Anglo Pacific Share Discussion Threads

[rogerbridge] 14/8/2012 20:37

Looking good for the future. This is core holding in my ISA, few years to retirement and need more compnaies who are going to be increasig their dividends over the long term. This fits the bill.

[kipper62] 14/8/2012 10:24

Good presentation. Plenty of cash. Excellent royalty opportunities in marketplace. Desire to keep good dividend. Kestrel challenges improving (rain finally stopped). Excellent days ahead chaps. Good fortune to all

[bradjeff] 14/8/2012 10:09

Good presentation all round, bullish and confident.

El Valle is going well and should show good improving income from now on.

The Kestrel repayments to Queensland is due to the fact that the State owns royalties under roads, and as they said, there are no roads!!!!! lol - but apparently there is land that has been put aside for roads and so the state lines its coffers.

May I single handedly say that i'd like to lay a single jolly wide road across the whole of Australia at some point in the next billion years and as such want 3% of everything......???? No? Oh shucks.

[haydock] 14/8/2012 09:58

The book value of the Group's total assets at June 30, 2012 was GBP 342.2 million compared to GBP 371.0 million at
December 31, 2011. As at the period end, this does not include any increase in value over cost that may be attributable
to the Group's Panorama and Trefi coal projects and royalty intangibles

Still on the books for next to nowt !!

Production levels from the Group's private royalty ground at Kestrel should continue at expected levels for the
remainder of the year. With an increasing level of production at the El Valle-Boinas/Carles gold-copper mine in Spain
and increased output at Amapa in Brazil, the Group's royalty cash flows should improve in the second half of the year.

The Group maintains its belief that the long term urbanisation of the developing world should continue to drive demand
for steel related commodities. The current level of currency volatility could also impact positively on precious metals.
The Group's spread of royalty interests gives good exposure to these commodities.

With the possibility of inflationary currents in coming years, the Group remains a stable hedge against perceived weaker
currencies. The Group's revenue is directly linked to the top line of a number of major mining operations, whilst
avoiding exposure to the current inflationary escalation in their mining costs. The Group itself has no operating mines
of its own and consequently limited overheads.

Note: To the top line!!

No worries about increasing costs then !

The best limited overheads of any company known to man ?

All up front & above board as usual: except they have been diddling the Queeensland State for years, or so the auditors have discovered.

[bradjeff] 14/8/2012 09:06

We always knew that the income would be lower, especially as there are no '1-off' disposals to be made at the moment.

BUT...numbers are back up in terms of Kestrel production. El Valle is rising, Amapa is stable and may rise. PLUS... recent royalty purchase will expose us to uranium in the not so distant future of 2013 all being well. So things are getting better and the future remains bright.

While the coking coal prices are lower and Crinum was a disappointment we must focus forwards and they are doing all the right things.

For me personally, the kestral longwall changeover was a good wakeup call - such reliance on a single revenue source is risky, allbeit profitable. So I'd like to see more focus on closer new revenue streams even if it does mean that we pay higher for them.

I remain a 'Happy Hold' on this share.

[nielsc] 14/8/2012 08:23

Montyville2,

I would say the drop in income has now been reversed as stated

"A number of adverse factors impacted royalty income from Kestrel in the first six months of 2012, including a longwall
changeover and adverse weather. The level of production output on the Group's private royalty ground at Kestrel
recovered in the second quarter and should continue in the second half."

and

"The performance of the Group's portfolio of producing royalties was impacted by lower hard coking coal prices and a
short-term fall in sales volumes at Kestrel during the first quarter of 2012."


Cheers,
Niels

[montyville2] 14/8/2012 08:14

Clearly the increase in dividend is positive and demonstrates managements confidence, however the large fall in Income comparatively looks a concern to me. Can anyone more used to looking at balance sheets etc let me know the ratio of income to dividend please

[christh] 14/8/2012 07:56

divi increased by 4.7% to last years divi.

Interim dividend increased by 4.7% to 4.45p per share (H1 2011: 4.25p)

It takes the yearly divi over 10p.
Not bad for those seeking an income e.g. Pension supplement

[christh] 11/8/2012 20:53

an increase in the divi will boost the share price to 300p.

[contrarian2investor] 08/8/2012 14:53

I've been buying APF.

[nielsc] 07/8/2012 14:32

QuePassa,

Yes it a pretty quiet bb. I think most on here have bought and tucked them away for the long term.

Coal prices may soften a little.



Gold makes up more than a third of their mining interests. I think gold will continue upwards for a good few years yet and APF should be able to capitalise on this nicely.

Basically I trust management. The 4% yield is a nice little earner.

I would say that it may be easier to buy into a company that is more specifically a coal miner than APF, which is quite a mixed bag and a very difficult share to analyse down to it's numerous holdings.



Cheers,
Niels

[christh] 07/8/2012 14:31

QuePassa,
it's already dropped from 360p to oversold at 230p.
What more do you expect?

It had already taken the battering because of the bad weather in Australia which shut all the ports and roads.

Now is on its way to recovery as the export has risen considerably.
More royalties are coming up this 2nd half and also very interesting, the company is on the prowl of a cheap aquisition (royalty).
The share price recovery has started and lucky are those who bought are buying now below 300p.
Remind you that Pilling have tipped APF as a BUY when the price was 298p.
At this price is a steal.
I have done what I could and bought in my ISA as much as I could.
In the years to come it will be a very nice nest egg with the growing yield for my pension.
DYOR

[quepassa] 07/8/2012 13:12

I am glad you find it interesting. That's good to have bulletin board chatter which is stimulating to others.

There is nothing to hide. My trading view is clear. I am a distinct fan of APF. I am prepared to buy APF again but my trading view/entry point is sub £2 because I personally think APF may be heading for further price correction and does not offer, in my opinion only, such good value at the current share price. I may be totally wrong.

I believe APF stock is challenged because :-

1. Slowing economies are leading to softer coal prices.
2. Growing sector negativity.
3. Uninspiring results like those released by Xstrata today
4. Global weakening of commodities
5. A yield on APF which is now not as enticing as before as so many corporates have dramatically increased dividend yields.

Some yield comparisons:-
APF 4.1%
BP 5%
Centica 4.9%
National Grid 5.8%
BAT 3.8%
RoyalDutchShell 4.3%
BHP 4%
VODAFONE 5.1%

and those are just some FTSE100 blue-chips offering these great yields before looking for even higher yields in the FTSE 250/350 indeces.

Against this back-drop, whilst I continue to be very positive about APF as a company (and I cannot stress that enough), I do not necessarily feel that its shares offer particularly good value in today's market. In recent times/years you could buy APF and expect capital growth and yield increase because of the commodities boom, now I would say that immediate capital growth in this stock is more challenged as commodities prices are much softer.

If you therefore buy the stock for yield, you are right that it is "not bad" but it is for me at least no longer outstandingly attractive vis-a-vis other yields which are available.

That is why I personally believe that the price of APF is not at this juncture particularly attractive.

I haven't done the leg-work about divi cover on utilities versus APF but perhaps you have a good point there, although this is an indicator which I personally don't give much weighting in personal investment decisions.

I would love to be persuaded how wrong I am in my trading view but so far I haven't had much to go on.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[nielsc] 07/8/2012 12:05

QuePassa,

A 4% yield may not be stunning, but it isn't bad. What kind of dividend cover do these utility companies have. I would hazard a guess nowhere as high as APF with a dividend cover of 3.74.

I do find it interesting that you are trying to give reason why APF will fall while at the same time commending APF on it's great business model. Very obvious that you are looking to buy APF at lower levels as you have said yourself.

Cheers,
Niels

[quepassa] 06/8/2012 09:09

Of course, a 4% yield is not that stunning nowadays.

Many boring utilities yield in excess of that and they are considered highly defensive stocks and capital-protective, compared to racier mining/mining-related stocks.

This is a big week for mining results with Xstrata reporting interims tomorrow,whose results are expected ( according to today's FT. page 19) to suffer on the back of falling commodities prices and rising costs, similar to Anglo-American last month. Apparently, some analysts are expecting Xstrata results to be down 50% on last year. - If this is so, it will further impact negatively on the already poor market sentiment of recent months.

Whilst APF have a great business model, excellent track-record and good management, the general sector back-drop and market sentiment are not so rosy any more for stocks involved in this sector.

Pushing forward against negative sector sentiment is not easy to do. Indeed, many situations just get further swept back together with the general flow, irrespective of their strengths.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[trytotakeiteasy] 03/8/2012 15:33

fall further my ass...... operations for key royalty assets got back on stream last quarter.. yield was over 4%...

[quepassa] 31/7/2012 10:43

Yes, you are probably right.

However, my view is that Anglo-Pac will fall further in the short-term - specifically to sub £2- before the climb back up to levels you suggest.

ALL IMO DYOR.

QP


PS. Just one further point of order please

Your assertion that "the market has fallen since April so everything is (sic) come down" is not correct.

The market (FTSE 100) has made up all its losses since mid-April and is now at or higher than its mid-April level.



but APF is still 25/30% down nonetheless.

[christh] 31/7/2012 09:35

QuePassa 30 Jul'12 - 10:31 - 5842 of 5842

the market has fallen since Apirl so everything is come down.
The NAV is applied there that's why Pilling tipped APF.
But as you can see the market is recovering as the euro is on the mend.
So we should see a rise to 300p not long.

[quepassa] 30/7/2012 10:31

Pilling putting out a buy rekko at 298.5p.

Just three months later the stock is 25% negative relevant to the rekko.

That's not really much of a rekko in my view and wouldn't instill faith in me at least about making any investment decision/assumption in apf on the basis of that track-record.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[johnrxx99] 30/7/2012 06:03

Whilst I agree, I think the market is asking, will we have another Lehman event in the short to medium term? Let's face it, there are so many possible black swans about it's a bit like asking is there other life in the universe?

Apart from physical gold, I sold out of virtually everything a while ago with cash held in various currencies - just spending money in sterling. Until the euro crisis is finally resolved and not followed by a sterling/dollar crisis, I'll probably stay that way, apart from some short term trading on a day/weekly view.

Markets are dysfunctional and not investment grade.

[christh] 28/7/2012 19:57

FROM THE PILLING & CO Newsletter

The market weakness will offer aquisition opportunities (chief executive quote in May).

APF shares were recommended by PILLING at 298.5p in April 2012.
The shares are down 15.16% from 298.5p to 253.25p (early July 2012).
The fall present a buying opportunity.

So the shares are now oversold at 225p.
This is a unique Buying opportunity for long term investors.

[haydock] 26/7/2012 15:37

More ...


Total Returns
1D
1M
3M
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
.







10 yr. return. annualised

APF :27.07%


RIT:12.93 %

Possibly the most respected, at least in the past, absolute return funds.

Where the Rothchilds own 22 %

Nuff said !!!

[quepassa] 26/7/2012 15:23

Good luck to you.

QP

[nielsc] 26/7/2012 15:20

QP,

All the best with the entry strategy. I may buy more if it reaches that kind of price.

Cheers,
Niels