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[xxnjr] 24/8/2022 10:52

Getting back to Gazania. Was catching up on Africa Energy and Impact last night. I'm not necessarily seeing any read through with Impact. I would characterise Gazania as 'collateral baggage' from Impact's perspective. Impact's focus is really on pure play bottom of slope stuff. Gazania a completely different play type. AE's exploration guy is ex Energy Africa, who were acquired by TLW in 2004. TLW maintained EA's Cape Town exploration office for many years, so I'm sure Jan Maier would have worked up TLW's Uganda and Kenya on shore graben discoveries. So he definitely knows the 2B play. One good thing. Should they find oil then there ought to be plenty of follow on opportunities in the graben including on the bounding fault.

Impact seem to have changed quite a lot since I last looked about 5, or 7 yrs ago. Different backers. New people. Haven't got my head around all their refinancing's and deals.

Block 11B/12B EPS are 'advantaged' boe's of gas as can be evacuated part way by existing pipelines and then fed into existing onshore GTL facility. Wonder if same applies to the condensate?

[xxnjr] 23/8/2022 21:47

Exactly. Whats not to like.

[martinfrench] 23/8/2022 19:52

very creative that little hedge, i dont quite see how they get away with it...."if it falls below 20% for that delivery month they are obliged to sell, otherwise it goes on the mkt at spot prices"

get the second bit, and as kh says, he doesnt exxpect to ever sell at anything other than spot.

but dont understand how they can get a party to agree to the first part, because, unless they are the same party and linked

either way, i like it, so that hurdle is out of the way, a major issue of mine

no more $66 oil, 100+ from here (and we get brent + 6-10 dollars premium)

so easily 100+ dollars

[xxnjr] 23/8/2022 16:57

thx for the heads up. just seen it. Shows the power of OML 130 within the portfolio.

We have a pretty interesting hedging formula in place for prime. Won't try and explain it as over my head (but get the general gist). As an economist you may be interested in KH's description starting at about 12 mins on last results webcast and also covered (i think) in the Q&A. Wouldn't surprise if the program was thought up on the 14th floor Faria Lima offices of BTG Pactual in Sao Paulo. Was travelling around Brasil when they went through hyperinflation. Taming it, or living with it, created some extremely competent and sophisticated investment bankers. 3 of whom started BTG Pactual which subsequently became LATAM's largest investment bank.

[xxnjr] 23/8/2022 12:39

Totally agree about the G&G people being in charge. No I'm not on Stockhouse. Last time I looked (15 yrs ago) SH was a bit shallow, whilst plumbing the depths at the same time. I'll drop into fb occasionally (as a viewer).

[xxnjr] 22/8/2022 17:50

"Raila Odinga, who came second in Kenya's presidential election, has gone to court to challenge the result, describing it as "fraudulent". In a scathing 70-page legal argument, he alleges there was a pre-planned effort to alter the outcome.

According to the electoral commission, Mr Odinga took 48.8% of the vote, losing to William Ruto's 50.5%. An independent monitoring organisation said the commission's final result was in line with its own projection.

However, four of the seven electoral commissioners refused to endorse the outcome, alleging that the way the final results were tallied was "opaque".

The seven judges at the Supreme Court will have 14 days to make a ruling."

[xxnjr] 22/8/2022 16:10

Perhaps we could characterise ECO as intending to hit the Bullseye by entering some pretty interesting tournaments. However as these are held in private, no-one outside actually knows what happened. ECO always claim to have hit double-tops and bullseye's in their matches, but as outside observers weren't present, it all has to be taken with a large pinch of salt ;-)

The guys who run Impact are really smart. I used to have a large holding in Tullow from 2004 until just before they crashed (lucky and did OK). Bought back a relatively small holding 18 months or so ago and am a bit peeved Tullow exited the block immediately north of Venus. Exiting mid Venus-1 drill. Literally a few weeks before Total announced a major discovery. The guys who run privately owned Harmattan Energy (tlw's partner in that block and now as a result, a much larger equity holder) who are sequentially ex-Fusion, then ex-Ophir, are also extremely smart.

The trick, I think, is to partner with folks who are extremely smart. Keith Hill seems to have a knack for partnering with the right kind of people. In doing so, post Kenya standstill, he conjured up a more than decent exploration portfolio from almost nothing. Nigeria also a great acquisition.

[martinfrench] 22/8/2022 15:36

i think venus is pretty much a success, has come in, though there have been the odd bad appraisal well.

will be an awful lot of walking back by the media and other commentators if it isnt.....

agreed partly on gazania, though of course its up dip from an existing find, though flow rates were poor.

aoi have a very good track record of discoveries, and impact are also in through AFE. if it was just down to eco i wouldnt really be that excited, they just throw darts at a dart board

[xxnjr] 22/8/2022 14:52

Ok thanks for the info on fb mf. Please don't be put off by my general prejudice on COS. In a nutshell I view the COS numbers put out pre-drill by the smaller players as complete nonsense. Usually in the 20% to 35% range. Post drill reality of finding something commercial is often more like 10% (or even less) in an offshore frontier setting.

I view Venus in a completely different light. A huge amount of sand was dumped at base of slope creating giant fans. These are directly overlying very productive source rock. In this case i'll be disappointed if Venus didn't come in :)

But hey! its exploration. Anything could happen.

[martinfrench] 22/8/2022 09:21

its the right move xxnjr if you want a good thread that is veryb active, fbook i mean (i hate and dont use rest of the site)

you will hear things first from there for sure, and i am sort of co admin moderator (though dont do much if at all)

you are a bit behind the curve yes, and to answer yourb maersk question, the maersk trigger is for very high additional barrels to be found so unlikely to be triggered

why will you be amazed if gazania comes in ? sposed to have very good chance of success

[martinfrench] 19/8/2022 15:48

bloody hell, thought the thread was dead, spend most of my time on fbook/stockhouse, fbook good, stockhouse full of people that need treatment and have an agenda

yes, that news is one of the many pieces for h2, no company announcement yet though....

[xxnjr] 19/8/2022 15:44

Should keep the cash coming in.

".....NNPC agreed to extensions for five licences, for OMLs 128, 130, 132, 133 and 138. However, only one of these, OML 130, was renewed in line with the new Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). The other four have received approval to run for another 20 years – but under pre-PIA laws. OML 130 is operated by TotalEnergies and covers the Akpo and Egina fields."

[martinfrench] 04/5/2022 10:09

new 52 week high in stockholm, things looking really good......

[martinfrench] 28/4/2022 16:14

well,

all concerned partners will say that, they never overplay resources until the very very end (maybe Gil is the exception), as you know they simply cant speculate

even keith hill on the aoi results said looks good, but just wouldnt speculate, did say look at the woodmac piece

but the total guy is right, it will take appraisal wells and of course to get to the 13.4 billion we are obviously talking block 2912 venus west plus 2913b venus itself

but in due course it possibly will get to 13.4, from my experience reserves almost always get continually revised up

we shall see, still, aoi very undervalued, but we need something from kenya and AFE to keep it all going

[xxnjr] 28/4/2022 13:15

Patrick P. on the Total results webcast this morning tried to dampen down some of the speculation on Venus. "Stop reading newspapers. Listen to me..... Has a single well in the history of the industry ever discovered 10bn? Of course; No! That is fantasy! Let us drill the appraisal well, then test the 2 wells and then we'll see" He also suggested the 10bn could refer to the whole of offshore Namibia (not just their block). Appraisal gets underway Aug/Sept. Back to sleep.

[xxnjr] 27/4/2022 16:31

nyse:apa



[They renamed themselves APA, but most folks still regard them as Apache!]

[martinfrench] 27/4/2022 14:48

further delay or sharpen things up

namibia will leave them in the dust, they seem keen for obvious reasons...

whats the ticker for apache, and pretty honest of you to say the train has left the station which it clearly has but will still take a look

[xxnjr] 27/4/2022 14:20

That train has already left the station. Was $6, now about $40. Basically on OP recovery and cost control resulting in steady debt reduction plus share buybacks, Suriname exploration (yet to be completely quantified by Total who have drilled about 10 wells and noting Namibia may leapfrog Suriname in the development queue now) and decent economics onshore USA and Egypt(where production should grow following new consolidated/revised Egypt PSC).

Can't imagine Kenya is terribly high in Total's development queue. Tullow don't have much cash. Hence the need for a 'strategic partner'. Asian presumably? Maybe the Ukraine situation will concentrate minds? But there is an election in Kenya which could result in further delay?

[martinfrench] 27/4/2022 13:37

think all of the above will happen, kenya bloody slow though

they simply have to for energy security

apache ? whats the rough case ?

[xxnjr] 27/4/2022 12:55

Know how you feel mf as have posted all 51 of the 51 posts on the Apache 'discussion' over last 18 months, or so. Must love the sound of one handed clapping! To answer your Q; Yes, I'm in. Mainly for Venus, partly for Prime. Kenya? if that happens - that would be great as well but not exactly counting on it. Venus should do nicely. Oh, and if Pretoria get their act together, S.Afr could be another game changer.

[martinfrench] 27/4/2022 11:04

a new poster !

are you in xxjnr ? or thinking about it

if upstream are correct and they have been on everything so far, thats about $8 to aoi on venus alone, and were currently going to open around 2.60 in tsx land