Anexo Share Discussion Threads

[boozey] 02/9/2021 13:25

So we are basically back to where we were before bid talks were called off. So nearly bought more first thing in the morning after that RNS when the price sank to 124p to buy. But didn't. He who hesitates in the markets!

[p1nkfish] 30/8/2021 18:48

Isn't it perfectly reasonable for a non-fault injured party to recover credit hire rates?
If it is so then any change on that front would be hard to justify & unlikely.

[value_spotting] 30/8/2021 17:08

Hey all! Check out my latest piece on Anexo Group Plc.

hxxps://eddielloydcom.wordpress.com/2021/08/30/bought-anexo-group-plc-22-5yr-historical-cagr-10x-current-ev-ebit/

My key takeaways:

Advantages
- My multi scenario model, with special consideration of risk of default, results in fair value between 26% & 48% above the current SP;
- The business performance has little correlation with the performance of the wider economy, offering genuine diversification;
- The business has been growing at speed, with revenue growing at a CAGR of 22% over the last 4 years;
- Backlog of 20,000 cases following impact of COVID-19 provides strong pipeline of revenue;
- Management still has a controlling ownership in the business, with the joint shareholding of Alan Sellers (Chairman) & Samantha Moss (MD of Bond Turner) exceeding 50%;
- Continued interest from private equity (who currently own 29% shareholding) provides a strong indication of value in the business;
- Market share currently only 2.5%, providing ample room for further expansion;
- Relatively low P/B ratio of 1.4x, which is due to large amount of working capital required in the business.

Key risks
- The business model is underpinned by a ruling by the House of Lords whereby non-fault accident victims have the right to recover credit hire rates from third party insurers, there is therefore a key risk that further developments in case law disrupt the business;
- Risk of further approaches from DBAY at undervalue.

[tole] 20/8/2021 19:29

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-round-up-featuring-anexo-group-surface-transforms-gattaca/Anexo Group (LON:ANX) – bid talks are off, shares are now a buyThe potential bid by DBAY Advisors is off the table and the credit hire and legal services provider can get back to business again.Chairman Alan Sellers, who was involved in the approach, commented that "The group's activities continue to accelerate as UK lockdown measures ease, especially with the imminent release of pent-up case settlements as the UK Courts system begins to open. Cash collections remain consistently high and, with road users increasing, the number of vehicles on the road is reaching record levels."It appears that trading is ahead of expectations, but we will know more on Monday 13 September when the group announces its interim results to end June.Analyst Andrew Simms at Arden Partners rates the shares as a 'buy'. Upping his estimates, he now goes sees sales of £97m (£86.8m) for the current year to end December and adjusted pre-tax profits of £21.5m (£16.1m), with earnings jumping from 11.4p to 14.8p and covering a 2p (1.5p) dividend per share.Simms is confident enough of the group's trading prospects to pencil in £111.6m of revenues for next year, generating £26.1m of profits and 18p of earnings, with a 2.4p dividend per share.Arden has put out a 280p price objective for the shares, which fell back 8.5p to 133p on news that bid discussions had ended.At that level, I would suggest that they are worth jumping into ahead of the interims.

[carcosa] 20/8/2021 06:50

The note is available on their website for free.
hxxps://research.arden-partners.com/portal/portal.html#/home

[alex_mc] 19/8/2021 18:54

Arden partners have just published a note on Anexo. Anyone able to access it?

[timmythedog] 19/8/2021 13:47

I think every 2.8 statement has this in it - it's legalese by the yard rather than tailor-made. Surely the important thing is that they have indicated to the Board that they're not sellers of the existing stake. Or presumably they have - the Anexo statement says it was approved by DBAY so I imagine they would have said something different if they didn't agree.

[p1nkfish] 19/8/2021 13:32

From Skadden.

"Rule 2.8 of the Code provides that a person who makes a statement that he does not intend to make a bid for a company (a Rule 2.8 statement) will be bound by that statement and precluded from bidding for six months, unless certain permitted circumstances occur that the bidder has specified in the Rule 2.8 statement as being circumstances in which it may be set aside."

[p1nkfish] 19/8/2021 09:07

Haven't had chance to double check as too busy but below should, if memory serves me right, offer DBAY another shot before 6 months is circumstances allow.

"Under Note 2 on Rule 2.8 of the Code, DBAY, and any person(s) acting in concert with it, reserves the right to set the restrictions in Rule 2.8 of the Code aside in the following circumstances:

a)  with the agreement of the board of directors of Anexo;

b)  following the announcement of a firm intention to make an offer for Anexo by or on behalf of a third party;

c)  following the announcement by Anexo of a proposal for a "whitewash" (as referred to in Note 1 of the Notes on Dispensations from Rule 9 of the Code) or for a reverse takeover (as defined in the Code); or

d)  where the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Panel") has determined that there has been a material change of circumstances."

[p1nkfish] 19/8/2021 07:20

Read into dbay release and clauses.

[timmythedog] 19/8/2021 06:01

Well,they can't come back for at least six months. In the meantime we have numbers on 13 September which sound like they will confirm forward momentum.

[p1nkfish] 18/8/2021 21:33

My take, DBAY will be back.
The 30% will not be sold.
Price will respond as results show through.

[boozey] 18/8/2021 21:18

A good outcome. DBAY invested originally around 150p so they surely won't want to create an overhang at a loss. They may be a short term dip after tonight's announcement but I still see a progressive company for the mid-term.

[paul_butcher1999] 18/8/2021 17:22

Great news for shareholders that the sale at substantial under pricing is not happening! They had me worried for a while.

[timmythedog] 18/8/2021 16:38

Supportive shareholders support, surely?

[carcosa] 18/8/2021 16:27

'Supportive' shareholder but...potential 30% overhang?

[alex_mc] 18/8/2021 16:05

Well, there you have it. The offer wasn’t deemed acceptable. Thoughts?

[p1nkfish] 18/8/2021 15:29

They are taking the mick.

[metis20] 18/8/2021 11:56

The July 21 extension RNS was issued at 16:31

[p1nkfish] 18/8/2021 08:31

It has some of the hallmarks of kick the can.
Taking it to the wire, 6.5hrs left.

[p1nkfish] 17/8/2021 15:27

What indicates a final position is not imminent?
50:50 to me.
Perhaps DBAY hope to bore people to death?

[boozey] 17/8/2021 14:55

There is nothing to indicate a final position is imminent. My guess is odds on a further extension before 5:00PM tomorrow.

[p1nkfish] 17/8/2021 14:49

Deadline was extened until end of tomorrow, 18/8.
Will it be extended again?

[p1nkfish] 06/8/2021 10:56

Someone's nibbling even at this price vs 150p. Do they know something.