Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[martincc] 13/11/2015 14:29

May be too early to predict a turnaround but worth keeping an eye on trades.
1 mm moved up to 5p bid at 14:00, 1 mm left on offer 5.25p (then 3 @ 6.5p)
Can buy at 5.1p at the moment.

[cyberbub] 13/11/2015 13:33

I agree jbravo as mentioned above. If the company is now genuinely making $2m+ per month cash flow then everything is clover... I guess we will find out with the next quarterly results in Jan.

[jbravo2] 11/11/2015 19:23

The money due before year end is in the majority payments to ATB. Payments are made on the 16th of Feb, May, Aug and Nov from memory. Clearly we made Aug's and lacking any announcement come the 16th we will be able to say we made November too. That is payment 4 of a 15 payment schedule.
The AZ banks will make up the rest but we are on a reduced payment there til year end (see previous RNS')
It is my guess Reza's loan will be rolled over slightly longer than the current due date of Jan.

[bsg] 11/11/2015 14:19

buyers getting below mid, can't sell any on line. Not good.

[cyberbub] 11/11/2015 13:51

PS my dummy trades suggest that all 3 small trades today are buys...

[cyberbub] 11/11/2015 13:50

I can't sell a sausage at the moment without going to NT... However, at the same time I can only buy 150k shares too... so not a huge amount available to buy... very illiquid of course with such a high proportion held by directors and large PIs... We need some good news in the coming few weeks, and then the illiquidity may start working in our favour...GLA

[cyberbub] 11/11/2015 07:55

I maintain that Vaziri will just extend his loan another few months, if the commercial loan needs to be repaid as a higher priority... If the company is now making a couple of million or more cash flow per month, then this should be no big deal...

[cyberbub] 11/11/2015 07:17

Aha, I will hold my hand up and say that I didn't realise that there was a different loan due 31.12.15...

[mattjos] 11/11/2015 06:19

Gedabek is still the only substantive Producing gold mine in Az & it is a stated govt intent to build the nations gold reserves so, a visit from the president to inaugurate increased production should be a serious possibility.Whilst Chovdar is reputed to have a bigger potential resource, it has gone very very quiet there over the last 3 years since production was reported as having started off a very significant investment. Seems very odd, particularly as it is so close to Gedabek, that we hear virtually nothing .. For some reason Chovdar is excused the need to report its production like AAZ does every month.

[cordwainer] 11/11/2015 03:42

.. some Presidents attend the strangest ceremonies. And a presidential visit benefits the shareholders by ... making the workers happy and bolstering government support for the company maybe. As long as nothing goes wrong.

[mattjos] 11/11/2015 00:14

It's not Vaziri's loan that's the issue .. The Accts show $5m due payable by 31.12.15 to one of the commercial lenders .. That is the issue, imo, that requires resolution within the timescales before the mkt will look forward.At this juncture of the company debt. I would like to see a monthly operations update with regards the new plant & it's operation .. It does not have to be financial .. Just an Ops update to show progress to plan eg. At what point the contractors hand over operation to the local workforce, the recovery rates achieved, proving of the circuit, switching on of the crushers, commencement of the sulphide ore processing etc.Let's see what the local press report in the next few days & if, perhaps, they might get the Az president to visit site and inaugurate the new plant in an official ceremony (as they did with the SART plant)

[cyberbub] 10/11/2015 22:10

Exactly Brasso, hence why I reckon it should be no problem to repay Vaziri's $3.9M loan on 31/12... let's see...

And don't forget the copper and silver :-)

[cyberbub] 10/11/2015 21:36

Brasso/cordwainer, good posts from you, it would be nice to think that if your predictions are accurate, we might be breaking 10p by the next quarterly results?...

Obviously that will depend on the POG not collapsing, and no nasty surprises... that's the risk of investing...

NAI

[cyberbub] 10/11/2015 21:25

Vaziri's loan is hardly likely to be called in on 31/12 if AAZ haven't got the cash... why would he bring down his own company?! If it comes to it, he will extend the loan.Having said that, I don't think there will be any problem paying it off.And actually it is not a $5M loan... The last RNS showed that 'only' $3.9M was drawn down...NAI

[mattjos] 09/11/2015 21:25

Bras so .. I am not yet assuming any copper uplift. At present they are only re-processing the Agitation tailings through the flotation circuits.It will take time to optimise the circuit & achieve the target combined 90% recovery rate.Only once the circuits is proven & they switch in the grinders to then start processing the sulphide ore do I anticipate the copper uplift ... But, will happily be proven wrong on this assumption.All I want to see between now and end of the year is the circuit to be proven, the gold recovery rate to move up to the 85-90% area, proof that the elevated CAPEX is over and that the improved cashflow sees them able to comfortably pay off the $5m due payable by 31/12.In the absence of formal news confirming these facts, I would interpret their switching on the grinders as proof by itself that they are on top of all these points.

[brasso3] 09/11/2015 20:20

One week now until we get the October production figures. I am hoping for 6500 - 6800oz which I think is a fair prediction. The copper may be the biggest surprise though as Matt keeps pointing out...

Recent Gold production:-
Jul - 207.4 Kg (6668 oz)
Aug - 185.5 Kg (5963 oz)
Sep - 171.4 Kg (5510 oz)

[cordwainer] 09/11/2015 15:31

re cyberbub 6 Nov: I tend to assume ongoing debt servicing costs and perhaps debt renewal facilities rather than outright paying off all debts in a short timescale. After all, the project rate of return ought to beat the cost of capital.

I think p/e of 8 far too high for a junior gold miner with a single contract area - make it 5 at the most - in a normal market too. I roughly estimate about $12 million net profit for 16/17, call it 10p eps. I think any development/investment costs are lumped in with the cost of sales though, but maybe copper sales will cover forward investment costs in the project. In short, I think you'd have to be really pessimistic to not see good potential for significant upside.

[cyberbub] 07/11/2015 22:03

Also need to remember that although AAZ's debt level is high compared to its current market cap, the interest is easily covered, so there seems little risk of the company's debt being called in. We have been told that banking covenants are all OK.NAI DYOR

[cyberbub] 07/11/2015 17:45

The highly marginal producers will indeed be forced to mothball and/or go bust... leading to supply falls and POG price support... hopefully AAZ is not highly marginal, although obviously it would be good if the POG would stay around these levels at least...

[jeanesy2] 07/11/2015 17:16

The problem is that the POG is now unlikely to rise in the short term and as a gold producer with a large debt it is unlikely that the market will treat this turn around company any more favourably than the rest. Some companies are bound to struggle to make ends meat and some will have to be mothballed at best imo.

[brasso3] 07/11/2015 14:37

Matt

I agree and I am probably one of the worst for omitting the copper in my posts. :)

I like to ignore it as I anticipate it will be a nice surprise for year end and almost definitely 2016.

[mattjos] 07/11/2015 14:18

So much focus on the Gold ... But look at the Coper that the Agitation plant will bring us!

[cyberbub] 07/11/2015 10:07

I agree Brasso in broad terms. I have always had a slight niggle about the AISC though, and the Az government's "share"....

[brasso3] 07/11/2015 09:35

We know operational costs were $736 in H1 and likely to be lower in H2 just from existing production facilities. The introduction of the floatation plant from Q4 will probably bring overall costs down by another $50 an ounce. We also have the high grade ore to look forward to from Gadir. It is highly likely that there will be another currency devaluation in Azerbaijan to AAZs benefit. In 2016 I therefore expect costs to come down to $600 an ounce. AAZ clearly have a future even with gold as low as $1000/oz.

[luminoso] 07/11/2015 09:04

The share price is ridiculously low due to market sentiment for miners/producers. POG plays a big part in that market sentiment. Hopefully that will change sooner than I think.