:05

Strong vote of confidence from boros10, pushing his holding up close to £1m.

[multibagger] 11/9/2019 08:15

Spike on no news...the Boros effect ?

[janeann] 11/9/2019 07:41

Morning; No unable to attend. Hopefully we will get some feedback in due course.

j

[multibagger] 11/9/2019 07:26

Good morning Janeann,

There have been chunky transactions in ARC over the last several weeks, from what I recall.

Are you planning to attend the AGM in London on 03 Oct ?

[janeann] 11/9/2019 07:16

Most odd; the last few days its been impossible to sell even small amounts online ingand able to buy well below the offer. so was expecting a holding note to the effect someone had sold.

[multibagger] 11/9/2019 07:07

Holdings RNS:

Leon Boros increases ARC holding to 4.03% from 3.31%

Total holding: 532,774 shares

[wilmdav] 27/8/2019 11:55

I have updated the ARC page of my website, showing the results in bar chart form. It was quite a challenge to present the underlying picture as well as reported results, for the reasons referred to by other posters above.

Click on the Excel sheet tabs to see performance charts.

[xajorkith] 22/8/2019 09:22

Great results from a great little company that continues to deliver (wish I'd bought more back at 65-70p).

Results flattered again by the tax credit, but with tax losses of £8.7m, this is a real & ongoing tailwind for profits.

Sizable upgrades from Finncap re-enforcing the confident outlook.

[zipstuck] 22/8/2019 08:26

Just be aware of the accrual release and that they are not paying any tax yet