Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

[gaiusgracchus] 02/12/2022 17:16

Because the cash owed to minorities would be dividended to them regularly over time while most of the balance sheet cash has been accumulated over time, over many years. So some of the cash generated this year may still be owed to minorities but it will be a small portion of it. Essentially the minorities are not going to let cash due to them just sit on AEP's balance sheet year after year. This is my conjecture. If anyone has a better idea then by all meabs speak.

[stemis] 02/12/2022 13:01

Correct me if I'm wrong but I shouldn't think the minorities have any claim to the cash on AEP's balance sheet(?). The large minority interest is a claim on a portion of the fixed assets and working capital.

Why do you believe that?

[foxfox79] 30/11/2022 15:28

is this even possible, to smoke out the small holders with a low bid?

[gaiusgracchus] 29/11/2022 08:18

Correct me if I'm wrong but I shouldn't think the minorities have any claim to the cash on AEP's balance sheet(?). The large minority interest is a claim on a portion of the fixed assets and working capital. I hope so...And if that's the case by the end of the year they will be trading on a trailing EV/EBIT multiple of 1x. Sure, palm oil prices have come off their highs but still, this is super cheap.Which begs the question, are we as minority shareholders going to get screwed? Is asking the question also answering it?

[skanjete2] 12/11/2022 08:20

4,75% on 250mUS$ produces 12mUS$ intrest a year, or 26p/share

[34adsaddsa] 11/11/2022 10:56

Indonesian base rate up to 4.75%.

[tigerbythetail] 03/11/2022 10:05

Looking at the book, I have the impression we have a sizeable seller willing to accept 780p to 800p for their shares. Given volume is low on this share, and the company do not seem to care about the share price much, this process could last for some time.
As always with such shares, once the seller is done, the price will magically rise 30% or more. Patience, or good timing, is all.

[tigerbythetail] 02/11/2022 13:19

I'm hoping that this excessive caution is the legacy of major shareholder the late Mrs. Lim, and that we will now get a more modern approach to running the business.
The stress test that the company imposed on itself was absurd - they hold enough cash to withstand five years of a 50% drop in average production combined with a 50% drop in average prices! Hopefully, we now get a more sensible approach to paying dividends and general financial management and corporate communication.
We will see...

[foxfox79] 02/11/2022 12:27

It almost as if they do this on purpose.. to accumulate themselves cheaply in preparation of buyout?

[tigerbythetail] 02/11/2022 11:35

Cash increase affected by dollar / rupiah exchange rate - the cash is held in Indonesian rupiah, but the rupiah has devalued against the rampant US dollar (just as much most other currencies). Assuming the dollar falls back towards long term averages in due course, then the USD value of the cash pile will increase accordingly.
As Visitor noted on the other board, the "stockpile adjusted EV" for this company is something like £70m. Which is deeply crazy when compared to the more "normal" valuation that the market places on rival palm oil producer MPE.
I agree that the Trading Update is written poorly. This company badly needs to pay a reasonable dividend, perhaps to introduce share buybacks as well, and to improve its PR. But I guess its failings in those departments are what has led to the current misprice.

[foxfox79] 02/11/2022 11:20

Cash increase seems minimal, further increase stocks? as usual , the TU is rather pessimistic...

[tigerbythetail] 02/11/2022 11:05

Trading statement out. Confirms that AEP is simply an amazing bargain at these prices. If the BoD were to announce even a "normal" dividend (let alone the "special" that they could pay out given the huge and growing cash pile) then I believe the share price would double or even triple.

[ilad60] 02/11/2022 09:36

Trading update Q3

[skanjete2] 28/9/2022 11:53

CPO is quoted on the world market in USD and then translated into local Rupiah.
So sales are USD, costs are mainly Rupiah. The USDIDR evolution is indeed positive.

Cash is held in Rupiah, but in relation to the share price, you have to consider GBPIDR, not USDIDR :

[ilad60] 28/9/2022 11:21

AEP is selling in Indonesian Rupee, not in USD



Short-term investments are Rupiah fixed deposits with more than 3 months tenure
Cash and cash equivalents are also in Rupiah

[foxfox79] 26/9/2022 09:08

Amazing value here, usd/gbp now at 0.94 ..... so we're almost trading at EV of 0

[foxfox79] 22/9/2022 19:38

Indeed , excellent place to park your money during these times, will never go below 6, upside x 2-3 in case of take over

[skanjete2] 21/9/2022 14:48

I suppose we've reach about 6£/share cash at the moment.

Even taking into account the minorities, we're at a EV/EBITDA = 1 !

[ilad60] 12/9/2022 09:25

MP EVANS
Excellent results

§ 65% increase in earnings per share to 63.3p (2021 - 38.3p)

§ 25% increase in interim dividend per share to 12.5p (2021 - 10p)

§ Net cash surplus of US$13.5 million (2021 net debt US$67.7 million)

Given the high yields and extraction rates achieved by the Group, and the continuing strong cash generation, the board is proposing an increase in the interim dividend to 12.5p per share (2021 - 10p per share).

The Group has an unbroken track record over more than thirty years, of at least maintaining, or whenever possible increasing, ordinary dividends. The board believes that the ongoing trend of increasing yields from the Group's estates, combined with the increasing milling capacity, forms a firm foundation for continuing strong cash flows, which in turn supports the Group's progressive dividend policy.

[foxfox79] 08/9/2022 18:38

Book value is not 1274 pence: 60k plantation owned x 15k/hect+288 m usd, 1,2B usd minimum), so stupid to 'take profits'

[ilad60] 02/9/2022 11:55

Investors' Chronicle

it looks increasingly likely that 2022 will be a year of two halves, with record CPO prices in the first half followed by much lower prices in the second half. Admittedly, with Anglo’s shares trading on a 12-month trailing price/earnings (PE) ratio of four, 29 per cent below book value per share of 1,274p and net cash of 537p backing up more than half the share price, then the weaker backdrop for CPO prices is largely priced in.

That said, the earnings cycle has clearly peaked and with Anglo’s shares trading close to last month’s all-time closing high (952p), it now feels the right time to bank the 59 per cent paper profit if you have been following my 2020 Bargain Shares Portfolio. Take profits.

[ntv] 27/8/2022 08:34

Sold all ours after results

[skanjete2] 25/8/2022 12:24

Great results again, indeed.

Although I find it annoying that they again downplay the positives and accentuate the negatives.

[ilad60] 25/8/2022 11:56

The Group's balance sheet remains strong with no outstanding bank loans. Net assets as at 30 June 2022 were $585.3 million compared to $496.6 million as at 30 June 2021 and $542.1 million as at 31 December 2021. The increase in net assets from the last interim report was attributed to higher profit and higher inventories. Inventories, comprising mainly of CPO, built up to $41 million against $15 million as at 30 June 2021 due to the CPO export ban in Indonesia which is explained in more detail under commodity prices below. The Indonesian Rupiah has depreciated by 4% against the US dollar in the first half of 2022.



As at 30 June 2022, the Group had cash and cash equivalents including all fixed deposits with banks of $246.8 million (H1 2021: $160.7 million, 31 December 2021: $219.7 million).

great result

[stemis] 25/8/2022 11:45

Pretty downbeat outlook. Hard to see this going anywhere in the next 6 months.