Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[illiswilgig] 26/2/2021 08:44

....or the start of supply is backdated on signature? Sorry not following the the figures in detail so just a thought?

cheers

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/2/2021 08:08

#Swanvesta, thanks, proof that a phone call can cause a distraction and accident, not only while driving.. :o), I was waiting for someone else to have a go at getting to grips with valuing the deal too.., but yes I agree the below..

2021 | 800/APF 181 tonnes | USD 7.5M income
2022-2024 | 1800/APF408 tonnes | USD 16.8M per year
2025-2033 | 2600/APF590 tonnes | USD 24.3M per year
Until the 1st 7,600 tonnes cap are delivered

The accumulated income at 50,000 Cobalt over the 1st 10 years would be cUSD203M or equal to the stream cost price (10% average return on capital pa), IRR has been quoted at 7-12% pending prices.., the stream price of 300M is reached in year 13..?

7,600 tonne cap achieved early year 15 where income reduces 50% ..
USD312M total stream value at 50,000 Cobalt, so a baseline 50% profit margin over cost at current prices with the upside coming from Cobalt if/when that rises.., any uptick payment take care of themselves when/if Cobalt goes over USD25/lb..

I am stuck (so far) on how year 1 can result in JTs expected 15/16M income pro rata for 9 months, unless the projected 800 tonnes production is way short of actual production, and we are really getting the 12 month supply delivered in 9 months ..?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/2/2021 14:37

#Sporazene2, I used the 800 Cobalt tonnes guided for 2021, so currently I am unsure how JT got to the 15/16M income for this year for 9 months of the stream, but perhaps 800 is conservative worst case, and 50,000 is light too.. :o)

The uptick payments kick in from USD25/lb (55,000 per tonne Cobalt)
JT expects USD15/16M VB income for the balance of 2021 pending Cobalt prices

2020 portfolio income GBP36M +/-1M
Est 2021 portfolio income now 55-60M + new VB11M total GBP66-71M,,
Share capital now up 20%, but EPS up by the best part of 100%.. :o)

[donaferentes] 25/2/2021 14:35

Odd to see two sales of 80,000 each go through just now at the placing price of 128p - finger trouble, or what - all other sales are at 138p. Wish they'd let me know - happy to split the difference!

[sporazene2] 25/2/2021 14:34

LLB - looks very strong even at the 50K per tonne price. Given the supply/demand imbalance graph that is contained within the presentation it's reasonable to conclude based on those assumptions that the Cobalt price should keep going higher.

In your numbers the 2021 contribution is quite a bit below the number called out in the presentation, is this just that you've used a lower Cobalt price assumption?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/2/2021 14:27

Another look at trying to value the Voiseys Bay stream.. :o)

APF entitled to 22.82% of total cobalt produced with a step down to 11.41% after 7,600 tonnes delivery is reached.., initial 18% payment or 82% smelter return from sales until USD300M has been recovered, then 22%/78% return..

USD 50,000 per tonne reference price for income estimates

2021 estimated output 800 tonnes
2022-2024 underground ramp up to 1800 tonnes
2025-2033 estimate 2600 tonnes

2021 | 800 tonnes | USD9M
2022-2024 | 1800 tonnes | USD20.5M per year
2025-2033 | 2600 tonnes | USD 30M per year until the 1st 7,600 tonnes cap are delivered.

Mid [edit] 15th year would see 7,600 tonnes delivered / USD300M recovered then the step down to 50% income for the balance of the 13 year LOM + extension deposits found..

So from year 06 out income would be USD1.5M a month / 18M per year for LOM.

Total value of the stream could be in the order of [edit] USD312M income + any uplift in the Cobalt price..
Total cost 205M + 27M uptick payments = 232M
Minimum return of c110M and 50% profit at 50,000 Cobalt

[the deacon] 25/2/2021 14:11

Yes that seems to be the plan. Good to be able to put some value against the equity position in BRN

[hernando2] 25/2/2021 14:01

It's not often that a company raises cash by issuing 20% of the existing share capital, adds it to additional borrowings to do a deal, and the share price basically stays the same.

Good enough for me.

[donaferentes] 25/2/2021 13:54

I like the mention of a further $50m deal in the near/id pipeline, pretty much internally financed (disposal of more coking coal and bank borrowing)without further share dilution.

The team are the antithesis of fast talking salesmen (Definition of a mine: a hole in the ground with a liar at the top!)- very sober and careful in their planning and presentation.

Really interesting time to be getting engaged with this company.

[sporazene2] 25/2/2021 13:51

Deacon - re the Brazilian Nickel interview. Given they have engaged Blytheweigh, I would assume they will be looking to IPO in the future, perhaps as part of the funding required beyond the BFS.

[the deacon] 25/2/2021 13:02

Replay of the acquisition webcast https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/602ec5f61fc46330548fabb0

[the deacon] 25/2/2021 11:51

Really interesting interview with the Brazilian Nickel team. Looks like APF did very well getting their foot in the door of this one. Talk of early production as well as potentially having industry leading low carbon footprint operations. https://youtu.be/mxn7xk1jZcM

[johnrxx99] 25/2/2021 09:26

Who said 128p ?

[tommygriff] 25/2/2021 08:14

Bought what I wanted in the market yesterday at 1.30 hopefully it can push on from here!Undervalued low risk mine financing company

[donaferentes] 25/2/2021 08:11

Did just that. Got what I wanted in full this morning at 1.32, not so bad.

[rimau1] 25/2/2021 07:33

The point of the primarybid offering was to avoid existing holders getting diluted, we only got 66% of our ask! This will dip over the coming days with the extra shares and at some point commodity prices will have a down day so just set a limit buy at whatever you are prepared to pay, i have one set at £1.29
I also hold BCN and waited until after the prinarybid process and i picked up stock a week later at 40p vs a 45p placing price.

[johnrxx99] 25/2/2021 02:32

Feb 25
Price target raised to UK£2.14
Up from UK£1.86, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. The new target price is 53% above the current share price of UK£1.40. As of last close, the stock is up 1.1% over the past year.

Simply Wall Street

[sammu] 25/2/2021 00:48

Thanks swanvesta - yes that is weird.
I got 66% of what I asked for.

[goodgrief] 24/2/2021 23:24

Think I'd of bought a couple of shares in the market, then done the PrimaryBid offer. Or simply fibbed about being a shareholder. No way did they have time to check with my broker!

[swanvesta] 24/2/2021 23:11

Thanks meanreverter. I'm autistic and easily confused :-)

[donaferentes] 24/2/2021 23:04

If I'd have known existing owners would be favoured, I'd have certainly bought some in the market. I think it would be fair to mention this parameter in advance.

[meanreverter] 24/2/2021 22:30

Independent analysis of APF:

[deadly] 24/2/2021 20:37

I got scaled back to 66% of request. Not bad at all.

[pockstones] 24/2/2021 20:37

Well well well guess old Que was trying to tell us all something back on February 8th battery materials up 250 percent and all that he was on the money
Bring back Que I say