Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[haydock] 03/4/2012 15:01

Its on the Wiki link.

[strollingmolby] 03/4/2012 13:22

undervaluedassets - its on Piedro's APY thread.

[undervaluedassets] 03/4/2012 13:04

There used to be a list of the small cap mining stocks that APF held on this board.

Anyone know where they can be found?

Anyone any thoughts bout this sudden weakness?

[shavian] 03/4/2012 11:47

many will consider 300p a silly price for APF long term. Tomorrow or Thursday should be good opps

[nielsc] 03/4/2012 09:55

A top up of APF for me at 302.29p. A 3%+ yield. 14 RSI is very low so hopefully the share price might turn upwards soon.

Cheers,
Niels

[stevenlondon3] 02/4/2012 12:28

Hasn't it been relatively strong against the likes of BHP, Rio and Blackrock mining over the last month?

[haydock] 02/4/2012 10:48

C. gains Tax.
New year on Friday.

[alanrussell] 02/4/2012 10:26

Bit of a slide this last week or two. Any reason or just the usual ups and downs of the market?

[piedro] 30/3/2012 15:12

... content with the 34%
... a bit risky some of those holdings

[haydock] 30/3/2012 14:15

Cheers Piedro.
I always said we should have bid for the lot, when we had the chance.

[haydock] 30/3/2012 12:19

c9426c57-6af1-4147-be9e-660156c71420-RCO370560

[haydock] 30/3/2012 12:12

Comment in Aus re: Royalco.

The half year accounts read like a dream:

Revenue of $5.570 million, recorded profit of $3.433 million, $15 million in cash, total assets of $23 million and a market cap of $27.4 million.

New projects that will generate further royalty revenue also moving forward and progressing towards production with respectable and experinced partners involved.

Now thats a business!

No wonder Anglo Pacific have increased their stake to 34.16%.

IMO, this is the most undercover stock on the ASX.

[tigmi] 26/3/2012 17:50

a nice rise at the end of the day...I do hope APF is valued properly soon.

[haydock] 23/3/2012 17:46

Niels;
We are all suffering with the small miners at the moment; bad news is a disaster, good news is profit taking, CG time i suppose.

It will change round in the next 6 months,as you know, it's bottom drawer time & buy some more APF.& look for the quality companies that are bombed out.

[nielsc] 23/3/2012 11:47

haydock,

SHG has retraced from 40p to almost 20p yesterday. Recovering a bit today at around 24p. Volatile!
I should have some dividend money appearing soon from MML. I think I'll be adding to my APF holding.

Cheers,
Niels

[haydock] 23/3/2012 11:35

Cheers Niel,
That would be good news for you on Shanta, i remember APF had shares in the company for a while & tried for the royalty, then sold up?
Chip also rates Shanta, i never went in, as there was some lease arrangemnt, or maybe it was the part of Africa that spooked me at the time.

Apart from the Telegraph Questor , I/c& Minesite, nobody in my time has attempted to spend long looking at the percieved complexities of APF.There is always easier meat.
Dear old E. Jacksons article is now 6 years old.

Although after they joined the TSX there was a really good item by a CDN. house on Royalty companies & which were the best value.
Now that was a piece of research, but then they know about them over there.

Puzzles me that nobody else has followed the model in the U.K as APF has been so successful.

Chip said the other day:
12 year CAGR is 28.8%! That's a double every 2.5 years.

[nielsc] 23/3/2012 11:10

I posted this on the SHG bb. Could be APF in line for another royalty perhaps.

22nd Mar
"Secondly, Shanta Gold are in advanced discussions with a London based group for
a $20 million cash injection, supported by a mixture of a royalty and off take
agreement, to bridge the funding gap as a result of the delay in mine production "

This could very easily be APF who SHG turned down over a year ago.



APF drive a hard bargain. It impacts future profitability entering into a royalty agreement, but doesn't add to the debt pile.
I have shares in APF so if they are the ones offering the royalty package then I am covered either way.


Cheers,
Niels

[stevenlondon3] 23/3/2012 10:47

Now that Anglo sits more comfortably in FTSe 250 (think it ranks 348 in the 350) it will receive more coverage.

[haydock] 23/3/2012 08:36

Nobody ever seems to put anything on the web about any analysts ever having even a sniff at APF.
The fig is in the range of £375/£400m & is to be found in last weeks results on the web page ?

[stevenlondon3] 22/3/2012 10:33

Haydock. I read you above comment with interest. Do you know the range of analysts' estimates for the current NAV of Anglo? Cheers.

[haydock] 20/3/2012 10:53

Minesite update, very carefully considered piece.
I have always thought of APF as almost an investment trust & as such I have always been delighted with the divi & the discount.
Investment trusts have always been my point of comparison rather than miners.

March 20, 2012

Anglo Pacific Now Has Four Producing Royalties And Sixteen On Projects In Development

By Alastair Ford


Since Anglo Pacific decided to turn itself into a royalty company back in 2007 its shares have followed the movements of the FTSE 350 mining index fairly faithfully, underperforming slightly in the run-up to the crash of 2008, and outperforming by a slightly wider margin once the recovery got underway in the later part of 2009. Nothing unusual in that, you might think. But think again. Anglo Pacific isn't a miner.



Coal stack at the Kestrel mine

It has a portfolio of assets valued at just over £380 million as at 31st December 2011the last count, consisting predominantly of royalties, but also including an investment portfolio worth around £65 million marked to market. The only assets directly under Anglo Pacific's control are some coal properties in British Columbia, and the company is still working out what it wants to do with those as the Canadian field season begins to draw near again.



So should the company really be correlated to the miners? It isn't even, strictly, a mining investment house these days. John Theobald, the company's chief executive, is quite emphatic on that point. "We're not in the equity business, we're in the royalty business", he says. "In 2007 the company changed from an investment company into a royalty company." And considering what happened to equities just a year later, that decision now looks remarkably prescient.



But then Anglo Pacific has always been known for the canny choices it's made. Back when John Theobald first worked for the company it was in the midst of disposing of its operating assets. He helped that process along before leaving to pursue other opportunities, including some happy years spent at the Belgian industrial minerals group Sibelco. In the intervening period between then and his rejoining the company in 2008, Anglo Pacific forged a new identity in London as an investment company with a strong royalty focus, supported in particular by two royalties on substantial coal projects in Australia.



For much of the last decade the company was known for the strong influence of the accountants on its board and in the way they influenced its investment decisions. Key to the strategy was a rigorous appreciation of the financial numbers, and a preference for safe jurisdictions. But now that Anglo Pacific has grown into a £370 million company, it's able to bring additional skill sets to the decision-making process. John Theobald is himself a chartered engineer with a geology degree, while chief investment officer Chris Orchard has a degree in mining from the University of Leeds. The shift in focus to royalties occurred shortly before either John or Chris was appointed, but the focus on safe jurisdictions remains firmly intact, even if the definition is a little looser these days.



John, who's an old Africa hand, says that he'd consider acquiring some royalties in certain well-chosen African countries if the project was right, and the company has already acquired an iron sands royalty in Indonesia. Indonesia might not be quite at the top of everybody's list of safe jurisdictions, given the country's notoriety for corruption and its recent decision to amend the ownership laws.



But John reckons the two per cent net smelter royalty at the Jogjakarta project that Anglo Pacific now owns might end up generating between US$4 million and US$5 million per year, and in spite of all the questions that are asked about Indonesia, the risk to the company is much lower than if it was actually the project operator. Because even though the Indonesian government is now saying that the state should take a 51 per cent interest in all mining projects after ten years, that should have no impact on the terms of the Anglo Pacific royalty which will stay the same as long as Indonesian law is upheld.



But the Indonesian exposure is unique, and John is equivocal as to whether he'd do another deal there. And in fact, the jurisdictional balance of the portfolio looks much as it's always done, only bigger. The Australian coal royalty at Kestrel remains key, but there are now two other producing royalties too: at the Amapa iron ore project in Brazil, owned by Anglo American and Cliffs, and at the El Valle copper and gold project in Spain, owned by Orvana. The company also owns 15 royalties on development projects in Australia, Greenland, Spain, Brazil, Indonesia and Albania. But the country in which it owns the most royalties is Canada. All well-insulated from political risk, and all well-established as mining destinations.



So, bearing all this exposure to mining in mind, is it any wonder that the market correlates the company's shares to the performance of the FTSE 350 miners? The answer to that, given the limited attention spans of most market participants, is of course "no". But the market might be missing a trick. For one thing, Anglo Pacific is committed to paying a progressive dividend, and currently yields more than Petropavlovsk, Centamin, Kenmare, Aquarius, Ferrexpo, Hochschild and African Barrick. More to the point though, is the way the royalty model cuts risk, and cost.



A useful slide in the latest Anglo Pacific presentation lists the benefits of owning royalties as follows: low operational risk, no balance sheet liability, a direct link to revenue not profits, a limited exposure to operating cost inflation, and no exposure to capital cost. Equity dilution? – not on your nelly. What's more, as commodity prices increase, revenues rise. Finally, the generation of new opportunities is fairly cheap. John says that the company has a dozen deals or opportunities in the pipeline at any one time, and at the moment he's particularly interested in picking up assets in the copper space. There's plenty of money in the treasury for deals, and plenty more likely to roll in from the producing royalties. Watch this space for further developments.

[bountyhunter] 16/3/2012 14:32

The Golden Cross (green line crossing black, upwards), first for a long time...

[haydock] 16/3/2012 10:47

Year high, approaching 5 yr. high.
Steady as she goes, as ever.

Snippets from the HZM bb.



vosene - 15 Mar'12 - 08:39 - 2739 of 2740


An interesting comment from Nobster who attended the Regency Mines / Direct Nickel presentation last night, and talked to the head honchos of those companies.

"HZM, I believe If DNi works, teck will reclaim HZM and use the process ASAP."

And from Clive205
(Rusty is Russell Debney of Direct Nickel)

"In reference to HZM, it was briefly mentioned in the Q&A and Rusty's view was that because of the fund raising needs, HZM could not wait for the DNi process to be proven up. That is not to say something might not happen further down the road."

haydock - 15 Mar'12 - 09:06 - 2740 of 2740 edit


Cheers Vosene,
For the Regency snippets at MM.
Always go back in history to the original sourcce & what do we find?

HZM are presenting at MM in May so that might be a good one to attend.

Just being a smart a...
Many thanks HAY