Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[2sporrans] 09/12/2018 10:05

welcome zangdook.

as for the jewish lobby and netanyahu's thumb:

,,.....but i know that israel does not stand alone. i know that america stands with israel,, [bn quote]

but ain't Bibi feeling the heat a little of late?
those bribery charges seem to have him and his missus rattled:



tut tut.
shouldn't have tried those tricks at home bibi.


bettcha he comes out laughing though....yet again.

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 09:57

plenty of Gold bulls out there;

Gold To Hit New All-Time Record Highs In 2019 (On Route To A $5,000 – $10,000 Price Range Later On) April 21, 2018 49 5079
“Gold has been an unloved asset class for years but that is about to change. I am expecting a bear market in equities and rising yields as a…”
by Brian Delaney via GoldSeek
– ‘Powerful bull market’ will likely send gold to $5,000 to $10,000
– If USD & Treasuries keep falling, stocks may decline at ‘moment’s notice’
– Traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds will not protect investors
– “Gold will replace bonds as the go-to hedge”



cheers Wan

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 09:43

some research that may help me;

What Did Smart Money Do In the 1929 Crash and Aftermath?
During the same bear market period smart-money moved from the plunging equity markets (i.e. financial assets) to hard asset investments, like Homestake Mining - which is used heretofore as a surrogate for all gold stocks. The stock price of this gold mining company soared relentlessly upward during the entire bear market. Homestake Mining stock rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - which represents a total return of 519% (excluding cash dividends) during the devastating bear market period.

if that happened at AAZ I could retire :-)

also, During the severe 1973/74 bear market, stocks lost half their value - while gold mining companies almost quadrupled.

question is; will it be the same this time around, does gold still have its mystical allure?

cheers Wan

[wanobi] 09/12/2018 09:34

thanx Bumpa, I think the whole world is now expecting a crash, a lot speaking of the inevitability of the 'big one',,, bit like earthquakes I guess... when these things happen they happen very fast, so either one sits in cash and short term trades like your good-self, or one accepts the risk and stays in as it could be 2 years away or 2days!! who knows!

My approach is a bit of both I suppose, I have liquidated a lot of stocks recently that were in the red, I have 2 more in the red right now, one in tungsten, the other in oil, they may have to go soon depending upon what I see next week. As for AAZ, my average is around 55p so there is some headroom there, but I've lost on the others, so lets say 65p I can be out make some profit, stay in cash and look to buy in again around the bottom....

So, the problem I have right now...
1 - Will Gold rise in the event of a crash, I'd say yes, you?
2 - Will AAZ being a gold miner rise with it, or crash with everything else, I'd say I don't know, you?
3 - Should I sell down a lot of AAZ now to my breakeven cash point so what's left are free shares to ride out the earthquake - that's up to me and I'm undecided at this point.
4 - or, do I buy more AAZ if the 80p line holds and hope the markets are ok for a further 2 years - no idea, up to me to decide..

all good fun stuff at the moment, but should things turn really ugly it's my retirement funds on the line here!!! Risk management is a very tricky thing :-)


Cheers all, Wan

[zangdook] 09/12/2018 09:30

Macron-Trump was best summed up by the pictures of them planting a tree in the WH grounds followed by pictures next day of the site with no tree. Gotta love Trump.

But dragging s Chinese national off a plane and throwing her in jail for using a British bank to conduct business between China and Iran, just because the US government is under Netanyahu's thumb, is ridiculous overreach and won't end well for the US. Trudeau is even stupider than Macron.

back on topic, I made a maiden purchase and am now sitting at a loss...

[le0nard] 09/12/2018 09:01

I know you guys have lots of AAZ shares and well played to you for getting in early. But what do you guys have in the way of physical gold. Physical as in gold/silver you actually can touch not ETFs or futures contracts, because when the SHTF and the brokerages go belly up you will need it.
FYI AAZ is my largest holding by far.

[bumpa33] 08/12/2018 23:27

I follow a fair number of traders and TA guys on the markets, in particular the S&P, in line with what I feel (after last week) all of them now think we’re in real trouble.

[mattjos] 08/12/2018 21:01

It's a mess 2sp ... I fear but, also believe, that both the U.K. and the world has to go significantly backwards from here before it can finally go forward. Still too much unfinished business & unfinished businesses from 07/08.Russia looks best set to come out strongest next time around .... their debt levels are negligible.Despite continued buying am still averaged well below 20p here therefore, still plenty of headroom to keep buying all the way through 2019 as the stage gets set for the inevitable.

[2sporrans] 08/12/2018 16:55

neat summary of the fed rate rise v balance sht reduction 'trade off' Matt.

if the next usa recession is deep/long, guess there will be qe4, maybe with accent on buying up longer dated bonds, like 15-30yr.
though the bal. sht expansion : gdp raise ratio will be ever higher.....guess the headache will be mild compared with the dilemma facing europe[uk] and japan.
i doubt either will have fully curtailed their ongoing qe by early 2020.

so could be $trillions of liquidity injection, very little going the productive investment channel, the great majority chasing financial assets - include gold in that.
just like before, only moreso.

also, over 2008-11, china was able to stimulate to keep gdp growth above 10pc pa.; huge help in buoying up global growth + trade was pretty free flowing back then
no way can this be repeated 2019-20.
china will be challenged to make 5% growth during global slowdown you anticipate, even with their [necessary] debt-de-leverage put on hold.
guess china gdp may even be 50% higher than 2011....but even the extra 'weight' looks like will fall well short of what required to provide similar stimulus contribution.
and there is also the trade 'war' conundrum....

rest of the world, even the better managed, stronger economies, plagued by similar high/higher debt:gdp levels esp. household and gov't if not corporate too.
fiscal expansion looks v. dangerous 'remedy', almost anywhere/everywhere.

[bleepy] 08/12/2018 15:47

“An internal estimate for the near down dip continuity of the Gadir mineralisation zone (over about 80m) provided some 750,000 tonnes of mineralisation at an average grade of about 4.5 grammes per tonne gold”

750,000 x 4.5 = 3.375ml gms Au approx 120,000ozs Au.

Very nice and that’s not taking into account the presence of other metals such as copper and silver, geo’s could be higher.

[mattjos] 08/12/2018 14:50

The Fed started to raise rates in December 2015 … Gold was then $1,061

The overriding 'advice' then from all the 'professionals' was to sell Gold as it did not offer a coupon, it costs to store it physically and it supposedly always fell during previous periods of rising rates.
Historical statistics actually debunk the 'Gold falls as rates rose' & prove the opposite!!

Now, 3 years into this cycle of rising rates, Gold has so far risen 17% from 1061 to 1240.

(Over same timeframe, AAZ has risen just about 1,800% from 5p to 88p!)

For me, Gold appears to be telling investors that as interest rates rise, so too the risks are rising that the Fed is hiking rates straight into the next crisis - arguably gold is the proxy for a cause & effect feedback loop of rising rates.

Statistically it takes a 4% cut in interest rates to stave off a recession in the USA so, you can understand why the FED is keen to try and get rates back to that 4% level … so that it has the necessary room to cut rates by 4% when the next recession arrives.
Problem is at the same time as they are raising rates they are also shrinking the size of the Fed balance sheet (still bloated by the effects of the last 3 rounds of QE).
Supposedly this concurrent balance sheet shrinkage is akin to an additional 1% of interest rates so, one can argue the 'real' rate is currently 3.25%. With two more rises looking certain (this month & during H1 2019) we'd then be at a 'real' rate of 3.75%.

Rates got up 5.25% in 2007 before that crisis hit the world & the FED was forced to cut rates to 0.25%.
I cannot see rates getting up as high as 5.25% this time around … over the last 11 years, global debt has gone through the roof as nations, corporates and individuals have taken on more & more debt, stimulated by near zero rates.

Three more rate rises from here, in conjunction with ongoing Fed Balance Sheet reduction, will take us to the important combined 'real' 4% level.

I believe that is as high as they will manage to get them before the next recession arrives and rates ae forced back down to virtually zero once again.
3% Fed headline rate + the equivalent of an additional 1% as a consequence of Balance Sheet reduction.

As far as I am concerned, the next recession & therefore the next rounds of stimulus will arrive during H2 2019 / early 2020.

QE1 was launched in December 2008 & was followed by QE2 .. these two operations went to July 2011 … in that timescale, Gold went from $700/oz to $1,900/oz. near as damn a 250% increase in value.

Gold in the region of $2,600 - $3,000 / oz in a 2-3 years time looks entirely feasible to me & that is why I intend to sit tight here, keep accumulating more shares, collect the dividend & wait for AAZ to reach its true value, which I believe is helluva lot closer to £5/share than it is today

[graylyn1] 08/12/2018 13:45

Interesting to note the internal estimate for the Gadir mineralisation zone in the 2018 exploration figs.

It is planned to carry out resource and reserve estimation according to JORC (Joint Ore Reserve Committee) standards during H2 2018, utilising the services of the independent company Datamine International Limited. An internal estimate for the near down dip continuity of the Gadir mineralisation zone (over about 80m) provided some 750,000 tonnes of mineralisation at an average grade of about 4.5 grammes per tonne gold.

nice!

[mattjos] 08/12/2018 13:30

back in 1985 GBPUSD fell to round 1.05.
Given the situation with BREXIT in the coming 3½ months, I would not be surprised to see a return to the same levels.

The maiden dividend calculation was based on GBPUSD of 1.3121

GBPUSD has fallen virtually 3% since then to now 1.2731
There seems to be every reason that a combination of domestic events here and the Fed likely to hike rates again this month and then again during H12019, will see GBP continue on a downward trajectory against USD.

Assuming circa 3c final dividend at the year end, GBPUSD of 1.20 or lower will equate to 2.5p payable to investors.

Given the likely production increase we will see next year, I now have 5p total dividend payable to shareholders during calendar year 2019.
At 90p buy price that represents 5.55% yield.

AAZ's business model & current growth position affords UK investors several benefits:
- Protection against falling £ as a result of the BREXIT mess
- Upside leverage on the price of gold, in an increasingly volatile and uncertain world
- Big margin of safety with regards our Operating Costs v price of gold
- Both near-term and longer term upside as a consequence of the exploration work
- Medium & Longer term growth opportunity as we inevitably breakout from just the Gedabek complex and establish a secondary base … likely Ordubad.

Am struggling to determine much in the way of downside below this weeks closing price but, can quickly and rationally determine significant upside from here.

[wanobi] 08/12/2018 12:12

doesn't matter which way I draw it, POG looks ready for major breakout test right now and back to the longer term trend, upper channel to restore the underlying strength in this asset... hope I am correct, time will tell, GLA, cheers Wan


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[wanobi] 08/12/2018 11:43

looking back at last week,,,, now that's what I call a black swan event for global stock markets!!! who could have foreseen this one :-) "Market-Shaking U.S. Case Against Huawei CFO Rolls Into Next Week"..... just a reminder to myself,,,, they're out there just waiting to mess up our 'best laid plans'..... cheers Wan

[2sporrans] 08/12/2018 10:29

thanks mf
for sharing this insightful article.

so, this is done but provides context:

,,I started this week with around 15% cash and top sliced some Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) shares on Monday, achieving an average sale price of just over 94p (against an average buy price of around 35p). AAZ remains my largest holding (over 25% of portfolio value) and as signposted on these pages previously, my plan was to reduce exposure and lock-in some gains.,,

given this is clearly an astute investor of substantial wealth who invests in a broad-diversified manner, with [currently anyway] an accent upon income [dividends] returns, a holding of >25% in an aim gold miner is a huge vote of confidence in aaz as well as commitment.

this is noteworthy:
,,Dividends at this point are important partly because of the cashflow they provide to the portfolio and partly because they tend to underpin the valuation over the medium term. The cashflow provided enables me to batten down the hatches and not be panicked into selling should the bear persist for a prolonged period.,,

hence, in part i guess, he is targeting his [further] top slicing sale prices in terms of reciprocally falling div. yields as the share price rises.
but he is looking to stay long term in aaz, retaining the great majority of his holding - saying his selling is half done now; the aaz cashflow is obviously v important to this investor.

which takes us to his declared intentions going foward:

,,This week’s selling represents around half of my planned reduction and I will wait until after the next news flow (Gadir JORC) before reducing further. I might even wait until the Q1 news flow, depending on the price action. Suffice to say, I hope that my next sale takes place comfortably north of £1 per share.,,

if this is anything to go on, he must be anticipating plenty of net buying leading up to gadir jorc news release.
he says he won't sell during the run up....but if the jorc does not appear next few/several days, may he be tempted if the share price surmounts £1 and some?
whatever, he seems to expect the jorc news to spur further net buying in medium term, regardless of any sell-on-news short term.
not sure if the q4 results are part of what he refers to as q1 news flow; guess they will be. in any event, he does not want to sell more in a hurry and is targeting share price well above £1.
at 110p share price the 2018 divi, annualised [4.56p] yield is 4.15%; still a decent income and with growth in prospect. so, this tees in with his portfolio objectives.

reading between the lines, i think he's expecting next few months newsflow to be good enough to feed ongoing up-revaluation and [given news does not disappoint] won't sell any more for less than his target price of ,,comfortably north of £1 per share,,

ok, so he's not the market.
but he may well be pretty representative of it.

i'll overlook his lead in comment:
,,(the FTSE 100 this week hit its lowest level in the 21st Century],,
way, way off the mark. was 3300 or thereabouts in 2008-9 trough from memory.


hfel...fundsmith. hey i hold those.

[mad foetus] 08/12/2018 08:43

This guy has a lot of AAZ and has top sliced. Suspect he is not the only one. Those who follow rules may have more exposure to AAZ than any single stock should have. I am comfortable with that but others aren't, which is fair enough

[mattjos] 08/12/2018 01:08

Thanks for clarifying Fz

[friendzarin] 08/12/2018 00:52

I’m advised my last post might have suggested that as someone who visited the mine it might have seemed an opportunist sell.That is so far from the case it’s laughable..just look at the visit posts .. der ? I had to meet some upcoming bills. I’m sorry if I created a false impression. Don’t be under any illusion I will continue to buy from now until I say otherwise as long as I have liquid funds. There is no better momentum/yield stock as far as I can see and I passed the serious overweight label a long time ago.
Of course everyone else can make their own choice. When you buy and sell is up to you .no probs. atb FZ

[wanobi] 07/12/2018 22:40

thanx mattjos, will do, cheers Wan

[mattjos] 07/12/2018 22:21

research wanobi … keep at it