Anexo Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 20/1/2022 11:26

The new issue of Shares Magazine today features three AIM stocks " which we think the market is undervaluing given their growth potential". The first to be mentioned is ANX....

[rivaldo] 18/1/2022 22:57

This post is simply to restore this ANX thread to the top since some idiot has started another one using the wrong EPIC code!

[rivaldo] 18/1/2022 09:38

Hope you're right hpcg!

Progressive have also nicely raised their forecasts. They see historic 16.7p EPS and 19.2p EPS this year - almost the same as Arden's.

They conclude:



"Forecast revisions. 2021: Our revenue forecast is increased by 6% to £109.8m (from £103.7m) reflecting higher average vehicles on the road. Combined with lower VW Emissions case costs than originally forecast, we now forecast reported profit before tax of £23.8m, some 23% above our previous forecast of £19.3m. 2022: A higher average vehicle count, combined with an uplift in performance for Bond Turner and a strong start from the Housing Disrepair Team, underpins an 11% revenue forecast increase to £125.9m (from £113.9m) and a 29% uplift in reported profit
before tax to £27.5m (from £21.4m)."

[hpcg] 18/1/2022 08:43

Cashed in a couple of losers / stagnant money and doubled up here. Aside from the news today it is pretty much a guarantee this makes Simon Thompson's bargain share of the year list again. Or if not he will provide healthy coverage.

[rivaldo] 18/1/2022 07:56

Arden have heavily increased their forecasts, by 13% and 17% for last year and this year respectively.

They now see a historic 16.8p EPS, and 19.3p EPS this year - a P/E of just 7.3 (with 2.3p and 2.6p dividends on top).

They retain their Buy and 280p price target.

[p1nkfish] 18/1/2022 07:32

Excellent.

[rivaldo] 18/1/2022 07:16

The phrase I love to hear...."profit before tax will be significantly ahead of market expectations" :o))

All sorts of goodies in today's news which will continue to benefit ANX going forward, including:

- record numbers of vehicles on the road
- strong growth in the motorcycle courier market
- reduction in competition
- implementation of the Civil Liability Act

There should be a good run-up to the results from here - will the 280p broker price target be increased even further?

[hpcg] 17/1/2022 13:50

Surely the housing repair business is about going after the slum landlords? I assume it is just legal fees that come back, though potentially a share of compensation if that is also awarded. I don't know for certain I must admit. Chart looks good though :)

[gusrezo] 17/1/2022 12:30

housing disrepair businees is just about legal fees, I can figure out? do cases take longer to settle than vehicle hires, since the defendant is usually a local government o similar? I mean, it's difficult to model the impact of this business in Anexo's accounts due to the lack/limited information...

[rivaldo] 17/1/2022 08:44

Moving up almost every day now - nice start to the week.

[boozey] 14/1/2022 18:07

Trading Update due within a couple of weeks.

[rivaldo] 14/1/2022 11:12

Moving up again - hopefully about to break upwards.

[rimau1] 11/1/2022 08:29

On top of Ardens buy case I also like the progress into housing disrepair. ANX have a nice countercyclical element as the number of people moving into social and rented housing increases and fuel/cost of heating bills increase this should translate into higher case numbers. I would also be very surprised if ST does not include ANX in his 2022 share tip portfolio again

[rivaldo] 10/1/2022 11:55

Arden Partners have today issued a Research note detailing their "Best Ideas for 2022".

ANX is one of them, with a Buy and a 280p target price.

Here's their summary:

"Opportunity for 2022 – we believe that 2022 should be the year that Anexo’s key drivers align positively for the Group with recovery and substantial market share gains in credit hire, the expansion of housing disrepair claims (currently over 1600), accelerating cash collections from Bond Turner and a possible conclusion of the VW emissions claims. These factors will highlight an earnings profile and valuation which is mispriced by the market and should result in a substantial re-rating.

Substantial core business growth – Anexo’s credit hire business has expanded to well over 2000 vehicles on the road, taking market share from smaller fragmented players that have come under funding pressure during the restrictions of the past 2 years. We expect more of the same in 2022 as rivals retrench further. Anexo’s access to capital has allowed it to capture a high quality credit hire case load to feed the significant settlement capacity in Bond Turner to drive cash collections.

Emissions litigation increasingly positive – The recent decision against Volkswagen in emissions litigation is a positive development for Anexo which we believe is a further significant step towards a material settlement. Anexo currently has approximately 15,000 VW emissions claims being handled by Bond Turner and could be worth upwards of £30m to Anexo based on similar claims settled in other jurisdictions.

Catalysts to watch for – Key catalysts for the year include confirmation of a settlement from VW, potentially initiating emissions claims action against other auto manufacturers, demonstration of substantial credit hire market share gains and rapidly accelerating cash collections building on the ongoing investment in Bond Turner.

Investment thesis and valuation - Anexo trades on 9.2x P/E and 6.8x EBITDA. As we discussed previously, the market provides very little value for the 20,000 case backlog and the investments made in legal services to drive settlements with very little value recognised for potential emissions claims. In our view, the market does not grasp the impact of COVID, accelerating scale and the pent-up settlement potential in the Group which will ultimately release shareholder value."

[rivaldo] 06/1/2022 09:42

Good to see the bounce here continuing steadily, with small daily price rises before the year end trading update coming soon - last year's was 25th January.

A reminder of the outlook from the interims:

"Trading Outlook

Current activity levels indicate a strong second half performance for the Credit Hire division. The number of vehicles on the road is consistently reaching record levels and, as of 7 September 2021, stands at 2,023. The outlook for the Legal Services division is also strongly positive, with case settlements and consequent cash collections set to increase as the courts re-open fully and the backlog of cases diminishes.

The Group's finance providers have proposed increases in our debt facilities and the Board anticipates that agreements will be concluded shortly. Current market conditions offer significant opportunities and the Board believes that reaffirming its growth strategy will benefit both the Credit Hire and Legal Services divisions and contribute to the creation of value for all our shareholders. The Board looks to the second half of 2021 and beyond with renewed optimism."

[rivaldo] 22/12/2021 14:38

Arden today reiterate their Buy and 280p target price. They currently forecast 14.8p EPS for the year about to end, and 18p EPS for the year starting next month.

And that excludes anything received from the VW claim.

They conclude:

"Investment thesis and valuation - Anexo trades on 8.6x P/E and 6.5x EBITDA. As we discussed previously, the market provides very little value for the 20,000 case backlog and the investments made in legal services to drive settlements with very little value recognised for potential emissions claims. In our view, the market does not grasp the impact of COVID, accelerating scale and the pent-up settlement potential in the Group which will ultimately release shareholder value. Reiterate Buy"

[p1nkfish] 22/12/2021 10:40

Very good news and typical of VW to try and dodge their responsibility to misselling.

Go get'em claimants & ANX.

[eezymunny] 22/12/2021 08:52

Guess £50m total win for the claim? Half goes to car owners (per website). Guess 25% of the rest to litigators? Would give £18.75m to ANX. Nice work if you can get it...

[rivaldo] 22/12/2021 07:15

Bought some of these recently, and gratified to see today's news that the VW case continues to go well - should be extremely material if successful, and I suspect the denouement is getting closer and closer:

[raymund] 25/11/2021 18:04

Good news today re MCE and DBAY getting more involved with appointment of their non-exec

[p1nkfish] 14/10/2021 06:41

OK, thought it had to go to ANX first as 8.3. Thanks.
My mistake.

[timmythedog] 14/10/2021 06:02

An 8.3 announcement is made by the shareholder, not the company. So Tavira are the ones who made a mistake.

[p1nkfish] 13/10/2021 21:37

Looking at the RNS released and then pulled back have to wonder what controls they have in place and if they know what they are doing.

[p1nkfish] 21/9/2021 07:47

Took a step back and did some more reading.

I think DBAY aborted the buy as it is possible the company will need to raise funds to achieve potential. This would be easier on the market than DBAY privately taking the risk. The due diligence period would have helped identify this.

So, let's wait to see if they look to raise and if so at what price.