Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[jbravo2] 20/9/2018 12:54

@king Suarez
Re how much credence do I put on the Russian data.
Not sure how to describe except perhaps saying I give it a 7/10. The smaller the resource the more unreliable I'd guess it is. That why I think Ordubad has got to be fairly safe. As I said we only need a couple of the prospects to be proved up and we're off again.
I hope we take a gradual approach again, as outlined by catsick, can't think of a reason why Reza won't. He's proved it works and avoids that nasty dilution word.

@catsick
Looking forward to it. I don't mind buying the booze. I can just about run to that nowadays :D

[jbravo2] 20/9/2018 12:51

Another good morning I see.
Not so sure about consolidation. We'll see. The lull trying to bore a few newbies out.
Can sell 50k at over 61p but can't get a quote to buy 10k.
I guess someone wants the shares pretty bad

:)

[bmcb5] 20/9/2018 12:35

Agreed. Consolidation, with volume, after a 40% rise is good form. Heading for 4th successive day of >1m. Nice liquidity

[mad foetus] 20/9/2018 11:58

Still looks strong but a bit of consolidation around here wouldn't do any harm

[terropol] 20/9/2018 11:58

CATSICK, look forward to it. The 50p target for the dinner well gone...
And by then you will also have the dividends in the account.
Do you thing we could have copper plates and Gold plated cuttlery?? With AAZ stamped on it. LOL

[bozzy_s] 20/9/2018 11:58

Online quote of 60.7p for all my shares (just below 100,000)

Looking very strong. Mattjos mentioned a buyer in the auction, looks like they're pretty keen.

[ntv] 20/9/2018 11:31

interesting that no-one mentions the fall in commodity prices as having an effect on CF as well as PTP
PTP are different from CF as can be seen in previous accounts
A better understanding of where the company is in terms of figures will be with 3rd Q update sometime next month
I would suggest they have gone for this level of dividend in relation to predicted CF allowing for the above and CT and as stated by others
Dividend level was way above the level I thought we would get so happy to hold and buy any real dips

[catsick] 20/9/2018 11:20

Before anyone mentions it I am still planning to fund the AAZ midlands dinner later in the year next time I make it to the UK ... budget just increased a bit this week (-:

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/9/2018 10:51

Indeed King and hgm is one of the best low aisc mines out there, but the asic here is lower :-)

[2sporrans] 20/9/2018 10:47

I'm not the one to ask KS

Matt and JB are far more clued up than I, not least wrt IPO docs [which I have of course read and returned to] and indeed anything pre 2009.
Catsick knows a lot too and I guess a few other stalwarts here.

Back in them early days, AAZ were looking to exploit gold first-most, copper being one for later.
Seems they are following suite this time around.
Shekedere stood out as the BIG gold prospect from the Soviet data, if not the most concentrated one.
That's where AAZ's preliminary explo. is focused this year.

Like Catsick says, if it comes up with decent commercially attractive grades, access, water supply etc.....they can repeat their Gedabek model of development/production:
For modest CAPEX outlay, start with heap leaching.
Can easily fund from op. cash flow.

Having said, fwliw, I'd expect the copper prospects to come up trumps.
There's at least 5 deposit prospects, ex Soviet, all 10-15km from one or other of those 3 big mines over the border....
Certainly, AAZ emphasise copper as being the one with high expectations for over the long term in Ordubad.
As the Heliborne survey gear is best for identifying where a lot of metal is by %, that favours finding copper [or copper+gold+silver together] deposits over purely gold [or gold/silver].
So, we shall see how successful the HS is in finding such over the Gedabek licence area. hopefully a nice Xmas gift from investor perspective!!
If it proves itself, the HS will get rolled out to Ordubad.

Meanwhile, may as well get on with panoramic but relatively superficial explo. of Shekedere, with Gold foremost in mind, to identify the best sub-prospects for drilling; proving the Soviet finds will be secondary too doing a comprehensive search I guess.
But wtfdik.

[bleepy] 20/9/2018 10:20

Will ongoing exploration of Ordubad be followed up by a heli geo survey of the whole contact area...leave that one to Stephen Westhead and Aaz.

[return_of_the_apeman] 20/9/2018 10:20

Pretty sure I've seen reference to the corp tax before in previous presentations / results - can't remember which

Think they mentioned they could not offset losses then as different country - but could be totally wrong on this last bit

[king suarez] 20/9/2018 09:55

Mattjos, Jbravo2, 2sporrans,

Thank you for your thoughts in response to my questions on the Ordubad area.

I was reading some of the other old AAZ threads on ADVFN last night and it sounds like in 2005-06 the company tried to twin some of the old holes the Soviets drilled and they came up empty (couldn't see any RNS on the AAZ website?) in some cases, but the caveat is that they didn't have accurate drill location information in the first place? Just logs without proper co-ordinates, so unsure what to make of that.

Also read that there were 2 competent persons reports produced for the whole licence area?

On the other hand it looks to me like Gedabek is proving larger than the indicated resources in the IPO doc (Gadir was not identified at the time and obviously Ugur).

Some things feel a bit contradictory to me... for example, why is there a model in the IPO for a 250k oz p/a mine at Piyazbashi, when the resource is estimated at 189k oz total?

Do you guys place a lot of credence in the old Soviet data(?), because if verified then we are sat on billions of pounds worth of copper and gold, which is mind boggling....I am excited, but will remain conservative about the Ordubad area until we know more.

[papy02] 20/9/2018 09:53

Re 32%+ Corporation Tax, I think this is levied by Azerbaijan (UK rate is 19% not 32%), but am happy to be corrected.

[mr roper] 20/9/2018 09:50

Just added 20000 more to the Sipp. Still cheap aa chips here.

[2sporrans] 20/9/2018 09:47

60p the new 50p?

But not for months this time methinks.

[bleepy] 20/9/2018 09:41

“Significant gold grades of up to three ounces per tonne were intersected in drilling and confirmed by tunneling in the Gadir ore body and the presence of mineralisation beneath the open pit was established.”

“The Company continues to formalise all its resources and ore reserves and classify them according to the JORC Code of reporting.

The recently published updated JORC resource for the Gedabek open pit of circa one million ounces of gold further extends the life of the open pit by a further five to six years.

The Company anticipates that it will publish a JORC resource for the Gadir underground mine by the end of 2018.”


The significant grades encouted during Gadir exploration and confirmed by tunnelling are mouth watering.

If similar grades lie beneath Gedabek open pits as ore body is contiguous then another mouth watering Jorc is anticipated.

[thechurch333] 20/9/2018 09:35

Yes, 2SP, my blessed child, you are correct.
Must be just a lower average gold price assumption for next year.
Corporation tax issue needs clarification/quantification though. Hopefully SPA will address in their note.
The Lord giveth, the taxman taketh away...

[2sporrans] 20/9/2018 09:34

Introducing this UK Corporation Tax dimension has blown my wee grey cells out somewhat.

Think it's time for a sanity check on the Dividend and talk of it being doubled next year and implicitly the FCF.
For one thing a 25% of FCF basis is way higher than most were anticipating, ditto 3c or 2.3p twice a year.
For another the divi. policy is supposed to be sustainable.
Doesn't common sense suggest a degree of conservatism wrt what is bound to be a somewhat fluctuating quarterly [hence bi-annual] cashflow stream going forward?
So, at very least I'd read that as deciding dividends on a sort of lagged average basis; still based on H1/H2 FCF but smoothed out conservatively.
Can't see Reza and Bill Morgan risking the divi. fluctuating up then down, just because the FCF fluctuates and they apply a mechanical % payout rule on a live feed basis.


But the Corp. Tax issue has me scratching head ....

Even though the Cashflow ought to rise nicely over the next few years as more GEO are produced and efficiencies + commercial [sales] deals improve further, this doesn't preclude dips in the FCF.
The Tax matter is introducing a hitherto dormant parameter here?
But in any case there will be fluctuation in the prices of Gold and Copper [silver seems to be a non targeted bonus these days :0)]
There will also be fluctuations in the grades, mixes of ores.
I mean it's obvious that Ugur ain't going on forever and probably conserved a bit while the main pit + Gadir shares will rise relatively as well as absolutely; ditto flotation output v AL+SART.

And haven't the SPA forecasts for cashflow reflected this?
I meaan - without checking yet again - thye've forecast a wee dip for 2019 v 2018.
They did in their last full report.
Maybe the latest note is different [not got it to hand]?

Their imminent full report update should be illuminating.

Whatever, it's all looking great on a multi-year forward view.

[2sporrans] 20/9/2018 09:08

A level headed interpretation your Rev.
But I'm lost on this term:
"FCF minus capex"
Ain't FCF designated [by AAZ] as Op. CF less CAPEX?

[mattjos] 20/9/2018 09:06

Big buyer now in auction .. took seller for everything he had

[thechurch333] 20/9/2018 08:52

No, I read it as 2 dividend payments rather than 1. I read it as calendar 2019 FCF minus capex will be slightly lower in calendar 2019 than 2018. Also explains why the dividend was “only” 3 cents. This may be due to higher corporation tax payments.

[gutterhead] 20/9/2018 08:37

Doubling div next year! To 9p
At a sensible yield of 5% that would mean a share price of £1-80

[ilostthelot] 20/9/2018 08:24

What would a fair valuation method be?
10× free cash flow. Or for every extra year of proven mine life add an extra multiple of Free cash flow? Plus the 30M of talings dam and surly added value for speulative ive gold in ground insurrounding areas. All equipment for free. 🤔😁