Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[winston66] 04/6/2020 07:07

Very well read guys :)

[wanobi] 04/6/2020 06:54

Good morning all, Good luck and Good Health today :-) Cheers Wan :-)



Gold at 1703
Brent at 39.26

OPEC+ shaken over IRAQ Oil cheating apparently :-) LOL,,, who knows!!
Only cut 500kB/d and not the agreed 1m/d....

Saudi & Russia in agreement, but, trying to bring the laggards in line I hear...
IRAQ, Nigeria, KAZ etc...

No meeting today,,, probably now the original date 9-10th June....

Floating Storage / Land Based Storage very slowly reducing,,,, $35 Brent seen as correct price right now by Oil analysts...

Demand recovering very slowly,,,, China buying spree has increased inventory, but demand is still lagging as the economy is only slowly coming back...

[the stigologist] 04/6/2020 06:52

There is no such thing as fully funded in biotech r&d stage (that's why PYC is a good R&D 'picks and shovels' play)

And certainly not in a global pandemic

Plus Avacta basically lied in April 18p placing (2 placings in 2 days)

Why would you trust these clowns on finances?

I just think the science trumps their financing incompetence

[wanobi] 04/6/2020 06:45

Good morning all, Good luck and Good Health today :-) Cheers Wan :-)



Gold at 1703
Brent at 39.26

[bleepy] 03/6/2020 23:47

2wks to agm, expect a flurry of news leading up to...

[macmuck] 03/6/2020 21:50

I thought Alistair @ Avacta made it quite plan in the presentation about a month ago that the company will fully funded until 2022! I guess we will find out whether we can trust him in the morning.
Mattjos. I made a list the other day of metals and miners while on a two week stockopedia trial. I remember your distaste for them given their treatment of AAZ.
Notepadded any value ranks over 80. A decent starter if you want me to PM them to you let me know!

[skeptic1] 03/6/2020 21:18

Hardman and co note tomorrow mark my words! Maybe...

[wanobi] 03/6/2020 20:20

TXP - 11% up across the pond KS :-),,, I'm getting butterflies now LOL GLA Holders,,,,,,,, Cheers Wan :-)


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[pogue] 03/6/2020 19:33

cheers Wan OPEC+ are talking a good game, once they get everyone in their group to actually do what they say they maybe onto something :0)
I think their plan to stop shale producing wont work too well as shalers will produce at less than cost as their largest fixed overheads ie their debt is not going away so better to get $40 a barrel than nothing. I don't see them drilling new wells mind you so natural tailing off will happen but that is not that significant overall.
Finely balanced but the massive amount of crude in ships, storage tanks, milk bottles etc will as the article says will cover any shortfalls short term.

[2sporrans] 03/6/2020 19:02

Ta very much e43

SPA say $35mn FCF for 2020 based on ~$1650/oz POG.

They also predict $40mn cash in bank :0)

Not a few of us here hope for another 0.5c top up to the October divi.
making 4c and 8.5c for next year in total, if the final D stays at 4.5c

[fozzie] 03/6/2020 18:37

PPC - It may work out but glad i sold around 12p yonks ago. Bit of a mess and squillions of shares now in issue.

[e43] 03/6/2020 18:29

Tyou 2sp,and remember also ,last years free cash flow was $25m at an average gold price of only $1410, if you assume an avg of over $1600 this year all other things being equal that may equate to a free cash flow of over $40m so nearly 30p per share for a debt free company with already 20p per share sitting in the bank,doesn't sound too bad!

[someuwin] 03/6/2020 17:54

PPC Subscription, Placing and primary Bid offer at 1.85p.Vs Cureent 2.4p

Trafigura (2019 turnover US$171.5 billion) increasing holding in PPC to 18.3%

[baddeal] 03/6/2020 17:54

Gold futures again tested down to 1700 today but seem to be holding even though equities strong again.So we seem to have a good floor and even with the higher aisc, looking good for 1000+/oz margins Now spa - go sell that story to fund managers please

[wanobi] 03/6/2020 17:42

Short Positions - TXP, line 3507 on the latest spreadsheet,,,, seems a very useful link :-) Cheers Wan :-)



22 may 2020 - Consolidated Short Position Report

Security Issue Name Symbol Exchange Code No.Shares Net Change
TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION INC. TXP TSX 1034444 -46638

Will be interesting to see the next report....

GLA Holders
Cheers
Wan :-)

[2sporrans] 03/6/2020 17:40

Just a couple of comments: One on the declining production and lives of mines, the other on perceived mine closure risk.

Get the PERCEIVED closure risk out the way first:
It may be, that some holders have been reading up on the virus stats and been a bit
spooked out by them.
On other hand, maybe few holders are bothered or have even noticed.

From a situation in April where the infected pool fell to ever smaller size, May
has seen infections rise rapidly to a level fully 3* what they were at the late March-early April peak, when lockdown commenced.
As the Azerzis are now testing at about the level of Sweden or Finland, i guess some of the surge in infections detected during May-June must be down to this.
Yet, the deaths have also risen, around double what they were a few weeks back and deaths lag infections obviously.
Well, won't be surprised if i bag another honourary red falg or 2 for pointing this out.

Just felt i ought to pass on what i've observed though prob. a thankless task.
Not fazed myself; the mines are pretty remote from large towns and strict entry process.

On the production:
The 3 main mines:

While Ugur, in it's current form, is nearing end of life, it is not evident that
Gedabek-Gadir is.
What we have there is more a problem with it becoming gradually harder and more expensive to extract ores as go deeper.
Particularly true for the main pit as an ever greater ratio of rock stripping to
ore access is required the deeper it goes.
There seems to also be a slow decline in grades although nothing drastic.
The above reflects in the rising AISC.
It was ~$590/oz for 2019 [~$540 at the 2018 low from memory].
SPA have assumed a creep up in their note; so $634 assumed for this year, ~$660 for next.

Even $660/oz is low cost and AAZ will prob. still make the best quartile of producers on that.
And we know the ongoing margins are terrific!!

Still, the combination of the above + lack of JORC/LOM addition/extension reports since March 2019 don't help sell AAZ to new investors or some holders for that matter.

My take fwliw is that the recent strategic update strongly indicates there will be
substantial additions to the JORC reserves of Gedabek-Gadir; further, the 5 new mine prospects are very 'real'.
Management are always conservative in what they tell us and i doubt they would say these prospects a likely to make it into commercial production unless they have good reason to believe this.
I do think that a lot is going to ride on the gold rich prospects and especially
Avshancli+Gilar.

Run out of time and other stuff to do.
Hope some the the above a little help to someone.

[wanobi] 03/6/2020 16:57

AVCT - commercially the CEO is not very savvy and I would say easily lead by others so I wouldn't put any certainty on what's said in regard to finances from him,,,, scientifically, hopefully he is a genius :-) GLA Cheers Wan :-)

many thanx for heads up Bumpa & your support 2P :-) cheers Wan :-)

and a big thanx to all for your posts today,,, quality :-) Cheers Wan :-)

[mattjos] 03/6/2020 16:55

CNG train gradually pulling away from the station .. hopefully a few more days to let the pressure build just under 15p

[wanobi] 03/6/2020 16:53

as soon as the sun goes away Gold loses its shine,,,, best check the weather forecast to determine when next to buy more goldies :-) LOL LOL Cheers Wan :-)

[gold finger 1] 03/6/2020 16:40

6% yield now.

[gold finger 1] 03/6/2020 16:36

bozzy

Most mines Have lower production year on year as the mine life comes to an end.
I can't see why you were hoping to see some new processing facilities this summer/autume? You have to get the jorc out first to say that the life of mine has been increased and the grades. No one would spend money first on plant then hope the
Jorc comes in showing plenty of ore is there.
Things have to be done in order, you just can't run a business anyway you like.

[gold finger 1] 03/6/2020 16:00

Skeptic

SO you must think its clear that the market is happy with the way companies are losing money every day. so are marking their share price up.
What is happening is madness, and sooner or later it will all be shown they got it wrong.
I am not one bit worried what is happening to the share price
In fact i am still waiting for a lump sum to put in here.
This delay and drop over the last few weeks has worked in my favor for a change.

[bozzy_s] 03/6/2020 15:49

I think the latest update is still being absorbed by the market, and by shareholders. As positive as the long term outlook is, overall production is still on a downwards trajectory.

Realistically we're looking at 2019, 2020, 2021 and perhaps 2022 with lower year-on-year output.

I was hoping we'd see some new processing facilities this summer / autumn. Then 2021 onwards would hopefully see our company start to grow again.

The share price action has been reasonably fair I'd say, given the latest update.

Of course the lower the price goes, the better the market-leading dividend yield. I'll be adding if we get to the 80-100p range.

Very fair comments by JBravo above. If you believe the company will run out of ore in 2024/25, sell. If you believe they have enough to get through to the 2030s when PSAs expire, hold or buy. If you believe the PSAs will be extended and other mines brought online, buy.

[gold finger 1] 03/6/2020 15:43

Lefrene

Well i can't see many PI's pumping money into the markets.
There has been very good money to be made that is a fact.
But no way are these companies valued right.
Time will tell.

But i have to say this is all playing out to how the experts said it would.