Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 02/3/2024 13:27

Very thought provoking interview. Not just BTC, but investing in general, diversification, history, currency collapse, big tech, opportunity etc

Long, so watch at 2 x speed imo.

Michael Saylor Interview: Why Bitcoin Will DOMINATE In 2024

[pogue] 02/3/2024 12:12

AVCT was mentioned this week due to the dilution there is a very good article from a commentator I rate highly, Oakbloke. Worth a read, no advice on whether he is wrong or right though. I don't hold but am considering getting onboard again having traded it a bit in COVID times.
By the way POLB also have a phase II ready drug that stops the side effects of cancer drugs that produce cytokline storms, the thing that kills you in COVID, They are planning on selling/ partnering up and so taking the easy money and have a portion of the royalties later if the partner makes it to sales POLB have a pipeline of other drugs I should add. A less stressful business plan. I hold there.
Anyway article with teaser.


.......Upside?
Half of cash burn is paying down debt. So a NAV of £43m remains at the end of 2025 plus the value from the Phase 2 and the Value of the diagnostics business. On a PE of 15 of forecast FY25 earnings the diagnostics business could be worth £30m+. Selling that would get Avacta to debt free and a further 1-2 years runway to 2027.

An investor has to consider the chances of a “take out” event in the next 21 months. I spoke recently about how biotech is heating up in my article IPO for IPO and in IP and Arix how $150bn of acquirable Biotechs have been taken out and Bristol and Merck face patent cliffs.

Negotiating with Phase 2 results is completely different to Phase 1a.

Raising a further bond with Phase 2 results is completely different too. Another £55m debt raise (if that’s possible) probably takes the business through to cash profitability.

Is £2m therapeutics revenue per half-year period too low? If the revenue were £5m+ (like in 1H22) then that extends the runway by 1 year.

Diagnostics revenue growing just £0.5m per period in FY25 may be too low?

What about revenue streams from Point by the end of 2025 when there’s been over 4 years development since 2021?......

[jbravo2] 02/3/2024 09:31

Can’t say I have a strong opinion either way on it bozzy (sums involved are relatively small) but if they wanted to, then I reckon it’s a good thing.

[wanobi] 02/3/2024 08:13

and there was I, earlier yesterday,,, talking about AAZ's share price drifting down until we get TD news.... :-) LOL :-) :-) doh!!

[wanobi] 02/3/2024 08:10

Good morning all, Cheers Wan :-)

Yes, DEST GAP 31.5p to fill has now been filled :-) :-)

have a good day all :-)

[bozzy_s] 02/3/2024 01:11

That was a spectacular reversal after 3pm. Hope it's AAZ specific, rather than gold driven. Given that AAZ hasn't moved up with gold before, I'm optimistic.

Had a bit of a thought re cashflow and management's responsibility to shareholders / maintaining a high share price...

In these tough months, with cash basically reduced to zero, would the management be willing to take some of their salaries in shares?

While they aren't the greediest of AIM directors, perhaps a pay cut or deferral would be sensible given the company is currently loss-making.

And taking salaries in shares at the current depressed price should be rewarding in the long term, if they remain committed to the projects. I don't care about Reza going over 30% - it's easy to get a waiver to avoid an automatic bid for the company.

What do others feel? Shares instead of cash for directors?

[mattjos] 01/3/2024 22:54

yes, new AT Weekly closing high for Gold today. I remain convinced we will see $2,500+ this calendar year ... hopefully a nice steady climb over the next 8 months.
However, the FED & others are clearly very concerned what happens in under 2 weeks time when the BTFP ends .. the banks are actually in worse shape now than they were 12 months ago when this was launched.
Could easily see the next Operation Twist (QE) start in a few weeks time while the FED keeps interest rates at current levels ... it really is looking like a total mess & the FED's actions are becoming ever more desperate to try and keep the USA banking sector (non-GSIBs) afloat ... expect some more distressed bank sales very shortly unless the FED steps in with some other bonkers lifeboat scheme.

[xow98] 01/3/2024 22:38

Gold at 2,084 should help assuming we get production going again.

[onedayrodders] 01/3/2024 18:57

Gold spikes as the FED get ready to kick the can down the road with another round of "stealth" QE



Anyone remember when Ben Bernanke said QE was only a short term emergency measure back in 2009 ?

God help us when they actually run out of road

[2cmb] 01/3/2024 18:52

Jeanesy the gap in DEST got closed a few days ago but today it has definitely been closed. Maybe Wan will confirm that with a chart.

In the meantime we await news from AAZ and that can come anytime in the current month of March. I think it will be in favour of AAZ fingers crossed. Just a question of buying currently if I had more finance.
I am all loaded up with my holding.
Wishing all a good weekend bearing in mind the weather. It does not seem to stop raining !!!
ATB.

[all in eol] 01/3/2024 18:38

I see CPH2 put in another 30% today. It really is one that got away…

[digger18] 01/3/2024 16:39

Thank you for the data XOW. Weighted towards sells but nothing extreme.
Possibly news on Monday with the late flurry.

[jeanesy] 01/3/2024 16:38

Im suspecting the late flurry here is down to the POG
Has the gap at DEST closed this afternoon ?

[wanobi] 01/3/2024 16:23

evening all,,, blimey, what's happening :-) LOL :-) oh what a game this is LOL :-)

as always, big thanx to you all for your continued support of this thread,,, tis very much appreciated :-) :-)

I wish you all a fine & peaceful weekend :-)

Cheers
Wan :-)

[lefrene] 01/3/2024 15:55

Has the market begun to notice that gold looks like it could be breaking out?

There's certainly enough talking heads predicting big moves up in gold. Been doing it for years of course, but perhaps this time they get it right.

[lloydypool] 01/3/2024 14:09

MBO selling now but getting money (or not) later? I guess it could work out but I really don't see what the delay is in a SPAC with a pile of cash buying a none trading entity & in turn paying out a few million for a bit of MBO that is supposedly clever IP /software. It must have been going on nearly 18 months and SuperApps supposedly valued at a billion surely can get their hands on a few million dollars to pay over to MBO? No?

With regards to the TD at AAZ, I can see why some are panicking but I wonder whether the most simple explanation is the right one here ... i.e. its important to AAZ/shareholders buts it is low down the priority list at government level. I remember a similar panic re ratifying new areas and it eventually happening way after everyone was hoping.

[xow98] 01/3/2024 13:10

My analysis of trades on AIMX for last 18 weeks. Using published Bid - Offer spread at time of trade, anything above Bid +50% of spread is a buy, anything below Bid +50% of spread is a sell, anything equal to Bid +50% of spread is an unknown. Appreciate that the published spread might not be the true spread, but best I can do.

Week------BUY--------SELL-----UKNOWN

44------121,424 ----134,332--------0
45----1,201,230 --1,005,459---76,776
46------615,586 ----502,100---54,382
47-------81,366 ----136,669----3,918
48------237,590 ----375,817----8,253
49------157,416 ----410,431---20,777
50------510,675 ----832,796---23,847
51------268,531 ----404,991---25,441
52-------75,708 ----277,402---14,008
1-------280,243 ----561,927---44,066
2-------197,061 ----231,678---43,690
3-------180,086 ----286,771---27,008
4-------684,156 ----575,423---12,715
5-------529,775 ----733,858----1,762
6-------353,590 ----404,503---15,136
7-------123,613 ----375,478----2,145
8-------102,963 ----257,521---28,930
9---------1,270 ----339,012----3,943

Total-5,722,283--7,846,168---406,797
---------41%--------56%---------3%

[jbravo2] 01/3/2024 12:26

The debt will keep increasing as we are spending on developing new mines.
That will happen even when we run the processing plant.
In the meantime we are back piling new ore on heap leach pads, income will rise as temperature increases
There will also be even more debt to take on to get Demirli up and running, that hasn’t even been discussed yet!
Not for the nervous eh Katsy?
:D

[jbravo2] 01/3/2024 12:19

Yes, it’s just a waiting game
I spoke with Bill last week and he was hopeful that news could come by the end of March. Hopeful, not guaranteed. It’s a two way process.
A lot of work was done to collect info over the last few months (drilling the dam wall/stability surveys etc), the application for the raise went in a while ago, the government had asked a few questions, we were confident the company and the consultants would be able to answer the questions without needing any further work (as in drilling of the wall etc) and our response was due to be in by now.

[2cmb] 01/3/2024 12:13

JB'thank you for your input. In the meantime just hanging in there until some clarity arrives via RNS from the Co.
ATB.

[jbravo2] 01/3/2024 12:00

Hi cmb
I think a 2.5m raise would still be enough for about a year’s worth of processing.
Whatever the raise approved we will need a new TD and how long it’s going to take to identify a site is a little unclear right now.
Knight Piesold are clear that the best site is the previously identified site but whether that will happen now… well I doubt it… a bit too much history.
It will clearly be a priority for the govt and the company to establish a new procedure for identifying such sites. Especially as AzerGold are going to be needing a few sites over the next few years.
Water access won’t be an issue. Water is added at the processing stage, and that location isn’t moving.
Yes the TD contains a lot of gold but to access it would need a tailings dam of sufficient capacity to allow the reprocessing of the entire existing dam. With all the fresh resources to go at, I view it as a project for the long term.

[2cmb] 01/3/2024 11:34

Guys I am no mining engineer but 3/4 of you have visited the minsite and are aware as to the size of the TD. What if the Azari's reach a compromise and say we will only allow the 2.5 meter extension and AAZ should find another site for another place for a new TD .
What happens then? Water access would ofcourse be a necessity.
If my memory does not fail me, wasn't there a mention that the TD contained $30 million worth of gold in it ?
Sorry for asking a naive question.

[riggerbeautz] 01/3/2024 11:32

Bumpa I nearly quipped on that this morning, but everyone seems a bit uptight lately.
Georgeous George being back doesn’t say much for U.K politics!

[bumpa33] 01/3/2024 11:24

Still gives me nightmares, him drooling all over Rula Lenska…!