Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[riggerbeautz] 26/5/2020 10:22

Lol GG.

What if this, if that. Fear and greed breeds uncertainty Wan, you’re doing a sterling job ;)

[pogue] 26/5/2020 10:21

Wan
The only reason that you may feel its close is that it is now obvious there is a blockage in the share price I argued that a long time ago and got kicked off the other board for trying to get a discussion on it. It now appears to be agreed there is a hold up so everyone thinks it must be resolved soon I don't see any signs of that unless the JORC moves things.

[goodgrief] 26/5/2020 10:19

wan... you're going to give nightmares!!

[wanobi] 26/5/2020 10:18

meanwhile AVCT knocking on 200p's door!!! wowzer :-) GLA Holders, Cheers Wan :-)

[wanobi] 26/5/2020 10:10

fwiw & that's nothing as it pure gut feeling, me thinks whatever it is,,, is close now :-) we shall see,,, cheers Wan :-)

two things we know for sure pogue;

if its good, the share price will rocket as its impossible to buy AAZ shares in size in a rise....

conversely

if its bad, the share price will tank as its impossible to sell AAZ shares in size in a fall....

[pogue] 26/5/2020 10:08

The worry with AAZ is if the earth shattering news that they must be hiding if its positive may come when gold is falling so the peak maybe past something to consider.

[wanobi] 26/5/2020 10:03

AAZ - don't forget Bill's final words 'watch this space',,, whatever is going on behind the scenes could be a game changer me thinks :-) GLA Holders, Cheers Wan :-)

fwiw - to me, AAZ is a perfect example of how the markets work short term, Fear & Greed,,, right now there is massive uncertainty in regard to the AZERGOV, PSA, inside & outside country opportunities, TO bid, JV, you name it,,,,, so current operational performance is thrown out the window as emotions take over and drive the share price ... :-)

[gold finger 1] 26/5/2020 10:03

I can see now why the share price is falling.The more you make the less you are worth.
That is why all the companies that are closed down and losing money every day are going up?

I'll stick to picking money making debt free companies.
What about a company that is bought for 10 pound because they take over the debt?

[2sporrans] 26/5/2020 10:02

Skeptic

Well as dp has posted, we need a new +ve be it good news, compelling broker report or whatever.

I thought that Strategic RNS hinted that the exploration has been going well.
We are due a Q1 Exploration update any time soon aren't we?
And i expect that and more will be taken into consideration by Hardman.
If they don't put a convincing case for a considerably higher valuation than
160p I will be very concerned.

Just dripped in another 2k of shares....
though guess a re-test of 120p likely, can never be sure.

XD date in June....may as well bag that.

[wanobi] 26/5/2020 09:59

whilst being debt free, raking in cash, paying a divi, massive potential, extending LOM, polywhatever discovery,, etc etc etc... LOL LOL LOL, oh what a game this GG :-) LOL Cheers Wan :-)

[skeptic1] 26/5/2020 09:57

Also...Brokers’; notes?!?

[goodgrief] 26/5/2020 09:57

Almost a unique distinction having a falling share price in a gold bull market (all other things being equal).

[wanobi] 26/5/2020 09:46

KS posted this on the main thread, many thanx KS, had to copy it here for us numbers numpties to learn from, well me anyhow :-) LOL LOL LOL Cheers Wan :-)

Enterprise value is market cap less cash plus debt.

In the case of AAZ, no debt, so market cap less cash. What this means, is that with a constant market cap (share price) as cash in the bank increases, the enterprise value falls - this indicates that the value of the business (it's net assets excluding the cash balance) is decreasing (this would make sense in a world where the mine life is maximised and decreasing as every ounce is dug up and metals prices are constant).

If you get to a point where cash in bank = or greater than market cap you get an enterprise value of zero or negative, implying if the company were purchased at that share price they get the business effectively for 'free' or even get paid to take it off our hands - because they end up with more cash from the transaction than it has cost to buy the business!

For AAZ to maintain a constant enterprise value the share price should be rising each day to reflect the increase cash build. At the moment the share price is going down as cash at bank is increasing, which is a double whammy. This implies the market thinks the inherent value of the business is decreasing on a daily basis, not really logical.

[skeptic1] 26/5/2020 09:45

So we are to expect further share price bleeding even though we are becoming more valuable each day...

Are we expecting anything to stop the rot from setting in?

[wanobi] 26/5/2020 09:45

yep, nice work Rb, cheers Wan :-)

[king suarez] 26/5/2020 09:40

Enterprise value is market cap less cash plus debt.

In the case of AAZ, no debt, so market cap less cash. What this means, is that with a constant market cap (share price) as cash in the bank increases, the enterprise value falls - this indicates that the value of the business (it's net assets excluding the cash balance) is decreasing (this would make sense in a world where the mine life is maximised and decreasing as every ounce is dug up and metals prices are constant).

If you get to a point where cash in bank = or greater than market cap you get an enterprise value of zero or negative, implying if the company were purchased at that share price they get the business effectively for 'free' or even get paid to take it off our hands - because they end up with more cash from the transaction than it has cost to buy the business!

For AAZ to maintain a constant enterprise value the share price should be rising each day to reflect the increase cash build. At the moment the share price is going down as cash at bank is increasing, which is a double whammy. This implies the market thinks the inherent value of the business is decreasing on a daily basis, not really logical.

[pogue] 26/5/2020 09:36

RB
well done on MARS I hope my holding goes into profit at some point lol. Was just checking I bought it in June 2016 I should look at the divis I maybe in profit that way.

[c0lin1] 26/5/2020 09:34

yes thats it sporran

[2sporrans] 26/5/2020 09:32

"In our case at Aaz EV is mark cap plus cash"

Isn't EV=MC+Debt-cash?

So AAZ soething like 142+0-27=113 EV=£113mn ?

[skeptic1] 26/5/2020 09:22

Really concerning share price action here.

[bo doodak] 26/5/2020 09:18

O/T - really interesting and informative discussion

[baddeal] 26/5/2020 09:15

Gf, back to the importance of EV. It is fundamental when valuing companies as fundamentally companies should be valued based upon assets/cash flows to get to an EV. The capital structure ie equity and debt then allows the transition between EV and equity value. Debt is often fundamental to growing companies (not least aaz as had they used equity to fund the growth all those years ago shares wouldn't now be worth what they are) EV is the main valuation method used in the private equity world where the concept of market cap doesn't work as there is no free market in sharesEquity value (mkt cap in quoted company) is merely the EV less the debt, or plus the cash within the business In our case at Aaz EV is mark cap plus cash.

[riggerbeautz] 26/5/2020 09:02

Thats me out of MARS held slightly too long but happy with my profit, should have sold at the off mind.

[mr roper] 26/5/2020 08:57

I hear the Orph placing was 7 times oversubscribed. Could be a pretty strong run coming there.

[jbe81] 26/5/2020 08:53

500K shares wanted at 15.5p for ORPH!