Antonov Share Discussion Threads

[crystalclear] 02/2/2005 11:59

An Aston Martin DBR9, the racing version of the DB9.




Antonov's test driver, Peter Kox.

[crystalclear] 31/1/2005 23:59

Its a longer article and for copyright reasons, I won't paste the lot, but here is a new timetable for the Rover SAIC deal.



...

In an effort to preserve 60,000 jobs, Britain offered the incentive in the form of development aid. Sources at the manufacturer believe a deal could now be signed and ratified within six weeks.

...

[maysun] 30/1/2005 21:48

Crystalclear,

I say your girl friend is very nice looking!!!

[old giggleswickian] 29/1/2005 12:12

Crystalclear, your response is very informative and much appreciated. I would like to think that the British press reflect my views rather than the other way round, as your first post suggests, the only way into the game for SAIC is through the second division and hope for promotion next season. I am not old enough by a long way to be be a fan of British automotive engineering for mass production. I shall keep searching.

Ian.

[crystalclear] 29/1/2005 01:21

PS
There may be more value in the dual clutch transmission design than in the 5th generation AAD. Dual clutch transmissions might be the reason to put the design into production, but if most transmissions are initially sold as manual versions it will be the royalties on the manual variant of the DCA that make most of the money for the shareholders.

[old giggleswickian] 28/1/2005 23:25

Not a holder, yet, I have been asked to find out what I can. My basic research has taken me to the Antonov website and to Powertrain and I would be grateful if someone could correct my conclusions. It looks as though at the moment there is one product namely the ADD transmission which can be adapted to suit different engines. Although there is a plan to develop a supercharger this is presumably some way off.
The really tricky part is the exclusive agreement with Powertrain to fit it to a K-series engine "Antonov, the developer of new transmission technologies, today announces that Powertrain Ltd, the leading independent UK engine and transmission manufacturer, has taken out an exclusive licence to produce a new 6 speed electronic automatic transmission and a new dual clutch transmission. Since signing a wide-ranging "Heads of Agreement" in February 2004 the two companies have worked together to develop the Antonov technology from the prototype stage towards production readiness."
Are they saying that they are dealing exclusively with a company which is desperately trying to blindside the chinese into a deal for an old car with an old engine. Are they working with anyone serious on an up to date car. I remember Mr Edwards looking to save BL with the metro and a K series. An investment in a new technology is risky enough with out "riding on the coattails" of Mr Tower who can apparently look forward to a particularly prosperous retirement when he sees fit.

Ian.

[maysun] 28/1/2005 21:43

Crystalclear,

The chinese uncertainty has an negative impact on the SP, can you put it in simplest term what will happen if the deal fails to materialise?

[crystalclear] 26/1/2005 17:25

Government to provide £100m to sure-up (spelling?) the Rover SAIC deal?

[crystalclear] 23/1/2005 17:43

First mainstream press reference to Shanghai automotive being interested in gearboxes.





=

Assessing the value of assets in the long list of companies that make up MG Rover is extremely difficult, but unions and industry watchers agree that attention is focusing on the Longbridge Powertrain engine and gearbox business, which was sold separately to Phoenix Venture Holdings by BMW in 2001.

=

Last week, it was reported that machinery at the Powertrain plant was being packaged ready for shipping to China. Unions were concerned about the impact on jobs were the business to be transferred, but the company said the move was limited to giving the Chinese an insight into casting techniques. Powertrain generates some £200 million in revenue, supplying engines to Rover and other manufacturers.

Woodley says: 'The Chinese love assets, and Rover has good assets. What will happen with Powertrain?' In Shanghai, Dunne says: 'SAIC have been talking about engines. They want a four-cylinder and a six-cylinder. They cannot make a standalone car now, and need an engine. My understanding is that this is the number one thing they are talking about.'

[crystalclear] 19/1/2005 13:49

FAO Holmess
You asked about Antonov on the TRK thread - (my question) will we see a 2006 Rover 45 from Shanghai Automotive in Pudong?
Here is another statement saying Tony is doing what he can to help, this time from the FT.

[grupo] 12/1/2005 10:07

Aerospace steel for race car transmissions

By Roger Worsley
International metals company Corus has won a contract to supply its specialist, ultra clean steel to independent engineering consultancy Ricardo. It will be used to manufacture Ricardo's latest generation of ultra high performance sports car and motorsport transmissions and gearboxes.
Corus' Engineering Steels business, based in Rotherham, will supply Ricardo's Midlands Technical Centre in Leamington Spa, UK with the steel, usually exclusively supplied to the aerospace industry. This product is used extensively by manufacturers of helicopter.
Ricardo will use Corus' steel to manufacture small numbers of high performance sports car and motorsport transmissions, including the gearbox for the new Bugatti Veyron supercar.
Commenting on how Ricardo will benefit from Corus' extensive material experience gained in other industry sectors, Chris Dale, sales manager, Corus Engineering Steels, says 'for over five decades Corus has been developing and supplying the very highest quality products to meet the exacting demands of its aerospace customers, where any premature failure of critical components could have potentially catastrophic consequences.'
Ricardo director of motorsport, Mark Barge adds: 'the transmission is one of the most highly stressed components in any vehicle and never more so than in a sports car or in the high performance motorsport arena where stress loads are unparalleled.
'Mechanical integrity and reliability are paramount to a transmission's success and the quality of materials we use is critical which is why we are delighted to be using Corus' proven aerospace steel.'
Racing cars fitted with Ricardo designed and manufactured transmissions have enjoyed immense success over the last few years, including a recent 50th win for the Le Mans Audi R8 sportscar.
Also, dominance at last year's Silverstone 1000km Le Mans Endurance Event, where teams using Ricardo transmissions won the top six places in both the race and qualifying sessions.
Corus' aerospace gear steel is manufactured at the company's Stocksbridge plant in South Yorkshire using specialised vacuum arc re-melting technology.
The process involves the slow, controlled re-melting, under vacuum, of high quality steels initially produced by conventional steelmaking techniques.
This additional process removes impurities and improves the microstructure of the steel, which in turn improves material integrity and reduces the risk of fatigue failure.
Corus' Stocksbridge facility, which currently boasts four vacuum arc re-melting (VAR) furnaces, has recently enjoyed a series of investments worth approaching £10 million that will see the installation of a new furnace in 2005.
Corus' Chris Dale: 'The new VAR furnace will increase our capacity to manufacture these specialist re-melted products and will provide us with a strong platform for further growth in the automotive sector.'
Ricardo will also benefit from Corus Engineering Steels' just-in-time service developed in association with the company's Aerospace Service Centre in Bolton and established to meet the current high demand from the aerospace industry for high quality re-melted products.
Ricardo's Mark Barge says 'In addition to the quality of the material, we were also impressed by the quality of service Corus could offer. We are confident that they can supply us as and when required within 24 hours of an order being placed to meet our specific manufacturing schedules.'
Corus Engineering Steels currently supplies gear steels to many of the industry's leading transmission manufacturers including Xtrac, Quaife, Cosworth, BMW, Daimler Chrysler, Eaton, Ford, GM and ZF.
Corus Engineering Steels is a fully integrated business with manufacturing, commercial, stockholding and distribution operations and directly exports to more than 40 countries. It is a significant global supplier to the aerospace industry.
Besides Rotherham, Stocksbridge and Wolverhampton, CES has manufacturing facilities at Wednesbury in the Midlands and stockholders/service centres in Sheffield, Wolverhampton, Bolton, Hetton and Slough.
It has an annual turnover of over £600m and produces in excess of one million tonnes of steel a year.
CES has embarked on a major restructuring programme to establish competitive process routes in steelmaking, casting primary/secondary rolling and finishing, at a cost of £100 million, announced in April 2003. This programme is will be completed in mid-2005.
With technical centres in the UK, USA, Germany and the Czech Republic, Ricardo is an independent technology provider and strategic consultant to the world's automotive industries.
The company's engineering expertise ranges from vehicle systems integration, controls, electronics and software development, to the latest driveline and transmission systems and gasoline, diesel, hybrid and fuel cell powertrain technologies.
Its customers include the world's major vehicle, engine and transmission manufacturers, tier 1 suppliers and leading motorsport teams. A public company, Ricardo plc posted sales of £137 million in fiscal year 2003.

[crystalclear] 22/12/2004 22:32

Thanks,
Good luck to you too. There's a crowd of hippy guitar playing Swiss investors each with their own login ID, is that about right. None of my business really. Have a good time and fingers crossed that SAIC partner with MG Rover formally next year, and that somebody mentions Antonov in the same breath, so that we don't go unnoticed.
MG Rover rumoured to be the fourth entrant in the DTM next year. Not announced yet. SAIC waiting to sign with MG Rover. Is it all interlinked? Antonov's test driver is 2003 Le Mans winner Peter Kox.
Oh, its easy to speculate too far and end up in a big mess. SAIC Rover tie up in January next year as per press in The Independent will do me. Prosperous new year in advance to you all (maywillow, grupo, etc)!

[maywillow] 22/12/2004 19:03

Happy Holidays Crystal

[crystalclear] 22/12/2004 16:14

Since this seems to be the main 'discussion' thread, and that suits me as I like to file research by subject - there is just so much of it - I guess I'll just make a note here that I've posted today about Rotrex moving HQ to a new factory with place for significant production expansion, and that SAIC should be signing with MG Rover next month.

See the related threads, Rotrex and SAIC for further details.

[crystalclear] 22/12/2004 16:11

The article is much bigger, but for copyright reasons, just a snippet is given here.


...
The SAIC deal is due to be consummated at a formal signing ceremony at Longbridge in January. Mr Ramsay rejected suggestions that MG Rover may have jeopardised the joint venture by talking prematurely about it, pointing out that two agreements had been signed with the Chinese in the past week covering the development of a new medium car, due out in 2006, and another new model.
...

[crystalclear] 17/12/2004 11:38

That's right, I calculated all the known cash coming in from the last reported balance, the half yearly results to the end of June. Then I calculated how long all the received cash would last from the end of June. Sorry, it looks like some of the figures are bank balances at particular dates, and they are not, they are totals of money in before considering money out.

I've noticed another mistake (from a copy paste not editted properly will change that in red above). Have to go Xmas shopping but want to call the company - people waiting with coats on downstairs - life is hard!

[konil] 17/12/2004 09:35

crystalclear - thanks for all the hard graft and posting your results.
one question though, i cant see how £1.4m at £7342 per day only goes upto 8th Jan 2005, surely it would last longer than that? about 190 days (6 months)?

[crystalclear] 16/12/2004 23:48

First thing to note now is its not long!
Second thing to notice is that there is no open offer in progress.

What's that about? When Antonov has been short of cash from institutions, it has tapped its private shareholders for more money. This is an expensive operation as it requires a great deal of paperwork for shareholders that contribute relatively small amounts. Hence there might be cause for concern, but this can be modulated with remarks like "things have been worse in the past".

Thirdly. Antonov have been awarded some paid work.
This is omitted from the calculations simply because there is no current estimate for how much Antonov will be paid, and when. So things might not be too bad.

Fourthly. NZWL.
They should have gone into production some time in 2003 or 2004. It is widely believed that there are minimum production figures in the contract. Gajra defaulted on their contract and maybe NZWL are doing the same. Maybe there will be a pleasant surprise: production. Or maybe they will pay a penalty. That's all speculation and doesn't help much.

David was a confident and happy man at the recent EGM so I don't think there are any concerns. A lonely £10k in the accounts at the end of the last financial year looked bad, yet 6 months later, it still seems to be business as usual for Antonov. Ah, I've thought of another.

Fifthly. SAIC.
Rover have reported recently - yesterday or today I believe - that they are still on track to have the SAIC deal announced within a month.

Maybe that is the key one.

Antonov is partnered with Powertrain Limited. There is no point raising money at current prices when the share price should logically be higher if SAIC are a confirmed consumer of the Antonov transmissions. That is clearly Antonov's intent. I have a video of Christopher Ross talking about SAIC on CNBC.

NZWL and SAIC both have temporal tie-ins with my calculated cash expiry date.
But NZWL seems a dead duck and SAIC seems alive and kicking. I'd guess SAIC, but maybe a call to the company would answer some questions too. I guess that's tomorrows work!

[crystalclear] 16/12/2004 23:31

Ok, I may have missed something, so I'll say where my figures are coming from so that anybody can correct calculations as they see fit. Notification of major mistakes are welcome, but I'm shoddy with exchange rates so don't bother telling me that! I've just used €1.5 = £1.

Accounts at end of June 2004 = not a lot, £10,000!
€15,000

Fund raising 22/07/04
3,000,000 shares at €0.50
€1,500,000 or £1,000,000

Total now £1,010,000.00 or €1,515,000.00

see
800,000 shares at €0.45
€360,000.00 or £240000

Total now £1,250,000.00 or €1,875,000.00

Loan note conversion (so no cash, just cleared debt!)
Loan 06/11/03
Conversion 13/09/04

Total still £1,250,000.00 or €1,875,000.00

Latest fund raising December 2004
500,000 shares at €0.50
€250,000 or £166667

Total now £1,416,666.67 or €2,125,000.00

OKAY, that was looking at what comes in.
Now let's look at what goes out!

Last reported burn rate:
1,329,000 £
for period
01/01/04 30/06/04
ie 181 days.

Burn rate £7,342.54 or €11,013.81 per day

Dividing total cash by burn rate, estimated to last until 08/01/2005.

So that's the calculations overs.