Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 31/8/2017 21:54

& great to see a growing number of new posters on the thread .. welcome aboard to new investors & please feel free to ask questions / submit reasoned comment & research

[mattjos] 31/8/2017 21:22

Blimey! Been tied up all day & just checking in.Gold did fill the gap zhockey .. well done. Caught a bid immediately after so, that is a great sign.Great daily, weekly & monthly candlestick to confirm gold is now in a firm uptrend.1200 was good for us, 1300+ is absolutely terrific & copper still going also!! Silver catching up now also.Going to be a stunning H2 for AAZ with all that's going on + the impact of the plant reconfiguration.Less & less stock remaining under 30p now

[2prsimo] 31/8/2017 20:31

How this is still trading below 30p is beyond me

[brasso3] 31/8/2017 20:14

Production to commence at Ugur in the next 30 days? Not long to wait...

[jbe81] 31/8/2017 20:11

Yes, jbravo, it is a pretty good risk/reward ;)

[jbe81] 31/8/2017 20:10

Nice recovery in the price of gold

[jamiedodge] 31/8/2017 16:19

Thanks JBravo. And great recent post.

[jaspoland] 31/8/2017 14:52

JBravo,

Great post. What made me ask the question is the following article from 2012. I know things have changed a lot since then but it did give an insight into what Reza hoped for 5 years ago.

hxxps://www.thebusinessyear.com/azerbaijan-2012/gold-rush/vip-interview

[jbravo2] 31/8/2017 14:34

:)
Private? No, I don't think so. As you say, if he was going to do that he'd have done it at 4p.
Certainly his objective was to create a mid tier mining company. It's no secret, it's in all the documents you care to look at. For that he needed a listed company.
So is it still his aim?

Maybe, maybe not. It all hinges on AzerGold for me. Can mid-tier still be achieved?

Clearly first mover advantage in Azerbaijan is only valuable if AAZ are going to get an "in" on more properties than they currently have rights to. Whilst Gedabek is big, they need more than that to be mid tier.
The AIMROC companies couldn't be bid for by AAZ as there was too much murky stuff about ownership and unsold product. I'm sure I don't need to spell it out.
So AzerGold was created to buy AIMROC.
Now what is AzerGold's next move?
Do they operate their own stuff?
Do they operate some of the sites? Do they look for help with some ore they currently can't treat?
Do they simply pass everything on to firms like AAZ?
This still isn't clear. They are not producing from Chovdar yet. They've at least managed to sell the products they got from AIMROC. They're getting the site ready for production certainly. What sort of production? Just heap leach like before? Do they have any sulphide ore? Do they have copper?

In short, if they're going to go it alone and produce from all their own sites then they may want to buy AAZ for the plant. For the scale. For the knowledge.
Do some digging around on LinkedIn, they have quite a few employees. I've talked about this with matt a bit and as he rightly pointed out to me... this may just be a mindset thing i.e. ex Russia, bureaucracy etc but it's a lot to support off 40koz/yr. But its a state company perhaps its resigned to losing money for a few years?

For me, if they don't want us I'm not sure anyone else would.
So what if we are left to go it alone?
Then, for me, the case is for maximising Gedabek (which has undoubtedly started anyway) and we start to look for opportunities in other countries too.
Even on this alone we are underpriced, this is the joy of this share.
Even with the worst scenario I can come up with, the share price will be heading higher.

But with the better scenarios then things are really going to fly here.
We'll know soon enough I guess.
Either way, the share price is certainly only heading up a lot over the next year as debt evaporates.

[graylyn1] 31/8/2017 14:26

Thought the chart looked good! the 50 week moving average has just crossed up through the 200 week "golden cross"

[friendzarin] 31/8/2017 14:19

Exactly Jbe. As and when £1 is reached it should then command a premium. Some time to wait yet though.

[jbe81] 31/8/2017 13:49

There was a time when Reza would have sold for less than £1 a share with gold and copper rising don't know if he might want a lot more now, I do !

[jaspoland] 31/8/2017 13:49

Ok thanks JBravo, I asked for that I guess :)

Well for what its worth I don't think Reza is interesting in taking the company private himself as he's had plenty of opportunity to do so in recent years, at a much cheaper price. I believe his ambition has been to build AAZ into a middle tier mining company and it seems with the progress currently being undertaken we're on our way towards that target.

There are many companies out there looking for acquisitions in this arena and with PM's entering possibly another bull market you would think AAZ would be venerable to a cheeky bid at this stage, albeit, on an agreed basis. I've even contemplated emailing them about AAZ lol.

I know some of you have met with him personally hence asking if he had ever hinted what his end games was. Maybe he has heir's to take over the baton but surely he will be looking to retirement at some point.

[celeritas] 31/8/2017 13:21

People dont often look at the aaz gallery but it does give an idea of the scope and where the company is moving. Bittibulag is ongoing, hopefully another mine to progress into another producer.

[friendzarin] 31/8/2017 13:01

I think we need to revisit this argument whe we hit £1 ;0)

[jbravo2] 31/8/2017 12:39

Depends on the offer surely?
Who wouldn't sell at Xp if it's high enough?
So the question is... what is Xp and does anyone want to pay it?

What do you think?

[jaspoland] 31/8/2017 12:30

Question for those that may have met him. Does anyone know what Reza's end game is? He's getting towards 65 now and I'm sure he will want to enjoy a happy and long retirement. With approx 30% of the company, as it currently stands, he holds all the cards. Would an offer for the company tempt him? Thoughts please

[jbravo2] 31/8/2017 12:25

@jamiedodge, russlench

Matt was simply referencing the PSA (production sharing agreement - you can read it following the link in the header)
Finance costs are recoverable as a cost of production.
Keeping some debt is wise in many business cases. Be that flexibility or just that you're confident you make more on it than the bank charge you of course.
Anyway, certainly as we lower our debt it will make sense to ensure we increase our cash holdings to create a safety buffer. The last thing you want is to pay off your debt just as you find you need to arrange more debt for a bill that has just become due thereby incurring more arrangement fees etc. That is going to happen naturally here if things stay the same though.
We will make our last AL plant loan repayments in under a year. That currently costs $2.5m/qtr. We won't be debt free at that point though. We will still probably owe a few million on other loans. So logically I don't expect all that $2.5m to then go to those loans. More to be building cash reserves/being targeted on new CAPEX.

Past that though there is no real inherent reason in the PSA to keep some debt. Sure it is recovered, but its simply money being paid to a bank rather than split between us and the govt.
It certainly isn't the case though, as russ posted, that once we have paid off the debt we become liable for all operating costs. Those will remain recoverable no matter what our debt position.

[russlench] 31/8/2017 11:28

Isn't it because there's an agreement that the Az government share the operating/production costs, if all of the debt is paid back then AAZ would be entirely responsible for these?

This is just from memory so happy to be corrected.

[jamiedodge] 31/8/2017 10:57

Mattjos. Wasn't there a reason not to pay off the total debt. I'm sure you mentioned it before.

[bleepy] 31/8/2017 10:18

Mattjos

A copper/price chart in the header perhaps, also a link to the conference paper Aug17 titled FLOATATION AND LEACHING AT ANGLO ASIAN MINING GEDABEK GOLD AND COPPER MINE IN AZERBAIJAN detailing their innovative plant reconfiguration with projected annual savings of $20,000/day, or over $7 million per year.

[friendzarin] 31/8/2017 09:32

There were some meteoric bursts in 2010/11 when the share price went to 80 pence from similar levels in what seemed like a three or four month period. Any holders around at tha time that have any comments about the trading activity/ m m performance then?

[graylyn1] 31/8/2017 09:23

Jbravo2 yes that makes sense, just thinking out aloud! This is just way to cheap imo maybe half year figs will set things off. Copper is on fire.

[jbravo2] 31/8/2017 09:16

Sorry graylyn I just don't agree, unless it is at a significant premium. Like £1. That much of a premium.

The games are heightened at the moment but that won't last as eventually the buyer will have reached the position he wants then the MM's won't be playing to his agenda.
I think we're fairly close to that time as it's been going on for several months now.

We're paying debt down rapidly and don't need to give away part of the company at 35 or 40p when it's going to be worth much more than that inside 12 months anyway.
The amount of debt we pay off in H2 is going to be great.

[graylyn1] 31/8/2017 09:09

Tiny free float here hence the mm games, maybe aaz should issue some shares perhaps enough to pay off the remaining debt. I realise of course that the debt is being paid down rapidly but this would give some more liquidity to the stock. I would imagine that such a share issue would be snapped up even at a small premium.
Any thoughts?