Antonov Share Discussion Threads

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 17:08

Wow!

I thought they would just drive them out of business economically and indirectly via emissions and economy legislation. Just plain 'close your company now' type orders - yikes!

This is really good news for the likes of Antonov as it means they don't have to try to reach these small companies via tier-1 sales. The car customers will effectively not have much choice. They will have to go to a large car company!

(I've found a link to very the above posting
)

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 17:03

China puts brakes on small car companies
Jin Jing
2006-01-25 Beijing Time
MORE than 140 Chinese automakers have been ordered to shut down production as the government moves to better allocate manufacturing resources and rein in excess capacity.

The names of the 144 companies destined for production cuts were posted by the National Development and Reform Committee. They will be shuttered by February 10 unless they can convince the committee they should be allowed to remain in business.

Most of the companies are small private firms that make cars, trucks and motorcycles. Within the target group, 124 manufacturers will not be allowed to make any auto-related products. Twenty others must reduce production. The order also rescinds vehicle identification numbers held by the companies and prevents them from passing on the numbers to other manufacturers.

"In order to avoid a possible waste of auto resources, it is necessary to shut down these small plants," said Jia Xinguang, chief analyst at China's National Automotive Industry Consulting and Development Corp.

"The industrial shutdown targets small automakers that can't maintain production or sustain market demand and who don't have enough research and development capability to support future development." "The industrial clean up will also help the government create a more efficient auto industry.

"
China now has more than 6,222 auto-related vehicle manufacturers, and the country is producing 2 million more vehicles than the market demands.

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 16:59

Putting technological barriers on the small Chinese makers that cannot afford the R&D to reach Euro IV emmisions standards etc, will help strengthen SAIC, Nanjing, Great Wall Motors, etc. that have the financial muscle. Focussing on supporting independent brands will help SAIC-Rover, Nanjing and Great Wall as well, as it will put pressure on Changan Ford, SAIC GM, SAIC VW, BMW China Brilliance, etc.

The Chinese governement is smart. They have financial stakes in SAIC and Nanjing, ensure they get the latest technology: Powertrain Limited's electronically controlled valve project, Antonov transmisison project, etc, and then legislate fuel economy and emissions rules accordingly.

Great Wall Motors seems to me to be private. Their huge expansion project seems to be funded by Hong Kong investors. That should ensure they are on the list of survivor exporters too, and not on the list of small Chinese car makers which I expect to die out or suffer consolidation.

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 16:46

2006-01-26 14:59:29





BEIJING, Jan. 26 -- In view of the current situation of excess capacity in the auto industry, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will publish related policies this year to curb blind expansion of production capacity in this industry by raising the threshold of access in terms of technological innovation and other aspects, revealed Zhu Hongren, deputy director of the NDRC Economy Operation Department, at the press conference on China's economic operation in 2005 held on Tuesday.
Although macro-control has achieved evident effects, the conflict of oversupply in the auto industry is more and more predominant as many new projects were put into production in recent two years. Incessant price war in the auto market also gives rise to a shrinking overall profit of this industry. Zhu remarked that according to NDRC statistics, China's auto output approximately amounted to eight million units in 2005 while its auto sales only totaled 5.7 million units. Projects in the process of planning and under construction will further intensify the conflict between auto supply and demand this year.
Zhu said that at present China's auto enterprises are plagued by chaotic management and serious blind investment, which is at odds with development of the international auto industry. Based on related statistics, 90% of the 60 million cars produced in 2004 in the world were made by less than 20 major auto enterprises. In China, however, its auto production were scattered in many enterprises which are small in scale, low in technology level and weak in independent innovation capability.
Zhu added that China will elevate the threshold of access to the auto industry from the point of view of environmental protection, energy saving and technological innovation and focus on supporting enterprises with independent brands. At the same time, China will back reconstruction of supporting infrastructures and allow more environment-friendly, energy-saving, low-emission autos to run on the road.

(Source: Chinanews.cn)

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 16:34

PKW
With the 100 day restructuring program, it would make sense that SAIC plans to use similar engines and transmissions in SAIC and Ssangyong branded vehicles. This seems evident to me, based on SAIC making Ssangyong vehicles in China and Ssangyong making vehicles based on SAIC platforms, together with knowledge that SAIC are working on a K-series engine for Ssangyong vehicles.

US $2.5 thousand million is a lot of money, and that must surely include manufacturing facilites for new vehicles and that likely means new transmission technology inside these vehicles. I don't think SAIC and Ssangyong have any new transmission technology of their own other than what Antonov develop for them.

It looks to me like there is the potential for 150,000 Antonov transmissions to be made per year in Korea as a result of this, a combination of automatics (Antonov Automatic Driver,AAD,as per Rover 25), dual clutch transmissions (Dual Clutch Antonovs, DCA), and their single clutch (manual) equivalents.

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 15:53

SAIC's South Korean JV boosts investment



Last Updated(Beijing Time):2006-01-26 12:44


Shanghai Automotive Industry Crop said yesterday its South Korean venture, Ssangyong Motor Corp, will invest 2.5 trillion won (US$2.5 billion) in the next five years to develop new models and boost capacity.

The investment will allow South Korea's fourth-largest automaker to produce 340,000 units by 2010, double this year's sales target, according to a statement from SAIC.

"This is an initial investment in a mid-to-long-term strategy, and we hope it will help Ssangyong improve international competitiveness and achieve its development plan," the Shanghai-based automaker said.

SAIC, China's second-largest carmaker, owns 50.91 percent of the joint venture. There were no details on how the investment funds would be raised.

Seventy percent of the total amount will be used for developing new models and technologies. The JV is expected to roll out three new sport utility vehicles, two luxury cars and one multi-purpose vehicle within five years.

The company, which makes the Kyron, Actyon and other SUVs, has just finished a diesel hybrid car and plans to start small-scale production in 2008, the latest measure to improve its competitiveness in cleaner-energy vehicles.

Ssangyong Motor plans to double its sales in its domestic market from 87,000 units to 153,000 by 2010, hoping to increase its market share from 6.6 percent in 2005 to more than 10 percent. The company also plans to boost exports 50 percent to 186,000 units by 2010, accounting for about 55 percent of total sales.

Last year, the company sold 141,000 vehicles, up 4.2 percent year on year, generating 3.4 trillion won in revenue.

Its exports jumped 80.5 percent to 67,763 units amid weak domestic demand for SUVs due to surging oil prices.

"It's an aggressive plan," Kim Sang Ik, an analyst at Daishin Securities Co, told Bloomberg News. "I'm very concerned as to whether it will be able to succeed."

SAIC paid US$500 million for a 48.9 percent stake in the Korean automaker in October 2004 and acquired another 2 percent through stock market purchases in early 2005.

The Shanghai-based automaker is expected to invest US$1 billion to Ssangyong by 2010.

SAIC finished a 100-day-restructuring program in May last year after the merger and is considering production of Ssangyong SUVs on the Chinese mainland.

The JV investment plan comes as SAIC pursues aggressive expansion in the international market.

Among its efforts, SAIC last year bought technologies and models from the failed MG Rover Corp of the United Kingdom.

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 12:33

Great Wall Motors announcement, see great wall thread

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 03:11

(Beware of pop-ups!)

This is a German motoring press article from Dusseldorf discussing the probability of Antonov beating Toyota in the court case about Toyota using an Antonov CVT in the Prius, etc.
Funnily, Dusseldorf is the town where the court case is being held, and they have the views of a non-commital lawyer, pretending to be an expert, but sitting on the fence just saying that it's complicated.
The court proceeding consists of paperwork flying round, Toyota giving their view, Antonov replying, etc. I think we are at one of the deadlines for the paperwork round about now.

Has the public article been triggered by the private court proceedings - a leak? Or is it coincidence that the time and place seem to match?



There is a tight triangle on the chart. Rising support is meeting the steady 120+ resistance line. If we fail to break upward in the next few days, it means the rising support line has gone. If we don't get through 125p in the next few days, the share price might not break 125p until some news comes, or the results come out (maybe at the end of March).

[crystalclear] 26/1/2006 01:11

Antonov: web-partner of the week, see link above, presumably this week!

[crystalclear] 24/1/2006 15:09

Charges Filed Against Former Toyota Motorsport Senior Managers
18th January 2006

Three former members of the senior management of the Cologne, Germany based Toyota Motorsports Formula One team are facing charges related to the use of technology allegedly stolen from the rival Ferrari F1 team.

A statement issued by Toyota confirmed that former vice-chairman and team principal Ove Andersson; former chief designer Gustav Brunner; and former head of aerodynamics Rene Hilhorst had been named Cologne prosecutors as standing accused of violating German competition law by using a data analysis programme brought to the Toyota team by a technician who joined from Ferrari in 2002. A separate investigation of the former Ferrari staff member is being conducted in Italy and the by Cologne prosecutors.

The Toyota statement said, "Toyota Motorsport has not been formally notified of the above matter and does not have full knowledge of the specific issues. Toyota Motorsport would like to stress that the charges have not been brought against the company. For this reason, Toyota wishes to refrain from further comment, but remains confident that the situation will be resolved with a positive conclusion for those involved."

A Cologne court that specialises in economic crimes will hear the case, although no date has been fixed for hearings.

In an interview with the Italian SportAutoMoto website Brunner said, "No one has told me anything about it. Never has my name been linked with this story, also because I have nothing to do with it.

"I have never been mentioned before, nor has any lawyer, judge, prosecutor or other ever contacted me. Never have there been any inquiry directly on me, nor have there been inspections on my computer and my documentation.

"I don't really understand how and why this is all coming out now, and this is something that annoys me greatly."

[crystalclear] 24/1/2006 01:13

Good, see SAIC thread!

Ssangyong to make Rovers in Korea I believe, and SAIC to make Ssangyongs in China. SAIC are believed to be working on K-series (ie Rover based) engines for Ssangyong vehicles so there is the potential for SAIC using matching (hopefully Antonov) tranmissions there too.

[crystalclear] 24/1/2006 00:22

24 Jan 2006

Car maker plans to boost exports with new models

January 24, 2006 ㅡ Ssangyong Motor Co., Korea's fourth largest automobile manufacturer, presented an aggressive long-term investment plan yesterday.
Ssangyong announced that it would invest more than 1 trillion won ($1 billion) by 2008 to produce a luxury sedan and a sport utility vehicle in Korea.
The plan was approved during a board meeting held Dec. 27 with executives from the car company's largest shareholder, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., participating, the company said.

The Korean car manufacturer will also launch a follow-up model to its luxury sedan, the Chairman, in 2008. Ssangyong specializes in sport utility vehicles and recreational vehicles, such as the Rexton and the Korando.

The new vehicle will use the same frame used by the Chairman. Ssangyong, however, plans to develop its own gasoline engine with a cylinder capacity over 2,500 cc to install in the new sedan. A small sport utility vehicle will be introduced to the market in the second half of next year. The vehicle will be using a frame that Shanghai Automotive Industry purchased from the British carmaker MG Rover.

The new vehicle will be smaller than Ssangyong's sport utility vehicle, the Actyon, which was introduced last year.

Ssangyong said it would strengthen its technology partnership with Shanghai Automotive Industry. "We have decided to support Shanghai Automotive Industry's development of its own independent model using Ssangyong Motor's technology and vehicle platform," a Ssangyong Motor spokesman said.

The Chinese car company is to start producing an independent model in the second half of 2007. The vehicle, however, will be using the frame for Ssangyong's sport utility vehical, the Kyron.
Last year, Ssangyong invested more than 300 billion won in new vehicle development and in expanding its facilities.

by Kim Tae-jin

[pkw] 21/1/2006 16:20

crystalclear - I have heard this too; not a rumour,fact. Good news.

[crystalclear] 21/1/2006 15:58

I have another entry for the list of expectations!

It is widely rumoured that there is an Antonov supercharged Ford Mustang in existence which is shortly due to be in the hands of motoring journalists for test drives. This should create articles and the articles are likely to be positive. (Motoring press that write badly about the stuff they are lent do not get lent the stuff again! ANd court cases tend to be for negative remarks, not positive remarks too.) When positive articles are published, that could have a positive impact on the company's public image too.

[waldron] 20/1/2006 17:39

All ok by Waldron de la Grupo GuitarLumber

Have a great Weekend

[crystalclear] 20/1/2006 16:56

MG Rover Factory of Nanjing Auto Group to be completed construction this year
Update:2006-1-11 14:24:04
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nanjing Auto Group's purchase of MG Rover brings Nanjing a new auto factory.

According to the introduction, the capacity of the future Nanjing MG Rover Factory will reach 200 thousand autos, 250 thousand engines and 100 thousand gear-boxes.

MG Rover Factory of Nanjing Auto Group is located in High-level New Technology Economic Development Zone in Pukou.

It is predicted that the factory will be completed construction in seven or nine months. The total structural area will reach 290 thousand square meters.

According to the purchase agreement, Nanjing Auto Group buys a set of whole enterprise assets from Britain, including MG and Austin brands, production technology and equipments of sports cars MG75, MG45, MG25 and MGTF and engines of three series.

[crystalclear] 20/1/2006 14:08

Liarspoker, PKW




Use the Antonov discussion thread and you'll find charts and news.
I have threads researching different companies. Without some sort of organisation to information, I'll never be able to piece together the whole story. For example GWM production information, their K-series vehicles, their appearance at the Bologna motor show in December and their plans for 50% exports in 2008, their plans to make transmissions, and the capital they are investing, and their Antonov involvement,.... if that wasn't all together I'd forget half the story before I learned the other half, and not be able to piece it together.

So I am always going to organise notes (research) on a company by company basis.

To just chat, use Grupo's thread



If we can agree to that I'd be pleased.

Lots of research is not directly Antonov related. For example GWM's plans to export around 50% at around the time the Antonov transmission could be hitting the market is only circumstantially related to Antonov. The Chinese have problems exporting cars as the intellectual property tends to be American, German and Japanese. One might assume that by aquiring K-series rights and Antonov transmission rights, that Antonov is their way to start exporting and double their sales. But its more a hunch than anything written in black and white. The hard leg work just doesn't interest most investors.

So Grupo's thread for discussion then?

[pkw] 19/1/2006 15:20

Cystalclear - you have even more expectations listed than I have! Therein is the difference. But let us settle for OEM order for 100k units for automotive;very good resolution of Toyota issue; Chinese take up; Honda take up.

What price ATV? - £2.50? £3.50?

Buy more.

[pkw] 19/1/2006 12:28

City rumours suggest that ATV will confirm all expectations and much more in the not too far future. Announcements of further deals expected. And are Toyota realising that they had better make a very substantial payment in settlement to ATV for claims of patent infringement, rather than risk the German courts verdict?

One of my favourites for 2006 - at least to double from here.

[crystalclear] 16/1/2006 13:44

China names top 10 auto makers in 2005
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2006-01-16 09:18
China has issued a ranking of the top 10 motor vehicle companies based on their sales performance in 2005.

The top three are First Automotive works (FAW), Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, which sold 983,100, 917,500 and 729,000 cars in 2005 respectively.

These 10 companies account for over 80 percent of China's auto market in 2005. It is the first time for the Anhui-based Chery company and Zhejiang-based Geely firm to enter top 10. They sold 189,000 and 149,000 cars in 2005, up 118 and 49 percent respectively.

The list was compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Last year, China's vehicle output grew 12.56 percent to 5.71 million units over the previous year, and sales of domestically-made vehicles grew 13.54 percent to 5.76 million units, according to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

==========

China now 2nd largest auto market in world

BEIJING -- More vehicles were sold in China last year than in Japan, making China the world's second largest auto market after the United States, with almost 6 million units sold, a state newspaper said on Friday.

But if imports of 160,000 were excluded, China was still number three, the People's Daily said.

[crystalclear] 13/1/2006 21:19

Nanjing presses ahead with MG Rover plans

ALYSHA WEBB
Automotive News

NANJING Automobile is going ahead with plans to build cars based on MG Rover designs despite a continuing battle over who owns the intellectual property rights.

In 2007, the Chinese company plans to build 13,000 cars based on the Rover 75/MG ZT lower-premium sedan. It also plans 7,000 MG TF convertible sports cars. Nanjing's Rover 75-based cars will be mostly sedans that will be called the MG 7. They will also build some station wagons called the MG 7T.

Nanjing plans to start serial production in March 2007. It intends to build the MG 7 in both China and at the former MG Rover factory in Longbridge, England. The sports car will be assembled in China and sold in both China and the UK, says a supplier source. By 2011, Nanjing hopes to assemble 85,000 MG 7s a year and 25,000 MG TFs. Nanjing will source as many parts as possible in China for both models to keep costs down, says the supplier source.

Nanjing is already seeking price quotes from suppliers in China, including many who are already making parts for a version of the MG 75 that will be assembled by SAIC Motor Co., a subsidiary of Shanghai Automotive Industries Corp. In 2004, SAIC bought from UK automaker MG Rover the intellectual property rights to the Rover 75 and 25 models, plus several engine families. SAIC hoped to buy Powertrain, MG Rover's engine production subsidiary, at a bargain after the company filed for bankruptcy. But UK bankruptcy administrators instead chose Nanjing as the purchaser.

SAIC sources say the agreement under which SAIC purchased the intellectual property rights of the 75 has loopholes that allow Nanjing to also make the sedan. That means there could be two copies of the Rover 75 on Chinese roads in a few years.

But industry insiders say Nanjing and SAIC will eventually be forced to cooperate in building Rover-based cars. Indeed, the Chinese government has already told the two to work things out, say sources close to both companies. Many doubt that Nanjing can achieve its ambitious production plans alone. MG Rover's Longbridge plant closed in April 2005 after the financially troubled British carmaker collapsed. Nanjing bought MG Rover's assets last July for £54 million (€79 million).

Nanjing's production plan


2007 MG 7 (Rover 75) 13,000 2011 85,000
MG TF sports car 7000 25,000

[crystalclear] 13/1/2006 21:10

Car: Other Manufacturer

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 335


Mmm this is interesting, here's a proper translation of the article above.

南汽126;年出高档$735;车 定价20多万๗0;名公开征༓8;

NAC seeks new name for upmarket sedan priced at the RMB200k mark to be launched early next year

　　013;新浙江网16376;11日Ĭ05; 记者152;日从南汽!719;悉,位;于高6032;开发;区的1335;汽MGŅ99;孚基地建ť74;已经拉开ò07;幕,预计年869;基本完工290;据南汽透&706;, 未来340;南京MG罗孚工厂ߝ5;能将会达࠸0;20万辆整车289;25万ࡤ8;发动机和10975;台变速箱290;而将于明180;上半年下 447; 的高723;轿车MG75,定价;只有20多万Ð03;。

Constructions have begun at the NAC-MGRover base at the Gaoxin Development Zone, to be coompleted within this year (Damn that's FAST - but considering they built a SARS hospital from scratch in 7 days in Beijing this is hardly surprising). NAC had announced that the new works has a capacity of 200k cars, 250k engines and 100k gearboxes (heard this one before), and the upmarket MG 75 luxury sedan will be priced at the RMB200k pricepoint.

　　335;汽MG಻9;孚工厂位ߛ0;浦口的高ਫ2;产业经济ঀ0;发区,目前Õ78;区的地质ż75;探已经结Ĉ63;,工厂设计635;图也完成102;审 查,预5745;7-9个376;时间基本436;工,建;成后5152;有厂;房和1150;公及;辅助5774;施等;总建1569;面积;将达1040;29万ñ79;方米。按Õ35;汽的计划,170;年 完成037;厂的建设,4182;进入;设备3433;装调;试阶7573;,争ࡢ2;2007年ߍ8;半年投产࠲6;车。

The new NAC-MGRover plant is located at the Gaoxin Industrial Economic Development Zone in Puko, Nanjing. Currently, the geological assessment of the site has been completed, the design blueprint approval of the factory has also been processed. The construction is projected to be completed in 7-9 months, once finished, all factories, offices and amenities will occupy 29000 square metres. According to NAC's plans, the constructions of the buildings will be finsihed this year, folowed by installtion of production lines and equipment, plus testing and adjustments - production is scheduled to begin in the first half of 2007.

　　681;据收购协#758;,南汽;从英2269;购买;的是
9968;套完;整的0225;业资;产,包括MG和Austin品牌,并得Ò40;了4款整车 的生135;技术和设791;,也就;是MG75、;MG45、MG251644;MGTF跑6710;,其ߑ3;MG75、45289;25分࠷5;是高 中低977;个档次的$735;车。另外$824;有三个系015;的发动机,0998;别是;2.0L柴油;机、2.0L-2.5L的NV61995;列发;动机,以及1.1L-1.8L的N4系;列发1160;机。;但其0013;不包;括罗3386;品牌;的知5782;产权;。

According to the acquisition agreement, NAC has bought a complete set of MG Rover's enterprise assets (?), including the MG and Austin brands, as well as the manufacturing facilities and technologies of 4 car models, namely the 75, 25, 45 and the TF. The 25, 45, 75 are respectively the entry-level, mid-level and upmarket models. The three engine lines bought by NAC are the 2.0 litre diesel engine (G-series?), 2-2.5 litre NV6 petrol engines (N-series), and 1.1-1.8 litre N4 series engines. But the intellectural property of the Rover brand is not included.

　　454;悉,最;先投0837;生产;的是9640;档轿;车MG75,ཀ4;计将于明ॲ0;上半年下ಬ7;,定价只有202810;万元;。MG75国;产 以后340;名字还没377;确定,南汽7491;在向;社会4449;集产;品的0013;文名;字。

The first model to be produced is the MG 75. Scheduled to be launched early 2007 with a price upwards of 200k RMB. Note that the model name is not finalised (I guess MG75 is an interrim name seeing as they can't call it a Rover), and NAC is seeking a new name publicly.

　　973;借此次收$141;,南汽;还顺1183;将自;主研1457;提上;了议0107;日程;。据0102;解,ल5;MG罗孚进行216;术研究和135;品开发工316;已 经展320;。南汽将003;报建立国478;级汽车工243;研究中心,0197;将收;入囊0013;的工;艺进4892;消化;吸收,推出೽8;主品 牌的135;品。

NAC has also announced its product development agenda, it is understood that work has already begun for the development of future MG Rover products. NAC will apply for the development of a world-class automotive R&D centre, in order to utilise the assets it has acquired (heard this one before)

　　454;悉,作;为高6723;轿车;最大1334;点的;外观6896;型专;利不2312;南汽;手里,大部࠳8;知识产权ࡍ3;括外形专࠷3;,已被上海Ņ99;孚买 走。335;汽面临两181;选择,一是1644;上海;罗孚1512;作,ߚ8;是选择改ࣁ1;,自主研发z90;

It is understood that the interllectual property rights of the upmarket sedan's exterior design do not belong to NAC. Most of the intellectual property rights of the model including the exterior design are owned by Shanghai Rover (?? Now that's a name i've never heard of). NAC faces two choices: to collaborate with SAIC Rover or redesign the car.

　　456;关人士介 461;说,改;型必8982;要修;改制6896;模具;,成本加大Ӎ0;仅仅只是ऴ7;改还好,如ĉ24;是引擎盖Š01;改型则"一457;动 全身"
2290;据悉;,截至目前,Õ35;汽还没有Ø44;上海合作į40;想法。知÷73;人士称,此069;已经委托!521;国一家知517;设计公司570;了 大改644;小改两个041;案,但;是否7319;用还;未最1518;定。;

According to people in the know, in order to change the appearance, the dies and presses but be changed, which would increase the cost. It is alright for minor changes, but changes such as a new bonnet would involve the redesign of other parts. As of now, NAC has no plans for collaboration with SAIC (now that flies in the face of some of the other reports). According to insiders, a famous British design house has been commissioned to work on one major facelift and two minor ones, however no decision has been made on the new designs.

[crystalclear] 13/1/2006 20:54

The new SAIC Rover 75
(Antonov is developing their countershaft transmission (DCA) in automated dual clutch and single pedal clutch version, for the Rover 75 I believe.)
See Nanjing thread for the MG 75 version.