Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bumpa33] 02/12/2024 12:18

SEA news was about as good as it gets - $10.5m upfront is excellent, another $10m on commercial find and 10% free carry. Not sure what more people would expect a minnow to negotiate? But there’s stock to churn from the placing. Separate the technical from the fundamental.

[wanobi] 02/12/2024 11:36

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[wanobi] 02/12/2024 11:34

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[katsy] 02/12/2024 11:32

I think many bought SEA to sell on farm out news. However, the farm out partner wasn't one of the mega oil companies like Total, the percentage retained is smaller than anticipated. Also I was expecting a bigger cash payout. Plus the placing at the same time.

Having said all that it's still great news and the company after the placing at the current share price is still only valued at £22.5m. It would probably cost £20m just to drill one hole in waters.

[riggerbeautz] 02/12/2024 11:27

Tempted to dabble at 38p

[pogue] 02/12/2024 11:12

Yes hoping so very disappointing action today not even above recent highs!
Once the way forward is spelt out tomorrow it may improve sentiment.

[bumpa33] 02/12/2024 11:08

investormeet presentation tomorrow Pogue - from recall the stock went on a tear after the last one. Can it do the same this time…

[pogue] 02/12/2024 10:30

A very interesting post from a geologist on LSE called Sircadian regard CoS of 20% at SEA. Not a proflic poster there and only been there 6 months but seems genuine enough from his posts..

'I think the key risk is seal integrity - the seismic shows gas leakage above the structure and seafloor samples show thermogenic methane has reached the surface. The way the Chance of Success risking is calculated, the seal is likely to have a very high risk factor, bringing the CoS down significantly. The calculation will be heavily skewed by an 1 negative element (see Point 4 below).

A few comments from my experience as a geologist in the industry for 20 years:

1) Seals are not "broken", they act as hydraulic pumps, opening to relieve pressure before shutting again. The leakage is likely roughly equal to the charge rate. Many discoveries in the area have these features and huge volumes retained in the reservoir.

2) The coal source rocks look very thick in the seismic. This is likely to produce significant charge volumes.

3) 20-25% CoS is pretty industry standard in frontier areas.

4) CoS = P(Source) x P(Seal) x P(Reservoir) x P(Trap) x P(Migration). Values for each element are never 1.0 as we can never be certain, so 0.9 is often used. So assuming all other elements are 0.9 (90%) and the seal is 0.3 (30%), we would have 0.9*0.3*0.9*0.9*0.9 = 20%.

5) The gas seeps and seismic evidence show this is an active system.

I have seen many worse plays with a higher CoS, so I suspect ERCE who conducted the CPR have deliberately been cautious. In fact, I know they have having spoken to them at a conference recently.

Is it guaranteed? Of course not, it's a calculated risk, but I feel the huge volumes are well worth it.'

[hazl] 02/12/2024 09:07

Well that was a great start to the week my OMI play.

[pogue] 02/12/2024 08:38

Bumpa
yes guess so.

[foetus in your brain] 02/12/2024 08:31

ONT chart looks fantastic. Bought a few

[bumpa33] 02/12/2024 08:29

see where it goes when the dust settles Pogue…

[pogue] 02/12/2024 08:27

Off course, cheers Bumpa. You cant sell at the moment so figures.
Edit
can now at 39.8p

[bumpa33] 02/12/2024 08:23

changed my mind on FIN, sold at break even.

[bumpa33] 02/12/2024 08:22

There’s placing churn to get through first Pogue.

[pogue] 02/12/2024 08:19

doesnt look like the market is impressed by SEA's deal! share price drifting down after spiking up. Now 40.4p to buy. I expected a bit of a better jump up than that.

[wanobi] 02/12/2024 08:18

Oops I was seeing CNG,, doh!!

[riggerbeautz] 02/12/2024 08:15

Intrigued by CNR? Actually, amazed if Mark Child pulls it off.

[zangdook] 02/12/2024 07:57

MTL are taking a loan which would cover about 2.3p per CNR share. ;-)

[bumpa33] 02/12/2024 07:55

question ain’t how. question is why?!

[wanobi] 02/12/2024 07:53

MTL to buy CNR ,, blimey, didn't see that coming,,, wonder how that'll be done,,, debt etc .... Interesting to see...

[wanobi] 02/12/2024 07:50

Good morning all, Cheers Wan :-)