Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 14:53

My point was that by accumulating the first 30 per cent at low levels you got a cerca 80 per cent discount on the first 30percent, stating the obvious I know.
Time will tell, at the time I was 100 per cent convinced, now it is less than 100 per cent, but it is far from impossible.

[jbravo2] 08/12/2016 14:45

Good chat today. As I recall when you offered your thoughts jbe the only bit I said I didn't think was happening was that someone would be accumulating stock here prior to offering for the co.
I saw there was no need, you only have to convince two people to sell up and you've effectively got the company anyway.
I've changed my mind that that could now be happening and am now persuaded a large buyer or buyers could have accumulated large amounts of stock. Notice I say could. Edit: oh but theres no way anyone could get 30%. The float is only 50%.

One thing I have never said no to is a tie up somehow in the country.

Do we help AzerGold? Do they buy us? Do we get some of the properties?
I'm not sure, but it makes no sense for all our expertise to be kept separate from the new properties entirely. It makes no sense for two small organisations to run two separate sets of management in the same country in the same business, just 30mi apart.
It makes no sense that AzerGold is suddenly very quiet about its work. Its clearly being set up to be a company of good news for the country. It was proclaimed as it was formed. It was in the press. It clearly isn't going to be a big secret like the last time.
But it still has a website under construction. That's taking a long time isn't it?
They've employed a lot of senior management figures. LinkedIn will show you that.
It's all very intriguing. And the current silence is the biggest giveaway. It's not been set up to be silent. And yet it is. Currently.

I imagine when that changes we will know what's going on.



As for the holdings here... Posters on ADVFN holding 3-5% brasso? And the rest. I know matt and I hold more than the bottom estimate between us.
I go with closer to matt's call of 10%.

[mattjos] 08/12/2016 14:44

zhockey .. what would you do?
shell out for new plant & equipment, recruit new staff (who will likely not even believe they would get paid) and go through the whole 15 year learning curve?
the last attempt to shirt-cut the process by inexperienced people was a disaster. The old mine manager has been interviewed as saying just this.

[zhockey] 08/12/2016 14:37

Considering the finances of the country in a low oil price environment, I do not believe they would shell out £100M+ for AAZ. They already have Chovdar to deal with and who knows how much that cost.

Our best hope for rerating is through exploration IMO.

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 14:31

Is certainly well over 5 percent

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 14:27

And since AAZ was at 4p how many shares have been traded?

And yes the amount of shares held by long term holders here with no intention of trading is quite something and a reason this will rise very quickly.

[brasso3] 08/12/2016 14:22

There is only 40% of the stock in free float so there is no way anyone can accumulate 30%. I would imagine the posters on ADVFN account for 3 - 5% of that free float.

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 14:13

And as an average if you got some sub 10p and a lot at sub 20p and some sub 30p, that leaves room for some at sub 40p and sub 50p

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 14:11

There has been substantial buying since 4p, at once stage there were 100k trades at least once a day for 3 months, would be easily possible. Bashirov was really within the rules was he, might mean somebody else would be less inclined to be. Anyway it was about a month ago I posted my thoughts(maybe longer, you commented on them at the time), maybe jbravo wants to offer his today..

[mattjos] 08/12/2016 14:00

jbe .. "Assuming Azergold was taking over the company and bought the first 30 per cent at an average of sub 30p"

not sure how you can think that ... I don't see how any one person or entity can have amassed anything like that stake.

I do think though the company might suggest to its advisors that a 'reminder' RNS re declaration of Holdings obligations might be a sensible idea.

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 13:58

The reason to buy here is the value not the hope of a takeover

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 13:57

Agreed Matt

[mattjos] 08/12/2016 13:50

However things play out here in coming months, the immediate driver for me seems to be undervaluation to peers and the strengthening financial position of the company. That will become even more apparent for those persuaded to wait for a P/E ratio to make their minds up, available May 2017 when the final results come out but, by then, the company will be virtually half way through its 2017 year and have taken a further $5m off its ATB loan.

Outwith the simple mathematics of the undervaluation, the company is clearly in a good position in terms of continuing to lower its production costs, expanding its resources, paying off its debt & play some part in a regional expansion of the pm mining sector.

I think these are plenty of reasons for some temporary weakness in pog not to derail the re-rating in the mkt cap and sentiment towards the company & its prospects (be that sentiment in the market or sentiment from others).

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 13:50

Anyway some nice debate here today

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 13:43

I was convinced of a takeover a month or so ago, 100 per cent, and posted my thoughts here. At the time no one agreed with me. Maybe Jbravo has now come around to this way of thinking. I did ask Stephen Westhead and John Monhemius about Azergold at the proactive presentation, and they said it would be down to the board to get the best value for shareholders in the event of Azergold taking over AAZ (they in no way implied this was going to happen, and was only something I asked at the end of the conversation after I had asked how Azergold was developing in the country).

Assuming Azergold was taking over the company and bought the first 30 per cent at an average of sub 30p, how much would Reza and John Sununu sell for? £1.20? £1.30? £1.50?
As everybody knows here the company is extremely undervalued, but if you think gold is going to skyrocket now is the time to buy, no way Reza would sell at that price if gold is over $1500. At these sort of prices I think Azergold would get a great deal but with the current share price might be tempting, of course may here are hoping for well north of £2 a share, but all depends on price of gold

[zhockey] 08/12/2016 13:27

Matt, what you say is correct, but it was equally true after the US election and the company lost 1/3 of it's value! I guess the cost reductions played a part but IMO it was gold sentiment that was the major driver of the share price this year and until we get some solid data on expansion, this will continue to be the case IMO.

JBE, are you suggesting an imminent TO? I would doubt that because AAZ are in a position to add a lot of value of the next year through exploration. Based on the current proven reserves would any offer present an attractive option to the board?

[brasso3] 08/12/2016 13:15

Careful jbe81!

[bleepy] 08/12/2016 13:14

Anglo Asian Mining increases resources and reserves of gold in Azerbaijan and prepares for their production.

Well worth a repeat....


Baku, Fineko/abc.az. Country’s only gold producer, Anglo-Asian Mining plc, disagrees with on the issue of the estimates concerning the reduction of production of gold resources in the country.

The Company has made a statement especially for abc.az:

“Anglo Asian Mining plc continues to increase its resources and reserves of gold and copper. The recent news article regarding a small reduction in production for 2016 (by only 2.8%) has no connection with the gold reserves of the AIMC operating company. This reduction will have no effect on the management of the reserves, and recent positive exploration results continue to provide additional resources of gold to be converted to reserves for mining going forward. AIMC has recently connected the new power supply to the production operation has thereby strengthened its gold production position going forward contrary to a collapse of gold production.”

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 13:03

Zhockey I think the connection to the grid will help. The lower production was in part down to not being able to run the second sag mil on generators (as well as the lower grades). Anyway there is a chance we wont have to worry about any of it!

[mattjos] 08/12/2016 13:00

zhockey, I think you are on wrong page at present.
Whilst those factors are of course relevant, the simple glaring undervaluation of the company, as it stands today, is reason enough for the market cap to keep climbing.
Based on its book value, its asset value, its cash flow etc etc .. it is simply too cheap compared to just about anything else on the market.
Discrepancies do occur in the market but, unless every single other pm miner in London is going to drop to a valuation similar to AAZ, it seems more likely that AAZ will continue to rise towards an average of its peer group.

[zhockey] 08/12/2016 12:54

As I have said many times before, two factors will drive this, the gold price and expansion. I'm not sure when they will be in a position to report on the potential of Ugur and Bittibulag, or what the gold price is going to do in the short term. But in the absence of the former and the latter struggling, I think we may have to endure some more volatility.

It will also be interesting to see what prod forecast we get for next year, if Gadir is going through a low grade patch the figure may disappoint the market.

[terropol] 08/12/2016 12:47

Good of the company to put press right....
Mattjos, our emails worked....

[jbe81] 08/12/2016 12:36

I was starting to doubt myself jbravo ;)

[bsg] 08/12/2016 11:34

I think some of the 'professionals' sold at resistance (34p), the last time paid particularly well

[jbravo2] 08/12/2016 10:55

I think wrighty has it right. :)
More and more of the stock has clearly been bought by people who have worked out what the goal is.
As such, they won't be selling here or indeed at 40p. They, like me, are waiting for developments.

The price is going to have move significantly north to tempt some of them to sell enough for our large buyer(s?).
They have been patiently acquiring more and more for weeks and months. I don't ever expect to see an RNS stating 3% though.
Yes, jbe, I now think the same as you.

I think matt may be right in that they may try and hold it here for a while though. They'll try and bore some out. The only way that won't happen is if the buyer feels under pressure from others snaffling his stock.

What a game!

Lovely!