PS JT. If you go back to the Annual Report to 30th Sepember 2022 you will see they also wrote extra hedges at 438.0 p and 315.0 p, again if they were the prices that Anguish Energy got they would have been higher than the market prices over the periods to which they relate, apart from when, for a fairly short time the gas price spiked over 600p. |
1347: I can see that this looks like a correction but it’s not mentioned as such, is it? I can’t see why Mercuria would have accepted these terms, unless they represent part of a deal they’ve incorporated them in an deal elsewhere. I have no idea what the truth is. The price protection element makes no sense to me. Nor to the Chairman - even with benefit of crib sheets. Nor to the Executive Trappist ‘Erbert apparently. |
JT Yes I noticed that but took them to be typos with the . in the wrong place and they should have been 122.6, 137.0 and 107.0 You know how sloppy their work is. It was the same with the typo in the existing hedge: 1-Apr-25 30-Jun-25 1,930,000 0.3525, which should have been 35.25p, in line with the prices in the CPR.
Anyway, if you look at the last Interim Accounts (11. DERIVATIVES LIABILITY) you will see that they show them as follows:
*new hedges to price protect the Mercuria hedges crystallized in July 2023
Crystallised hedges at fixed price as below:
1-Jul-24 30-Sep-24 1,840,000 122.60
1-Oct-24 31-Mar-25 3,640,000 137.00
1-Apr-25 31-Jun-25 1,820,000 107.00
Which for me confirms that those in the AR were typos and so, if they were cash swaps as before, the above prices are what Anguish Energy would get and Mercuria would get the market price, which is less, at least in July to September (~90p) and so far into October 2024 (~95p). |
1347: re the crystallised hedges, the decimal point in the 2023 Accounts comes after the 1. 1.226, not 1226. I find all these statements re the new hedges confusing but it seems to me that as reported in the note (is it 24?) this agreement gives Mercuria a large guaranteed payment. |
1347: the Mercuria hedges were at 35-45p per therm from April 2024 to June 2025, so the lenders were/are making money on those at Angus’s expense. I find Angus’s recent references to the new hedges, “dynamic price protection”, etc. unintelligible. Oddly, their expert Chairman doesn’t seem to have a clue about any aspect of them, in spite of appearing to read from crib sheets on the topic throughout interviews. What expertise the Executive Trappist has is only to be guessed at. At least it appears they may not be spending more borrowed money on further wells and that is a relief. It appears to be a utility company with a limited life, a rapidly depleting asset and no chance of a dividend. |
How to make £10 k in Anguish Energy, it's easy, start with £50 k... |
You do need patience for your "investments" to fall to absolute zero. |
Great news for you Frank. You must be minted! |
 "The company submitted a planning application in July 2024 for the Saltfleetby field near Louth in Lincolnshire.
But the county council and Angus Energy confirmed today that the application had been withdrawn.
The council also confirmed that Angus had withdrawn a formal request to council planners for advice on what it should address in an environmental impact assessment (EIA).
The advice, known as a scoping opinion, sets out key issues that the company should include in an environmental statement – the outcome of an EIA that accompanies bigger planning application.
The application documents did not include an environmental statement, nor any discussion about whether an EIA was needed.
But Angus Energy hinted earlier this year, in an interview with DrillOrDrop, that the application might need to assess carbon emissions at Saltfleetby in an EIA.
This followed a landmark judgement on climate emissions by the Supreme Court. The court ruled that EIAs for hydrocarbon sites should account for greenhouse gases from the burning of oil and gas, known as indirect, downstream or scope 3 emissions.Angus Energy’s chief executive, Richard Herbert, told us [Drillordrop] in the interview:
“We have a planning application which has just been submitted to drill additional wells at the Saltfleetby gas field and that approval process could be affected by this. At this stage, we remain optimistic that we will get the right outcome and if this involves more work to be clear about the impact of what we’re trying to do then so be it. We can live with that.”
DrillOrDrop asked Angus Energy today why it had withdrawn the application. A company spokesperson said the application was being reformatted “with an intention to resubmit shortly”.
Nothing to see here, move along please....... |
Oh dear, funny how 'erbert never mentioned this in the recent update. |
 JT Maybe it's just me but I still don't get those hedges that were shown in the last Annual Report as crystallised hedges at fixed price and where those fixed prices were above the market price. If they were cash swaps, as before, it meant Mercuria (or Trafigura if novated) would lose out on them.
Then to complicate things even more they then showed different prices and struck *new hedges to price protect the Mercuria hedges crystallized in July 2023 as in the more recent interim report. This despite Lucan stating that they'd been largely settled from the placing.
They've now struck yet more hedges due to the previously crystallised hedges but again don't say what kind of hedges they are, if you don't know what kind of hedges they are then you can't figure out the financial impact. That's probably intentional on their part.
By my calculations the gas has dropped by 22% over the last year which means that unless that compressor makes a difference they'll be under 5 MMSCF/d sometime next year. Yes same old on the drills, just like the GeoThermal ones, all of a sudden it all goes quiet and they hope everyone has a short term memory and forgets it all.
Yes nice little earner for the Lenders, Offtakers, Hedgers, Forrest and other insiders but no investment case here for others that's for sure. Well unless storage proves to be a money spinner, but that's years down the line. |
1347: yes, I agree about the absence of any mention of another drilling effort. Probably a good thing, though the earlier one was fun.
Re the hedges, it seems to me that investors in a small gas producer would prefer to keep the upside of big rises in the gas price, not a large and constantly growing proportion hedged. They’ve turned this into a utility company, but the asset is depleting at quite a pace. The lenders are the only people who will benefit.
We haven’t been told the details of the dynamic hedges, have we? More bs, I suspect. |
Extra hedges on top of extra hedges. They don’t state what kind of hedges they are, simple puts or swaps with the other leg at market price? Production continues to decline and I note yet again that is now no mention whatsoever of the drills that were planned for 1Q 2025 as they stated in their interim report of 28 June 2024. First one supposed to be in production in three months.
"Saltfleetby. Plan two further wells in the main Westphalian reservoir F9 and SF10, which are scheduled to enter production in January 2025 and January 2026 respectively." |
This is going well. |
I suggest investors give Herbie 53 a little time. He is straight forward. |
JT I doubt Anguish Energy will be buying anything much with cash, it will be in ShareCoin. In any case I still expect a low ball take out/merger, regardless of how it's dressed up by them and spun by the ocebot. No mention of drills, no mention of GeoThermal, new rainbow required. Most of these AIM companies are little more than scams to pay Directors salaries. |
1347: yes, he seems to be more interested in new ventures outside the UK, what? In which event, he’s hardly likely to want to pay in cash. Do I sense a p&d coming? |
I notice it's all gone a bit quiet on that drill in 1Q 2025, slipped off the radar has it? Same old, same old... |
Richard Herbert interview. |
So no issues to explain the share price collapse and all going as planned with the production. Surprised there have been no TR1 notifications. Ah the fun of AIM! |
Few notes from the interview:https://drillordrop.com/transcript-of-interview-with-richard-herbert-chief-executive-angus-energy/August/september:Upon completion of the seismic remapping exercise described above, Angus will progress with the development of a reservoir model (static and dynamic) which is anticipated to be completed Q3 2024 and will be utilised to fine tune the detailed design and anticipated results of future drilling targets and gas storage potentialOctober/november:It's a new unit being constructed in the US and delivered to the site in November of this year. And once we put that on, that will help to deal with this problem because we'll be able to pull harder on the wells as a result of this additional compressor, which means that this liquid loading issue we had will be diminished.December-June:Removal of hedge, new wells, decision on gas storageDrop anytime:Angus Energy said recently that it has new areas of interest. What are they?In terms of new ventures, we can't be too specific for commercial sensitivity. We can't talk about specific things that we are currently looking at. We have formed a world-class team that is now reviewing onshore assets in UK, North America and North Africa.?Saltfleetby is the only significant gas site onshore in the UK so it is definitely worth looking at.We should have a lot more information on this soon.I believe we should take a serious look at carbon capture at this site.This government has both committed to net zero emissions and at the same time acknowledged the role of gas in the foreseeable future.Onshore sites will have to be an essential part of the new strategy. |
The top five highest-ranked sites for UHS based on the evaluated criteria are the Cygnus, Hamilton, Saltfleetby, Corvette, and Hatfield Moors gas fieldsThe top five highest ranked sites based on the criteria evaluated are the Cygnus, Hamilton, Saltfleetby, Corvette, and Hatfield Moors fields.The reservoir rock quality among the top-ranked sites is generally high, with almost all sites except Saltfleetby and Topaz exhibiting favourable characteristics.illustrates the ultimate ranking of the sites, highlighting the top five candidates for UHS opportunities which are the Cygnus, Hamilton, Saltfleetby, Corvette, and Hatfield Moors gas fields.the top five sites regarding proximity to potential hydrogen clusters are Saltfleetby, Hatfield Moors, Hatfield West, Hamilton, and Hewett.https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319923056057ANGS rated the top site for hydrogen/gas storage in the uk by geologists ?Highest chance of a hydrogen cluster too ?? |
takeover rumour?? |
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