Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/9/2018 08:22

Hi Pyglet,

Good to see you here

I wonder how many more would be investors are watching and hoping for a pull back

No resistance until 80p and that was so long ago we might go through on the first attempt

We shall see

Ps All the trades are buys so far this morning - spread is much tighter than advertised - actual is 64.125 to sell vs 64.77 to buy

[lefrene] 21/9/2018 08:20

Perhaps that persistent seller has finally finished?

[trinko] 21/9/2018 08:18

spot above $1210 :-))

[return_of_the_apeman] 21/9/2018 08:14

Yep dollar vs gold reversal in play, large buyer(s) here and Q3 results coming sòon - perfect storm

[brasso3] 21/9/2018 08:13

Nobody with a brain will be selling this side of 80p

[pyglet] 21/9/2018 08:12

Waiting for a pullback here. I think I'll be waiting a while.

[brasso3] 21/9/2018 07:08

Looks like gold about to break above $1210.

[goldrush] 20/9/2018 22:58

KS,jb and 2sp

Really Great posts.

Of course IMHO the next highlight will be the Q3 Production Update and the effects of running the new second crusher and their perfection of the processing lines. Then we can assess the probable yearly increase in throughput and if we can break out of the targeted 78 /84 k GEO’s range. Which will then lead to increased GEO’s for next year and maybe a target of just over 100k GEO’s for 2019. We all know our CEO will want to get over that target.Remember his objective of us being a Mid Tier Producer....

Then of course as you say Ordubad or another Ugur in 15 months from now.

AIMHO

[jbravo2] 20/9/2018 22:28

Hi 2sp. Thanks for your kind comments.
I guess I've held the view for quite a while that it should damn well nearly be my job to know this company as well as an employee. I've got so much invested here now that anything else would be remiss.
I'm not sure which came first but slowly as I learned more, I invested more and then I felt I had a duty to stay on top of it due to the amount invested.
I think I've only missed one investor presentation the last four years or so, I've been to every AGM for 6 or so years, could work it out if I tried.
All part of the not leaving any stone unturned in my attempt to make sure I was making the best decision I could.
It's a different approach to most who reckon you should know the 20 or so companies you're in well, but I question how well you can know 20 companies. I'd rather know one obsessively well. Providing of course it is the right one.
Let's not pretend I got everything right though, I was investing on the way down as well as now on the way up. I bought at the bottom sure, but I wasn't sure where it was going to be.


I'd like to thank you for your posts on the wider economy, metals prices, strength of dollar etc over the last, is it a year or two now? Undoubtedly this is a weakness of mine. I've no clue where stuff like that is heading and am often interested in others thoughts so thanks for the value you've brought on that. I've long espoused I don't think we're going to see high gold prices anytime soon (eg the 1600 some are convinced is round the corner) but anything up from here is fine enough.

As for your AL plant question. You know what, even if they found a massive Ugur I don't think they'd expand the AL plant. They'd just raise the grade that got treated in the AL plant. Some would get stockpiled but ultimately a higher grade might get HL.
Oh and don't worry about the cash stockpile. That's gonna look real big real soon.

Edit: oh and what do you mean this is PERHAPS the most informative board you've visited :D

[king suarez] 20/9/2018 21:23

Yes, thanks again to JB (and others) who have answered my questions so far. Very much appreciate you guys taking the time to impart your knowledge - and if the answers help other investors, then that's great too.

This is indeed a great BB and valuable investing tool/resource, and a great company too.

[2sporrans] 20/9/2018 21:08

KS and JB

Great ? and answers postings guys.
Top drawer exhibit of what makes this bb so special; perhaps the most informative I've visited.

I'm amazed at your depth of knowledge JB.
You're not a manager at Gedabek are you ? :0)

What you say about the [modular-to-match] expansion of the flotation plant
is in line with my expectations + the nature of the future resource.
But you've clearly a lot more factual knowledge and insights than I to project
forward with.
I'm gratefully trying to assimilate what you've been good enough to share.

What if another, much bigger version of Ugur is revealed?
Oh dear; the AL-SART plant will be maxed out for decades.

Hopefully the AAZ stockpile of cash will grow to match the value of the Flotation-feed one or the tailings over the next couple of years while the optimum CAPEX strategy/programme is determined.

[gutterhead] 20/9/2018 20:40

Welcome Board Indyanna. I’ve held for 4 years ish and am still buying.
It’s a great board well controlled and with lots of info.
I’ve met a number of other holders at this years agm, they’re a good bunch, and intelligent investors. Good decision to join the club.

[mattjos] 20/9/2018 20:21

The August 17 breakout, after similar 12 months consolidation, propelled the price from 19p to 55p .. virtually 3 fold increase.This breakout after 12 month consolidation so far a 55% gain.I believe a lot more to come

[jeanesy] 20/9/2018 19:29

Another day , another rise . All looking good here ! I still have to pinch myself that this is actually happening :) What a week this has been !!!

[broken_arrow1] 20/9/2018 19:00

At the current share price the well covered yield is 7%

At £1 a share the yield would be circa 4.5%

[king suarez] 20/9/2018 18:43

Thanks, JB. Useful info there and sounds a sensible strategy. Perhaps some small incremental expansion can be made in the meantime where appropriate, as you have suggested.

[jbravo2] 20/9/2018 18:39

The constraints now are quite widespread.

The main one of course is that the plant is running at design max.
That's 120t/hr for AL and 95t/hr for flotation.

The crushers are also maxed out around there.
Clearly also the mining fleet isn't designed to produce anything too different from that, sure we have some excess hence our stockpiles but they have been built slowly over years.

The AL plant would be too expensive to expand IMO and it just won't happen. That also treats the stuff that will run out first so no point expanding that. Forget that IMO.

The flotation can be expanded relatively easily and relatively cheaply. This is where money will be spent in the future IMO.
We'd need more crushing, and possibly more grinding but again that could be added. (I'm less certain of the capacities of the SAG and ball mills but we must be close to their limit now). This would also of course need an expansion of the mining fleet but again easily done.

For now I suspect they're happy to run Gedabek at this rate for a year or two while they evaluate exactly how much stuff they've got and where. And of course what is in it.

I think we'll see something start at Ordubad to expand production first. My bet is between 12 and 24 months but I know matt thinks quicker than that.

[jbravo2] 20/9/2018 18:32

Don't worry macmuck. You're now in and there is so much headroom on this price you'll be sitting pretty soon.
We've all been accused of "oh you would say that you want to sell" etc. It happened at 20p, 32p, loads of times at 40ishp.
We're still all here.
The potential here is mind boggling.
You'll do well. You'll relax a bit when you're clear of your buy price. All you need, occasionally at times of consolidation, is some patience. Look how relaxed jeanesy became. Even lefrene is panicking less now.
:D

[king suarez] 20/9/2018 18:28

Does anyone have an opinion on what is the largest current constraint to increasing production near term?

a) Expansion of processing facilities? Does anyone know the maximum throughput of the current facilities?

b) More/better mining equipment and infrastructure (and more workers)?

c) Proof that the size of the potential underground mine resources warrant further substantial capex - i.e short enough payback period + long enough mine life

d) Physical space to expand facilities?

e) All of the above!?

[macmuck] 20/9/2018 17:16

Just broke our Funds only rule for kids ISA and added. 62.5. Should have grew some a couple of weeks ago but did not have you lot's confidence or experience. Thank you all for your fine input!

[supercity] 20/9/2018 17:09

Check out the 3 year chart on HOC I wouldn't be at all surprised if we copy their rise from the 50p level especially if funds want to get on board and have to buy in the open market

[plasybryn] 20/9/2018 17:04

Thanks everyone especially King S for such a comprehensive reply.Cheers & good luck everyone

[jbe81] 20/9/2018 17:03

Another big volume day