Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jeanesy2] 02/11/2015 08:30

The reported spread is ridiculous. No-one will be buying or selling at those prices!

[brasso3] 02/11/2015 08:20

The charts were pointing to this upwards movement. In T trade range now for the October production update.

[jeanesy2] 02/11/2015 08:03

Up 8.7% on no news or volume.. strange?

[cyberbub] 02/11/2015 08:03

Odd. The offer price has blown out to 7p on zero trades... is there a big buy order in?

[brasso3] 02/11/2015 07:04

Matt

Do you know why the RNS do not appear on this thread?

[cyberbub] 01/11/2015 18:16

Yes, I've had a quick look at SHG's recent Q3 figures, and they have similar gold output, similar net debt levels, and broadly similar reserves as far as I can see.

Where they differ is:

* SHG has $11M cash in the bank... 'net' debt is the same as AAZ, but I suppose having actual hard cash in the bank is a bit more of a safety net.
* Their cash costs and AISC are a couple of hundred dollars lower.
* SHG is in a more stable country.

* AAZ outputs substantial amounts of other metals on top of its gold, which add a fair bit to revenue and seem to be profitable.

I haven't had time yet to look at the position with SHG's royalty/PSA with the Tanzania government, I will try to do that later if I get the chance.

-- Do the differences above justify a 5-fold difference in market cap? --

No advice intended

[cyberbub] 01/11/2015 17:39

UMD, I mentioned a credible comparator the other day in SHG. Similar gold production levels (I don't think Shanta output any other metals), similar debt levels... and several times AAZ's market cap! I think their cash costs are slightly lower. I don't know what their reserve levels are (perhaps I should DMOR!). Obviously Tanzania might be perceived as a slightly less ropey country.

My view on AAZ is that while there is clearly considerable risk remaining, a market cap of £6M is ludicrous. If we were at £30M then I might be thinking that it was coming into the fair-value range. It seems to me that as long as the POG doesn't dip below $1000 say, the company should be making decent positive cashflow, now that the major capex has finished.

One thing I have been a bit concerned about is whether the management (who hold well over 30% together, and several of whom, particularly Vaziri, clearly have some wealth) might decide to take out the equity holders at this very low valuation, to try and keep all the future upside for themselves? I wouldn't mind if they offered 20p per share, but I suspect they would try to get away with 5-6p... or might even announce a de-listing and then pick up blocks of shares from panicked PIs at 3p or less? I know that's a bit Machiavellian, but this is AIM...

Any thoughts?

[umd] 01/11/2015 12:34

Hi Mattjos - managed to read the admission prospectus (late by 10 years I know!). Gives considerable comfort that reserves are not an issue. The drivers forward which you have been highlighting admirably are the return to profitability and positive cash flows. My concern remains is that even with that would we get a decent valuation. Why? First its location may put investors off. Secondly the PSA means that it is always going to be subject to the vagaries of the Azerbaijan govt. With such factors institutional demand may be limited. Do you know current institutional holdings? Also there does not appear to be an active investor relations arm as we had at WCC for example. I am not that concerned about the POG because even at its current level we should make money. Do you know what other similar gold producers are going for either as PE basis or imputed value using POG and reserves? Apologies I haven't researched what other companies are fetching as yet. Happy to be challenged on my concerns. Cheers UMD

[cyberbub] 01/11/2015 11:32

Fair enough HB. I agree that the AAZ chart looks 'perky' as you put it... seems like a 'bowl' forming to me... it's especially important to note that (uncommonly for AIM shares) there has been virtually no equity dilution in the last few years since the share price was much higher...Let's see what happens with the POG though...NAI

[horneblower] 01/11/2015 09:34

cyberbub,
I'm the wrong person to ask about fundamentals.
I do charts.

[cyberbub] 31/10/2015 20:18

Horneblower, what's your view on the AAZ fundamentals, out of interest?

[brasso3] 30/10/2015 20:48

The chart is looking ready for a move up again. The 14 day RSI has now dropped below 20 (over sold).

[mattjos] 30/10/2015 15:18

Hi hornblower ... Nice to hear from you. Haven't seen you around for ages

[jeanesy2] 30/10/2015 15:17

looks to me that gold is going nowhere. It has been range bound for so long now. I am fed up of people saying it is only a matter of time before the price explodes upwards. Im still waiting.. Cant see it myself!

[horneblower] 30/10/2015 14:27

Hi Mattjos.
This chart does look perky.
However, I am not bullish on gold. The long term chart suggests it is still too high imo, although in the shorter term, with rising highs and lows, it might creep back above 1200 for a while.

[luminoso] 29/10/2015 09:58

Yep, Manhattan is talking Gold down again with all its endless speculation about the Fed raising rates in Dec.
Every time we get economic news that makes it unlikely, they turn on the manipulation again. They need it to stay this low for a bit longer, apparently. But when it blows......?

[brasso3] 29/10/2015 07:02

Gold at $1160. Gap closed. :)

[cyberbub] 29/10/2015 00:20

You can say that again - smacked down by the crooks once more, it seems...

[brasso3] 28/10/2015 14:37

Gold at $1182 now. It looks like there is a gap that needs to close at $1168 though.

[mattjos] 28/10/2015 10:39

Not overly concerned about the P&L profit figure at this stage .. It's the cashflow coming from the combined recovery processes that is the most important factor for the short term ... Once the paltry $5m is paid by year end then any remaining doubters should see the compelling undervaluation

[jbe81] 28/10/2015 10:04

Looks like we could get a nice rise with a bit of buying, hopefully gold goes through 1200 this week and generates a bit of interest

[brasso3] 28/10/2015 09:29

The 2 month chart is looking really good now for a rise.

Gold looking perky and ready to have a go at $1200.

[brasso3] 28/10/2015 09:12

2 weeks until the next production update.

I think a conservative 7000oz gold is likely with the possibility of 7500oz.

7000 x ($1120 - $736) = $2.68m profit for October.

Add in the silver and copper and $3m - $3.5m is more realistic.

[bumpa33] 28/10/2015 08:27

looks like the bargain hunters were in town at 5.5p - but found the shops were all but bare...! The only mm playing ball were Cantors but for minimal size. Nice base to be forming from.

[cyberbub] 27/10/2015 23:58

I just voted up your post luminoso LOL