Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[haydock] 12/9/2012 12:55

This seems to be such good news i have borrowed this from Piedro.
With appropriate thanks.

Piedro
12 Sep'12 - 10:31 - 536 of 536


so that's how it's to be calculated.

Thus, as an example
A company producing 3.0mt coal @ $200/tonne

Previously paid
3.0 x 200 x 7% = $42.0m

From October will pay
3.0 x 200 x 10.375% = $62.25m

... a rise of 48.2% in the royalty/tax

Excellent for APF

[sammu] 11/9/2012 22:58

Yes this is good news - except the miners are screaming loudly about closing down marginal mines. Last time they raised the rate coal prices were quite healthy as I recall. This time they have just slumped.

Noted that the change only impacts over $100, so impacting on Met. but not on thermal at the moment.
Hopefully Rio's margin is still fat enough for them to want to continue mining at current prices.

[haydock] 11/9/2012 16:17

No problem, i remember, we were similarly very puzzled the first time it happened.
When we worked it all out we were pleasantly suprised, the only time in my life i have been glad to see taxes rising .

[gengulphus] 11/9/2012 15:50

haydock,

Thanks - and having now seen the official announcement courtesy of Piedro on his board, I agree that it's royalties, not taxes. The MineWeb article is definitely confusingly worded in places!

Gengulphus

[christh] 11/9/2012 14:33

Will it go beyond 300p?
Well so far all the news indicate a bullish run.
Perhaps it will head towards 340-350p and re-enter FTSE 350.
The royalty rise is very good news as the divi will increase making the yield
at a 3.8to 3.9% per annum.

[haydock] 11/9/2012 14:11

Rates; how they are determined:
Piedro on his Highway to the future site, shows the new top rate as 15%


As a result, the Company, by retaining an interest in the sub-surface mining and mineral rights of such land, is entitled to certain royalties payable on the coal mined from this land pursuant to the Queensland Mineral Resources Act 1989. The Company is not entitled to a royalty on coal mined from land that does not meet the criteria specified in such Act, or from Crown areas.

The royalty rate to which the Company is presently entitled is prescribed by the Queensland Mineral Resources Act Regulations. These regulations currently stipulate that the basis of calculation is a two-tiered fixed percentage of the invoiced value of the coal, without deduction for any costs pertaining to rail and road freight or any other costs incurred in relation to the sale or disposal of the coal other than port and related charges. The regulations provide that currently a 7% rate applies to the value of coal produced by a mine sold below A$100 per tonne and a higher 10% rate applies to the value of coal sold above A$100 per tonne.

[haydock] 11/9/2012 13:44

I can see where you are coming from, but it is the royalty that is going up, not a tax on it.
The previous rate was raised to 10% when it turned out that this was legally also the case for APF. Both rose under the conditions of price raised, above a high level.

The hike in royalty rates drew a predictable response from the mining industry.

The rate is up, not a tax on the rate.

[gengulphus] 11/9/2012 12:37

The article talks about taxes being raised and says the rate on coal royalties is being increased to 12.5%. On the face of it, that means that a higher proportion of the royalties is being taxed away, not that the rate at which they are being earned is increasing - to be the latter, it would have to talk about the rate of coal royalties...

Should emphasise that I only know what I've read in the article about this, and so have nothing to judge the accuracy of the article by. I.e. I'm only commenting on what the article actually says, not on whether it's true!

Gengulphus

[haydock] 11/9/2012 12:01

With thanks to Piedro, for spotting this.




This is actually great news?
Last time it was raised to 10%, it was also an automatic rise for APF to the same figure? I think that is what happened.

We have just had a royalty rise of some significance?

Correct me please, if i am wrong.

[christh] 08/9/2012 07:03

It seems will test 300p again.
Most likely the company will offer a script divi.
Looking forwar to it.

The divi will be around 11p-11.5p this year and also the growth looks to be 30% to 36%.
Whether it will enter the FTSE250 depends on the markets conditions.


DYOR

[nielsc] 06/9/2012 14:40

Looking at the Laramide agreement it could yield quite a royalty payout.




URI's total Churchrock Resource (historic non-NI 43-101 compliant resource):
Churchrock: 7.8 million tons @ 0.12% U3O8 = 18.6 million lbs U3O8

Mancos: 5.2 million tons @ 0.11% U3O8 = 11.3 million lbs U3O8


So in total almost 30 million lbs uranium.

At $50 a lb would be worth $1.5b and if APF pay $15m for a 5% gross royalty that would
bring in $75m over the lifetime of the royalty.
I believe Uranium prices will go higher so this number is likely to be higher also.

Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 06/9/2012 08:47

QuePassa,

Have to agree with you on that. This share is in no way easy to understand.

I don't really do that much posting and it is more of a general nature than in depth company specifics. Glad you consider my posts useful though.

I think APF have got a good future ahead. I see they are positioning themselves in uranium nicely. This should be a nice money spinner over the next decade or so. I believe the Russians are to cease blending down their weapons grade uranium in 2013. So I would guess that uranium prices should rise nicely in conjunction with that and the increasing demand from Asia.

Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 05/9/2012 15:31

I do consider myself a long-term holder........

The share is a real curate's egg. Difficult to understand and to value. That's what makes it so volatile. What supports the share price is that the company continues to spin off cash and dividends like sparks from a Catherine Wheel on Guy Fawkes night. That is its real attraction.

It surprises me somewhat that you say you do not pay much attention to APF! You are, along with christh and pentagavin, one of the most regular and stalwart ( and good!) posters on this bb.

May the Company and the share prosper for each and every one of us in their own way.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[nielsc] 05/9/2012 15:15

QuePassa,

Looks like you have a methodology that has suited you quite well. I personally am a buy and hold investor who will top up on the dips.
One risk of selling and rebuying is you could potentially miss a takeover bid. Has happened a few times to me now which has been nice. Also helps me realise a profit when your shares are bought in a successful takeover.

What happens though if APF doesn't come back down to a price you are prepared to buy it at and the price runs away. Will you buy higher? I can see you believe in the long term future of APF, but you can't really say you are a long term holder if you aren't holding any currently ;-)

APF are a bottom of the drawer share for me. Not one I really pay much attention to. Nice picking up the dividend and using it to reinvest in more APF when the price looks low.

Cheers,
Niels

[tigmi] 05/9/2012 14:55

QP, well done that is very impressive. I wish I was a diligent and had the balls to trade like that.

Tiggers

[nielsc] 05/9/2012 14:24

QuePassa,

You are being a bit too short term viewing this information. These are both executive members of the Board and no doubt see the long term potential of APF.

Chris Orchard already owned 40000 shares before he was appointed to the Board as executive director on the 22nd June 2009. I am guessing that he probably acquired those share at a sub £1 price.

Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 05/9/2012 13:18

Recent rally looking like it is fizzling out rapidly.

On the info above, Chris Orchard looks like he is sitting on a £40,000 loss and John Theobald on a £45,000 loss over just five months based on their March purchases at 332p.

That's not good, is it!

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[christh] 03/9/2012 18:40

Last Close Price Day Range
233.75p 235.00 - 242.44

Mkt Cap.........................................256.202

52-Wk Range ......................................220.00 - 345.00

Yield %
3.78

(End of Section)(Start of Section)
ISIN ....................................... Volume......... P/E ...........................P/S...........................P/CF
GB0006449366 ..................57,943................. 14.61 ....................7.38............................14.35

ICB Sector
Mining

ICB Sector Profile
33 of 176 Companies

Market Position
454 of 2023 Companies

Index
FTSE Small Cap, FTSE All Share

Next Event.
Next Q3 announcement 31/10/2012

Director Dealings......Traded Action...............Notifier.....................Price............ Amount............Value
14/08/2012..................... Purchase..................Anthony Yadgaroff......246.00.........3,280.........£8,069.00
28/03/2012..................... Purchase...............Chris Orchard..................332.00............44,804......£148,749.00
28/03/2012.....................Purchase...............John Theobald ...............332.00.........50,075......... £166,249.00
01/03/2012.....................Sale........................Peter Boycott.................. 332.00...............15,000.........£49,800.00

[lovegod] 02/9/2012 18:09

the rothschilds are into this market too with bumi plc so thigs look good to me..

[christh] 01/9/2012 17:42

hvs 1 Sep'12 - 12:45 - 5889 of 5890

he has no clue!
France and most of the west are looking for cheap electricity so they have invested heavily into nuclear energy to meet the high demand of electricity.
The UK and the US are developing new power stations using uranium and its substites.
The nuclear submarines how will they operate?

Coal demand in China and India to run the power stations, steel furnaces
will never stop.
This company has no debts and have over £20 million cash in the bank.

New royalties are coming to force this quarter.
Peeling & Co recommended those as a BUY when they were at 299p but now at the current levels is oversold.
Only a week ago one of the directors has bought a chunk of shares.

[monty panesar] 01/9/2012 14:59

Of all the commodities the outlook for Uranium is incredibly bullish but dyor etc etc

[hvs] 01/9/2012 12:45

Stay well clear looks like sub 200p.

Who needs COAL ???? or Uranium ????

[gengulphus] 01/9/2012 12:19

QP,

These swings which I refer to in my earlier post and previous ones are not generalised across the market at this phase in the stock-market cycle.

Agreed - my main point (which I probably didn't express all that well!) was not that they are generalised across the market, but that they are nothing new for this stock. Nor indeed for many others - if I look at a selection of share price charts, I find that quite rapid 10%ish swings up and down are a reasonably common feature when the share price isn't trending strongly in one direction or the other. I think Niels probably has the reason right when he talks about investors being twitchy...

Gengulphus

[quepassa] 31/8/2012 16:25

Thanks for answers.

These swings which I refer to in my earlier post and previous ones are not generalised across the market at this phase in the stock-market cycle.

The Vix Volatility index is now at comparative lows compared to a year ago



But apf continues to swing a lot more than the current mkt norm in my view.

Niels, yes you are probably right about apf being moved by risk-on/risk-off.

Apf is a twitchy stock, subject perhaps exageratedly to sentiment and sectoral news.

For everyone's info, I do indeed consider that I am a long-term holder of APF, however that does not preclude the concept of me taking occasional well-timed "holidays" from holding the stock.

Thanks again.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP