1347: yes, you’ve been consistent in this view and I’m persuaded. I’ve wondered why Mercuria left some value in it but they probably didn’t want to be left with the asset. They did pretty well out of it in any case. Yes, it’s just for traders and poor mug punters who can’t or won’t read the Accounts, and fall for misdirection. |
JT As you likely recall I've said for many years now that the company was there just to funnel cash into Directors, Third Parties and other Insiders pockets. There is no investment case for anyone else, just trading opportunities on ramped spikes if you can time them, which is difficult for non-insiders. Yes I've also said I expect a low ball take out at some point, maybe Trafigura will do a debt for equity swap and then de-list Anguish Energy. I think that depends on the storage study though that they were supposed to have done within one year of the MOU in February 2024, but little is said about that now, and nothing about GeoThermal Rainbows. Same old, same old. |
britain faces an eneregy crisis soon ..blackouts coming |
1347: as you’ve doubtless gathered, I’m of your opinion on this. It looks to me as if the current management is running the assets on behalf of the lenders, squeezing all they can out of it until it’s bust and the lenders buy it for buttons. They’ve no money for new wells and won’t have, the new compressor had better not have big teething problems. Yes, those other liabilities are pretty big and the loan amount appears to be increasing. The depletion rate is faster than the CPRs’’ forecasts. The “oil assets” are worthless. Good only for distraction of inattentive mugs.
They’ve made few bones about the hedges. Note 22 is reasonably explicit. People need to read it. And the following Note or two. |
 JT The revenue on Poundland is very close to what I calculated so no surprises there for me. I see no way that they can improve on that in FY 2025, the first 6 months are already down and the compressor won't be up and running in H1 2025, only for part of H2 2025. The Hokey-Cokey assets are dead ducks, I'm not sure they'll actually test Balcombe even if the daft High Court allows it to go ahead.
The biggest issue here are the current liabilities, which stand at £8.315 m trade payables of which £2.887 m is deferred consideration, £3.282 m loan principal due this year and £10.702 m derivative liability. Not sure how they will cover these. Will they need to write some more hedges to cover the derivatives liability? They also wouldn’t be able to cover the Provisions if they needed to P&A any of the Hokey-Cokey assets.
There was a net cash outflow of -£9,000 in FY 2024 and they had just £2.163 m in cash at the end. FY 2025 cash flow can’t be any better without a placing so they’ll have insufficient funds for any Capex even if they could cover the short term liabilities.
Yes the volumes and prices of the Hedges has changed yet again from last year although, as we discussed at the time, we could never understand some of the prices shown in last years's Annual Report. However they're getting just 39.00 p at the moment on the hedged volumes which drops to just 29,25 p next month for 3 months. That won't help will it.
Yes Royalty will have to be in ShareCoin I expect, possibly the deferred consideration also. I still don't understand why there is no mention of the Energy Profits Levy at all? |
I’ve had a fuller look at these accounts. Note 22 is worth a read. It’s all a pretty woeful story. They must be extremely worried about the recent gas depletion rate in the context of their remaining open hedge positions. The new compressor can be viewed as a desperate but vital attempt to avoid a highly possible descent into insolvency. Brockham has not helped either, has it? A distraction, as predicted. And Mr. Forrest got a really good deal. Also as discussed. |
1347: yes, investors in this are betting on some big improvements from the new compressor and at least one new well, which they can’t afford to drill. And they’re betting that the rate of decline in gas production will at least slow down and that the new compressor will prove easier to incorporate than the existing ones were. Mr. Forrest and the royalty holders will he paid in shares so expect a constant strain on the share price. How is the Government going to be able to afford its hydrogen ambitions with all that’s going on? Not FOMO, what? FOBIA. Fear of being in Anguish. Innit? |
If that's a strong financial performance I'd hate to see what a weak one would be like. Revenue down, costs up is not a good basis for growth. |
Dear oh dear. |
Angus Energy Reports Strong Financials and Strategic Growth Plans
Angus Energy has announced its audited annual accounts for the year ending 30 September 2024, reporting strong revenues of £21.802 million and an EBITDA of £10.803 million. The company has focused on maximizing revenue, refinancing debt, and improving operational efficiency. A £20m loan facility from Trafigura PTE Ltd allowed Angus to exit expensive debt and invest in boosting gas production at the Saltfleetby Field and restarting oil production at Brockham. The company is also exploring opportunities for hydrogen storage and carbon capture, aligning with government energy security priorities. With legacy hedges ending in June 2025, Angus anticipates increased cash flows and plans to expand production through additional drilling. |
No drop, no sellers available Looking forward now... compressor and hedge removal will be huge 3rd largest gas storage including offshore is absolutely mental, especially when it's already been built to cope by Gazprom |
Stock faller - Madame Karma's arrival...
JT Only had a quick look myself and won't spend much time on this crock, but I note they still have deferred payments due on the late production from Poundland. They did say they'd paid most of them off when they did the placing in December 2022, then led us to believe they'd paid them off the year later. They don't have the funds for the one year plus delayed drill at Poundland, or anything else significant, that's crystal clear. |
The old psychology eh , that'll stop 'em posting facts. |
1347 - you're obviously well informed re: the Co.
What exactly are you loooking forward to, to spend so much time researching Angus?
GL SR |
On a cursory look, gas sales appear to be down 25% or so vs. the previous year. They’ve got about the same amount of cash as at the last balance sheet date, though these are several months in arrears. There’s a lot of defensive explanation of the effect of the derivatives in the event of an interruption to gas production. They’ll likely be paying in shares for everything they can. How will they pay for another well at the end of the year? It’s very vulnerable to a lot of imponderables, isn’t it? More downside, I should think - unless someone wants to bid for Poundland on the basis of storage potential. |
Do you mean look forward to the declining gas flows from Poundland? Or look foreard to the further delays to drill the well they promised for January 2025? Or look forward to further delays to the design of the storage project? Or look forward to the declining volumes from Brockham? Or look forward to the increasing water cut from Brockham? Or look forward to the High Court decision to block Balcombe? Or look forward to the refusal of planning permission to transport water from Lidsey to Brockham. Please be more specific! |
T101 - Markets look forward not back m8 ;-)
GL SR |
Morning gerbils. £4.5 million loss huh. Don't worry it's only money. |
Quite. Shockin’, what? Better suited to the demi-monde of the male model. Hang on a minute. |
Indeed it does, and one of its most famous Universities, what, what? |
1347: mention of Will in this context merely exposes again the stain on the educational reputation of our most famous public school. |
But he's just a TV Detective, whereas Will was a renowed literary scholar. Still each to their own I suppose. |
Well, it’s the spelling in the Wycliffe and the Authorised versions. That’s why I prefer it. |
Either will do but plough is the preferred spelling in the main varieties of English from outside of North America so I stick to the English version rather than any butchered colonial version. |
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