Angus Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jtidsbadly] 19/3/2024 12:30

1347: yes, they experienced downtime of 10% in the year to September 2023. The flow is reasonably stable currently but only two thirds of what it was when they started the plant nearly 18 months ago. And, as you observe, the gas price is a fraction of what it was then. To maintain the flow, they’ll need another two wells in the next two years and another compressor. With declining gas production until a fourth well is on stream, with much lower hedge prices and the massive costs involved in drilling in this very difficult field, the cash flow from the existing plant won’t get near the costs they’re likely to incur. Meanwhile the gas pressure is declining week by week now, as forecast by Wingas and by the CPRs. And we know nothing about the Trafigura offtake agreement. If it were favourable to Anguish, we should have heard a lot.

I think it’s clear that Mr. ‘Erbert is going for gas storage to rescue Anguish. But Trafigura can only be expected to keep Anguish in business for as long as the small investors/mugs/gerbils continue to suspend disbelief and average further and further down. It’s a race to the bottom between this and Vast. My money’s still on Vast to win. By half a length or so.

[1347] 19/3/2024 11:23

JT Yes but that sidetrack etc comes under investing activities the figures I gave above exclude that pretty much, hence the term underlying. One thing we can be pretty sure of in FY2024 is that the volumes are drifting down and the gas prices are a lot lower, so it's not going to get any better is it. I struggle to see how they will finace the works programme they have envisaged. Oh the Going Concern states: "Reliance is placed on there not being suspension of gas production for an unforeseen period." That would be pretty optimistic based on Anguish Energy's track record.

[jtidsbadly] 19/3/2024 10:02

HITS/1347: to be fair, September 2022-September 2023 encompassed the sidetrack, which has been a disaster. And they’re not doing any drilling in the current financial year, so that’s at least £12mm of capex that won’t be repeated or need financing in the current FY. Next year and the year after are a different matter.

The terms of the Trafigura offtake agreement are important. If I were attending next week’s discussion, I’d be asking, first, how much did the sidetrack actually cost and secondly. what are the detailed terms of the offtake agreement?

Any problems now with gas flow (pressure, water, condensate, nitrates etc) are likely to result in more big financings. They’ve more or less said so in the report and accounts. It looks to me, as I’ve said before, as if Anguish will be pedalling hard to go slowly backwards, financed by its loyal shareholders/mugs: or, as Terminator101 refers to them, gerbils.

[headinthesand] 19/3/2024 09:38

3. Profit/(loss) for the financial period


The Company has taken advantage of section 408 of the Companies Act 2006 and, consequently, a profit and loss account for the Company alone has not been presented. The Company's loss for the financial period was approximately £5,475,000 (2022: £2,168,000).

So, ANGS's actual loss for the year was 2.5 times bigger than the last full Financial Year... way to go.

[1347] 19/3/2024 09:38

JT Yes as I've said all along it's just a vehicle for directors and related parties to get their snouts in the trough, salami slicing away to themselves whatever value there is in Poundland.

From an underlying earnings/cash flow perspective it's £28.208 m revenue, less £19.963 m to Mercuria as realised derivatives cost, less £6.923 m in direct costs, less £2.987 m in finance costs, less $2.906 m in admin costs. So at the end of the day there's more going out than there is coming in and that's without any capex.

I agree about the new contracts, the revenue estimates I did based on the old offtake and hedging contracts came in pretty close to the AR but I can't really estimate the future ones as there is no clarity on them. Gas flow is clearly declining, the rest of their assets are a waste of time, I see Lidsey is now Out of The Frame and impaired to the tune of £3.717 m.

Yes they are certainly related parties and, in my view, acting in concert as Kemexon hold shares in Aleph etc. The FCA is like Nelson, except it's using binoculars with the lens cap still on. Like Sunak's goverment a complete waste of time and money.

[jtidsbadly] 19/3/2024 08:59

1347: huge pay increases for the executive directors too. Lord Lucan made a quarter of a million in salary last year. Paul Forrest seems to be taking a very close interest, judging by the number of important Board committees he’s now chairing.

There’s no information on the offtake agreement, nor of any payment due to Shell. This (the new offtake agreement) is possibly the most crucial point. Their downtime at Poundland was 10%. They made this huge underlying loss last year in spite of higher gas prices. Gas flows are currently stuck at about 6mmscfd and the hedge price falls to 35.6p next month, for 6 months.

What a great deal Paul Forrest got. It makes you wonder if there was an undisclosed undertaking at the time of Anguish’s acquisition from him of 51% of Poundland to see him right at a later date, what?

The fact that all the Aleph/Kemexon investors are “related parties” is spelt out. I dare say the FCA is looking the other way.

[bionicdog] 19/3/2024 08:14

ice doing very well with this , UKOG and VAST

[1347] 19/3/2024 07:39

So if you exclude the unrealised derivative profit (which is estimated anyway) they made an actual loss of £19.156 m (on £28.208 m of gross revenue) due to the finance costs of £3.987 m and the realised derivative cost of £19.963 m.

They also had £26.926 m of current liabilities (to be paid by 30th September 2024) and just £5.160 m of current assets of which £2.172 m was cash.

They'll be spun as good results by the ocebot and the intellectually challenged Jayhawkers of course, due to the headline profit figure, but they really aren't.

[iceagefarmer] 19/3/2024 07:25

RNSToday 07:22
A very positive and profitable year and statement indeed.

I am not surprised shorts are closing .

Obviously debt still owed but things are looking very good now .

simonalexsmith

Posts: 77

Price: 0.375

No Opinion

GSA Capital Partners - Short Closed18 Mar 2024 20:45
Sorry if this is repeated guys, now showing as this short is closed, anyone know the date this was amended please?

Thanks and GLA

[1347] 18/3/2024 16:21

JT Well their wording in odd as it doesn't seem to me to be in line with the FCA rules, not that anyone gives them more than lip service. You can try and decipher them here:

[jtidsbadly] 18/3/2024 15:56

1347: well, I’d say Kemexon and the Aleph pop-ups are as much “people with 10% or more” as are the Board members, in any combination. This isn’t a very satisfactory explanation of the infelicity in the wording of this news release from Anguish. Do we know if Carlos is from Barcelona? I smell a rat behind the Chiswick skirting boards, what? I’m going to refer to Chiswick as “Anguish Towers” from now on.

[1347] 18/3/2024 15:03

Yes an understanding of maths. Assuming they are counting FESL as a Director as Paul Forrest is then it's Kemexon 23.68% + FESL 9.07% + 0.22% for 'erbert, Paddy and Carlos, that makes 32.97%. Ok so it's not 32.63% but that's pretty close for Anguish Energy.

The real issue here though in my view is their definition of shares not in public hands as it really ought to include Aleph and their affiliates as they have been named as an Advisor to the company. I would also argue that Knowe should be included as they have more than 5% and are linked to the ex Chairman, JTP, who himself is still linked to the present Financial Director I believe and may still hold shares himself.

[jtidsbadly] 18/3/2024 12:15

JA51: I have never understood this. If people with more than 10% own 32.63% and Kemexon alone owns 23.68%, surely the lowest total owned by people with 10%+ must be 33.68%? Add that to the total here and it’s well over 40%. Am I missing something?

[ja51oiler] 18/3/2024 11:02

Just a reminder as too who holds what at present, before all those new shares are issued.

Shares not in Public Hands

The total percentage of shares not in public hands is 32.63% defined as being beneficial holdings of shares held by shareholders holding above 10% and the directors holdings.

Shareholdings in Angus Energy of greater than 3% are as follows:
Name Percentage of Enlarged Share Capital
Kemexon Ltd 23.68%
Forum Energy Services Limited 9.07%
Knowe Properties 5.84%
Aleph Fin C Limited 3.73%

The above information was accurate as at 13 November 2023 and is based on TR1 notifications received by the Company.

[1347] 14/3/2024 08:05

JT As I've stated before, it would be relatively easy for a combination of the major shareholders to take over Anguish Energy anyway once these latest share issues go through. Aleph in concert with Kemexon (who in my view are concert parties anyway) would have over 30% if they haven't already forward sold the latest fee shares and could table a bid. Or, with FESL and possibly Knowe and a few others below the 3% threshold. they could easily get over 50%, take control then there would be no need to exercise debt covenants etc.

No, the only question is whether they want to, or prefer to just make a quick profit on flipping discounted shares (as Aleph have already been doing) and as FESL did on deferred share consideration. They might struggle to offload them though without a sustained pump and dump/rope a dope (using the storage as bait) so watch out for the ocebot spinning up and a soft ball Malcy interview etc.

Once they have control they can then de-list if they wish, since with Trafigura backing them on the storage costs there would be no need for making further use of the AIM Laundromat. Then they just need to keep the people running Poundland, the rest can be discarded.

We'll just have to wait and see what the last few twists and turns on Snake Pass bring...

[jtidsbadly] 14/3/2024 00:31

1347: if Angus’s major shareholders were to refuse to take up their rights in any new rights issue, what would Angus do for money? I’ve thought to date that the lenders would keep Angus going as long as Angus were able to raise free money in the equity market. If you close that window, Angus is going to run out of money quite quickly - in which event the new lenders may just exercise their covenants and take it over. Mercuria may have decided they don’t want Angus and/or they don’t want such an outcome on their record as a lender to small companies.

[1347] 13/3/2024 14:16

JT Yes the misinformation continues. We discussed at the time the statement was made, that it was obvious they were going to issue lots more shares one way or another, despite what they stated formally in an RNS. No real difference between shares for placings, to settle payday loans, to pay fees or to pay deferred consideration, they all amount to the same thing, printing shares in lieu of cash and result in huge dilution.

The only thing left to establish is whether they intend to flip the shares for a quick profit or use them to take over and wipe out the remaining no-insider shareholders. Judging by the recent share price action it might well be the latter, because the lower it is the more confetti they get, if they were going to flip them then the MMs (one of whom is the Company Broker) would have 'engineered a rise'.

Not many twists and turns left to navigate on Snake Pass I'd say.

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2024 14:03

...and that’s a full set! UKOG has a dilutory RNS out.

[bionicdog] 13/3/2024 13:29

Will they?

[onetomany] 13/3/2024 13:29

Good news nonetheless. The market will react well to the results on Friday.

[jtidsbadly] 13/3/2024 12:34

Fat Frank: I agree with you!!

1347: yes, it’s hard to put a positive construction on this. Surely they would have agreed in advance the text of all the agenda items for approval at the EGM with their debt counterparties? Baffling. Carlos must be distracted by the need to get the accounts out and the need to smooth things over with the auditors re going concern etc. Plus how much they’re going to tell shareholders about the new gas offtake agreement, the fixed price terms, the treatment of the old hedges, etc. Not to mention what they still owe on the sidetrack.

At the very least, as you (and HITS in Kansas) correctly observe, this is a complete, unexplained volte face by the Anguish board from their position of less than a year ago, when they announced a clear policy of avoiding further dilution. Dreadful management. They continue to make it up as they go along as far as shareholders are concerned. Of course, as you have also observed on earlier occasions, today’s RNS is open to the interpretation that it’s another step in the medium term plan to sell the thing off very cheaply to associates.

[1347] 13/3/2024 10:45

Good grief, you're pleased that they can still dump millions more shares at rock bottom prices onto the market in a few days time? This is just insiders making sure they can't dump shares to anyone else.

[stockriser] 13/3/2024 10:42

Well, I'm pleased with that RNS ;-)

GLA SR