Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[wanobi] 25/5/2020 19:34

burning off a bit of weed,,, mannnn!!!!! LOL Cheers Wan :-) LOL

[riggerbeautz] 25/5/2020 19:29

Well I’ve just took a quarter off ELY and cashed out Wallbridge again.

Been a beautiful day out there, found a new toy, spent the day burning off weeds with grass creeping through the driveway with an heat gun. No to find some alcoholic refreshment :)

[2sporrans] 25/5/2020 19:26

Hi Crazycoops

Ironically, my post was a spin off from re-reading the Hardman report, initially to make some comparisons between what they forecast a year ago and where we are a year on + how it now looks over a 5 year view.
I hadn't expected it to trigger thoughts about a lead into an evaluation of a porphyry ore body.

Your summary of the steady state production case is pretty much as mine.
In a recent post i wrote down some thoughts as to why it may be that the lives of mines - current and new - will be extended or revealed in different ways.
Like JORCed underground extensions maybe for 3/4 years at a time; JORCed new open pits may be a more open ended affair. How the lives are married up, is i guess going to determine how close AAZ may get to 10 years of lives, in dovetailed sequence and in sympathy with [changing] PSA constraints.
Do we really require full JORC assessments to have confidence there's 10 years of commercial life?
Is measured+indicated good enough to go on, especially over say years 5-10?

I think it may be more important to know what the AISC will approximate to as the existing mainstay pits go ever deeper.
E.G. in case of main pit decision to
a. Go for underground production.
b. Subsequently, Fade out of the open cast mining as the deep excavation requires too much face removal to go deeper, if not wider.
The POG will be a key arbiter obviously.

Surely there's plenty more than 5 years commercial mining, just in the existing mines + the 5 new prospects.
The costs and the margins, several years out is another matter.
But that will always apply.

Hardman estimated a discounted cashflow valuation, soley on basis of the 2019 producing mines + stockpiles/tailings, of 156p. Based upon a prospective POG of $1350/oz ; the AAZ POG 'yardstick' a year ago was a mere $1250/oz. That looks very conservative now given $1700+/oz POG.
To think that this time last year it was only ~$1290/oz !!

[saint in exile] 25/5/2020 19:21

Same here.There is defo going to be one but when.Read somewhere that all the previous recessions have been immediately preceded by a surge in the Nasdaq,which is almost as high as pre covid levels just now.Will PMs and stocks be dragged down again when the market crashes again?No idea!

[wanobi] 25/5/2020 18:36

11%, pogue, must admit I am fighting my fear of another crash right now :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[11_percent] 25/5/2020 18:31

pogue,

Indeed.....I have made some good cash recently.....but now feeling that the markets are getting toppy.

With the FED injecting cash into markets...they are now totally disconnected form the real economy which is in a recession and is likely to stay there for a few years.

[skeptic1] 25/5/2020 18:18

-2% confirmed! I kid, but only slightly...!

[wanobi] 25/5/2020 18:00

TSX:TXP up 5.9% & TSXV:PGM (PURE GOLD) up 4.7% so far today, bodes well for tomorrow :-) GLA Holders Cheers Wan :-)

[bleepy] 25/5/2020 17:22

Anglo Asian Mining PLC talks about projects on existing fields

BUSINESS
24 May 2020 11:31 (UTC+04:00)

hxxps://en.trend.az/business/economy/3243724.html

Paid access, anybody.....

[mattjos] 25/5/2020 16:16

https://www.azernews.az/business/165370.html

[mkrpan] 25/5/2020 16:14

Gold Finger, Regarding EV and Market Cap multiples. The point of EV multiples is that they take into account the level of a company's leverage and (excessive) cash. Let us say you have two companies, A and B, that are equal in everything else but the company A has EUR 100 mill debt and the company B has zero debt. If both have a market cap of EUR 500 mill, EV multiple (A's EV is EUR 600 mill / B's EV is EUR 500 mill) will show that the valuation of company B is »more attractive« than the valuation of company A (one will usually compare EV to EBITDA or EBIT, which we said are identical with both companies). Market Cap multiple will not show that. Of course, the company A will also have lower net profit than the company B, namely due to its debt (interest expense), and consequently its P/E ratio will be less attractive (higher) if both companies have a market cap of EUR 500 mill. In fact, due to the additional risk arising from financial leverage, one would epect the company A to have a lower P/E ratio than the company B. Hope this was useful. Best regards, Luka

[pjmurf] 25/5/2020 14:46

Very interesting 2S, I couldnt remember seeing zefer referenced before the RNS. It has been well worth a reread of the hardman note and I hope we get an update to it this week.

I have been folowing Mat's lead and taking a google earth tour of our mine this weekend, could someone enlighten me to what the apparent workings west of the main pit are? shows as a light cresent south of the "UG" of the "Gadir UG Portal".

[wanobi] 25/5/2020 14:30

many thanx for the heads up on that fund SiE, much appreciated, cheers Wan :-)

[crazycoops] 25/5/2020 14:10

Thanks for the post 2sporrans. That sits at the heart of my own investment thesis. With AAZ you get a gold miner that has steady state production, low AISC, strong cashflow and a policy to share profits with shareholders via dividends. Based on that alone, we are quite close to fair value based on declared LoM or cheap if you apply a more realistic 10 years to a DCF calculation. However, the exploration potential is huge. That is crystal clear from the Hardman note and the various mining reports that have subsequently been published by the company. And once it became known that corporate action was afoot, my own investment thesis switched to focusing on AAZ as an asset play. On that basis, I think we are significantly undervalued and one day we are going to wake up to a 7am RNS that tells us by how much we are undervalued. Until then, the patience of a saint is required.

[gold finger 1] 25/5/2020 13:34

Colin
Thank you for explaining what EV stands for.

But i still don't see how you can say EV is a better way to value a company over M/C.
AAZ have no debt, and about $30m in the bank.
PUR have debt of about $100m. Yes they have this money in the bank but has to be spent over the coming months to get the project up and running.


mad foetus

Well i gave up on punts a few years ago.
I thought it was a punt when the M/C was 167m pounds a few weeks before, I was not prepared to buy in at that valuation never mind todays 256m pounds.
To listen to some you would think this is a punt, LOL.
Well if PUR is worth a punt what are AAZ in the real world,at almost half the valuation.

[mad foetus] 25/5/2020 13:27

Cube have written a piece in AAZ, anyone got access and can give us a summary?

[pogue] 25/5/2020 13:13

11% a lot of similarity I agree. I must admit I am getting edgy about everything I hold now. Gold will drop if a vaccine appears for CV19, not expecting one tomorrow but even a successful phase 2 trial might spook the market to drop gold as it did recently most of the pharma will go down as well obviously good for other stocks which I am light in just now though.
However a 2nd CV19 wave will have the opposite effect, unless there is a vaccine. Lot of unknowns not so sure of where things are going so thinking start selling down and going heavily into cash.

[saint in exile] 25/5/2020 13:11

Or try Golden Precious Metals Wan.They are an investment fund on LSE with shares in a lot of those listed above so spreads the risk.

[2sporrans] 25/5/2020 11:48

THOUGHTS ON ZEFER

From the 21 May 2020 Strategic [not exploration] RNS:
“o Zefer Cell 9
-- Located 600 metres west of the leach pad processing facility
-- Very favourable geology on the mineralisation trend of the existing open pit mine with production possible from 2024
Exploration of this area is likely to take longer due to the depth of drilling from the surface, with production possibly commencing in 2025.”

TS - I’m sure we are all curious as to the deeper [pun intended] significance of Zefer.
Nothing has been advised by AAZ, as yet, to suggest it is a precusor to:

“Porphyry evaluation is planned for three years from 2021 to identify a mineral deposit suitable for mine development by 2024”

However, given the ore stratum targeted is deep [how deep is yet to be revealed], can this possibility be entertained?
X
To add to Matt’s Sat-View shot of the Zefer location, I came across this while perusing the full Hardman Report [20Jun19].
So, it is the furthest West to the flank of Gadir, noting those other 5 prospect areas where some deep drilling was completed during 2018-20.
One point of this being that there is a mineralised belt that sweeps from the main open pit, past Gadir and West to Zefer…..and beyond?






So, Zefer is located, on this Sat-view, just to the NW of the letter “P” in the “Gadir UG Portal annotation text.

Kinda on the haul road to Ugur….
Another dot for the emerging ‘Golden Arc’.
Bittibulag not shown here, though the Soviets actually mined copper and a little gold there, to the NW of Ugur.
Also Zehmet, to the immediate North of Slavyanka and Avshancli, just beyond the [green line] Contract Area perimeter.

As Matt has posted at length:
What lies deeper below?

[waldron] 25/5/2020 08:23

cheers colin

enjoy yer day

[c0lin1] 25/5/2020 08:08

as waldron has stated enterprise value

Takes in to account cash & debt which market cap doesnt.

[goodgrief] 25/5/2020 07:55

I always thought MiningMaven was Gwen Preston's handle?

[waldron] 25/5/2020 07:50

ENTERPRISE VALUE - EV seems to be near capitalised- share price value







Current
Market Cap (intraday) 5
159.58M
Enterprise Value 3
145.32M

Would guess at 142p it is fairly valued but would not be surprised if it fell back alittle tomorrow

seems to be a good long term play