Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 27/6/2022 12:29

Decent update although would have been nice to know the cash balance, which surely must be at least $280m by end of June. Prudently I reckon about 80% belongs to AEP shareholders (rest to minority holders in subs), so on a share price of 820p that would make EV of $176m.

Earnings in H1 2021 were $38m on revenue of $201m. CPO price ex mill was $1064/t for 1st 5 months falling by 30% (to $745/t) for June, an average of $1011/t. That's 43% higher than H1 2021 of $701/t. Applying that to H1 2021 sales, and a 4% reduction in volumes, gives another $63m of sales. Don't see why that shouldn't feed directly into profit, less 15% for minorities and a tax charge of 20%, giving H1 2022 earnings of around $78m.

It'll be interesting to see if my prediction is close but, if so, puts AEP on a cash adjusted P/E based on H1 2022 of 1.1 or an EBITDA multiple of 0.9.

[ilad60] 27/6/2022 09:37

AGM Statement

the six mills processed a lower volume of crops with the Crude Palm Oil ("CPO") production at 187,000mt, 4% lower than the corresponding period in 2021 (five months to May 2021: 194,400mt).

The mills accordingly enjoyed a 54% higher average ex-mill price of $1,064/mt compared to $691/mt for the same period last year. The ex-mill price in Indonesia has, however, fallen by as much as 30% since 28 April 2022 due to the confusion and the uncertainty of the rules surrounding the export of palm products despite the export ban being lifted on 23 May 2022.

[stemis] 21/6/2022 16:15

Current market cap = $414m. Cash at 31 March was $253m. By end June sb at least $280m. Even assuming only 85% belongs to AEP shareholders, that's $238m, so an EV of $176m. In 1st half of 2021 AEP made earnings of $38m for it's shareholders (= $ 76m annualised). Cash free P/E of 2.3 at worst...

[ilad60] 21/6/2022 15:21

hxxps://evans.ir-data.com/article/id//slug/311428222342823220-indonesian-export-tax-update-2022-06-21

MP EVANS

As reported in the trading statement published on 10 June 2022, the Group achieved an average mill-gate price for its sales of crude palm oil of US$1,079 per tonne in the first five months of 2022, compared with US$715 for the same period in 2021. Following the government's revisions to the export duty and levy, coupled with a softening in the cif Rotterdam price, recent mill-gate prices achieved have been around US$750 per tonne.

[ilad60] 16/6/2022 07:30

A U.K. Value Pick: Anglo-Eastern Plantations

hxxps://uk.investing.com/analysis/a-uk-value-pick-angloeastern-plantations-200521687

[ilad60] 13/6/2022 12:54

RSPO Certification
The Group had been mulling to certify their plantations with RSPO, and as a first step has appointed an external consultant to study the cost and benefits of certification. The report of the study is available here:


hxxps://www.angloeastern.co.uk/~/media/Files/A/Anglo-Eastern/Sustainability/Sustainable%20Certification/RSPO%20Gap%20Analysis%20%20Strategic%20RecommendationsBrief.pdf

[34adsaddsa] 08/6/2022 22:55

Just amazingly stupid. They deliberately create a collapse in exports and then scramble to fix the crisis they created.

If they would just let the market work and use the export tax revenues + palm oil company profits to distribute funds to the population so they can buy oil at market prices everyone would be better off.

[stemis] 20/5/2022 13:24

Generated 70p in cash in one quarter alone...

[tigerbythetail] 20/5/2022 13:16

I still make AEP an out and out misprice - even factoring in every negative I can think of (derisory dividend, Indonesia unpredictability, 10%-15% local partners in subsidiaries, etc.)
$252m in cash in the group (and no debts) against a mcap of $420m (850p share price)!
$34m in cash added in the last quarter!
I do wish the company would pay a proper dividend and spend some money on proper corporate communication and PR. IMO, the share price would double if they did.

[skanjete2] 20/5/2022 12:10

Is anyone attending the AGM on June 27th?

[jay083] 20/5/2022 11:57

added $34.5m in the Q (previous Q +$26m). I make EV ~£150m. I think cash will only be paid out if it suits the major holder.

[34adsaddsa] 20/5/2022 11:43

Pray for the poor souls who sold this and bought Dekel because of ultra short-term nonsense.

[daza70] 20/5/2022 11:21

trading stmt out

[ntv] 19/5/2022 12:37

From Monday allegedly but we will have to wait and see if he changes his mind

[tigerbythetail] 19/5/2022 12:24

Good news indeed!

[kor_wraith] 19/5/2022 11:39

Indonesian export ban lifted, excellent news for AEP

[tigerbythetail] 18/5/2022 10:42

Pressure building on Indonesian government to change course:
www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/16/indonesian-farmers-decry-palm-oil-export-ban-as-prices-plummet
I think the export ban will be rescinded in the next week or so now.

[skanjete2] 15/5/2022 19:30

Apparently N. Roditi sold about 800k shares in the first quarter.

And in '20-'21 KBC Securities sold quite some shares (about a million).

Maybe that's what has been holding back the rise in stock price?

[undervaluedassets] 14/5/2022 06:21

It seems AEP is getting punished for having too much money.

I think that this will turn around.

Why? because many companies will soon be suffering for the real crime of not having enough money.

AEP have both assets and cash; the market will recognise this in the end.

Pe of 4 (sharescope) is just wrong; the historical average pe is 10. Over time we will see the shares move through £10 and then on to £20.

[tigerbythetail] 09/5/2022 13:51

I'd give it another week or two before the Indonesia export ban is lifted:

hxxps://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/9/indonesia-faces-international-pressure-over-palm-oil-export-ban

[34adsaddsa] 08/5/2022 06:02

"It plans to resume exports when the local bulk price of cooking oil falls to 14,000 rupiah (US$0.97), having soared in recent weeks to 26,000 rupiah.

The price had dropped to 17,200 rupiah by Friday."

[martinfrench] 04/5/2022 11:32

i'm interested, but as others say, if they have such a small (ridiculously small divi) and they are not increasing acreage....then not sure what they are doing

[stemis] 04/5/2022 08:26

I agree that the one sure way to get value for a burgeoning cash balance is to distribute it to shareholders. However, if you are a management with a long term horizon, and have experienced cyclicality in the market before, I guess having a huge war chest to snap up assets (i.e. land) the next time there is a depression is hugely attractive.

[ntv] 04/5/2022 08:19

Tipped in IC again by ST
Thread certainly got busy than 6 months and volumes have massively increased here over that time period