Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 16/12/2019 10:13

mdalos1 - 15 Dec 2019 - 16:52:43 - 5215 of 5216
Amryt Pharma - AMYT
No PROMISES made at all then... FAKE News from the usual source
No PROMISES clearly committed to in writing in the actual Company literature... more FAKE News from the one & only FLUTTER$H!TE.

The only thing clearly communicated about NASDAQ was some possibility of (an unclear/undefined) listing by perhaps late Jan/early Feb (if you use the 90 days most appropriately)... even then there was no PROMISE nor any clear detail.

You either understand these things OR you don't and repeatedly lead yourself astray & mislead others.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

You're a C*NT, mdalos. A prize C*NT. I'd love to meet you and tell you you're a C*NT to your face! You're a COWARD who deletes all his posts. In fact this post of yours is the only one you have yet to delete, but no doubt you will delete it very soon. You need a good seeing to, matey. Just as well you are an anonymous poster!

That's it for me. No more posts on this bb until we get some news. In fact I wont even read it again until we get some news.

[papillon] 13/12/2019 19:15

Cathal Friel in this interview, dated 13/9/2019, predicted the NASDAQ listing would take place in November!! LOL. How wrong can you be?

[papillon] 13/12/2019 12:39

mdalos1
13 Dec '19 - 09:03 - 5209 of 5210 (Filtered)

[alphabravo321] 13/12/2019 09:28

sharesmagazine.co.uk/video/amryt-pharma-amyt-kieran-rooney-vice-president-4

[papillon] 13/12/2019 00:09

mdalos1
12 Dec '19 - 19:48 - 5207 of 5207 (Filtered)

[papillon] 12/12/2019 17:09

That's all supposition on your part, gnnmartin. The FACT is AMYT promised the Nasdaq listing would take place within 90 days of the Aegerion deal being finalised and now we know it wont be. There could be any number of different reasons why the Nasdaq listing isn't going ahead and we can all guess why the promise is not being kept, but as we are not AMYT insiders our guesses could be wrong. Unfortunately AMYT will not be telling us why they have failed to keep their promise. The company shouldn't make promises they can't keep!

[gnnmartin] 12/12/2019 16:30

I assume that Amryt found that their initial investigation of a US listing got discouraging feedback. Perhaps (hopefully) the advice was that listing with AP101 still unresolved would not get a much better price that listing with AP101 written off (as you yourself suggest). In that case they might have decided to wait until the results for AP101 are known, suggesting they are a bit more optimistic than the market.

[papillon] 12/12/2019 15:16

Who cares when the AP101 phaseIII results are likely to be released? Whether it's March 2020, or March 2021. LOL.

Before the Aegerion deal was announced in May 2019 the AMYT share price was drifting downwards and the Mkt Cap implied that investors were NOT confident of AP101 being successful and that very little value was in fact being ascribed to AP101.

AMYT is now being valued primarily on the two revenue generating drugs acquired from Aegerion/Novelion and their growth prospects. We have shares in a biotech with projected annual sales of US$150m, a slug of debt (US$220m?) and a Mkt Cap of £164m. Whether that £164m Mkt Cap is fair value for AMYT I have no idea. The share price seems to have settled around the current and there is almost no volume so perhaps investors think it is fair value.

The only thing that disappoints me is why there are not any current plans to list on Nasdaq when such a Nasdaq listing was promised when the Aegerion deal was finalised in September. Just goes to show that one should only believe the audited results and ignore what AMYT promises.

PS. As far as I'm concerned AMYT have divested AP101 into the CVR's. If AP101 fails phaseIII then the CVR's are worthless. The odds on the CVR's ending up worthless? I've no idea. MADLOSS could be right and there's an 85% chance of failure, or he could be wrong and the odds on success are better than 15%. If AP101 is unsuccessful I wont lose any sleep over it. I've already written them off, so if AP101 is successful I'll have a pleasant surprise.

Amicus did a similar thing with their EB treatment acquired from Socioderm. Socioderm shareholders were promised milestone payments totalling over US$600m dependent on a successful phaseIII trial result. In the event the trial results were unsuccessful and the Amicus share price hardly moved.

I don't believe the current AMYT Mkt Cap ascribes much, if any, value to AP101. I believe the current AMYT Mkt Cap is almost solely determined by the revenue generated by the 2 drugs acquired by AMYT via Aegerion/Novelion and their growth prospects. Whether the Mkt is fairly valuing AMYT I have no idea.

[bermudashorts] 12/12/2019 14:42

diamondstar

As you say, the register was updated on 25th November to reflect the fact that another trial centre (Georgia from memory) had opened for recruitment. So I think it's fairly safe to assume that as of 25th November they were still recruiting. Even if they recruited the last patient immediately (unlikely)the 90 days treatment period would still take you to late February before the trial can be unblinded and the CRO can even start working on the data.

[papillon] 12/12/2019 14:39

mdalos1

12 Dec '19 - 13:05 - 5196 of 5201 (Filtered)

[diamondstar1] 12/12/2019 14:19

I understand why you are slightly more pessimistic on the timelines Bermuda - that’s because clinicaltrials.gov still states the study as recruiting. One possibility- similar to other trials I’ve been involved in - is that the Sponsor just hasn’t had time to update the website from recruiting to recruitment completed. That’s certainly a possibility, but the other one is that recruitment is truly behind, as you have postulated.

[diamondstar1] 12/12/2019 14:03

Thanks Bermuda.
The Clinicaltrials.gov website was last updated by Amryt on 25 Nov 2019 - hence the information provided should be fairly accurate. In addition - they now have 53 sites involved in the study. In my estimation, they will be recruiting at 0.3 - 0.5 patients per site per month. This means that the study will likely be recruiting 15 - 25 EB patients per month. Therefore, even if their recruitment rate is at the lower end of the range (at 0.3 ps/pm) this will should only delay study completion by a couple of weeks. My Database Lock timelines (6 weeks) are also fairly long, and I have given 2 weeks for preparation for public disclosure. Therefore, I'm thinking early March, potentially late March if there are some delays in recruitment. But your Q2 estimate could be right Bermuda - only time will tell.

[bermudashorts] 12/12/2019 13:34

Diamondstar,

Yes you're correct - will amended my 5197. However, they won't release results for primary endpoint in isolation - the database will only be closed and locked and then results produced once they reach the end of the main study - ie. when final patient has his/her final visit on day 90 of treatment.

All IMO of course and I very much hope I'm wrong and you're right but I'm expecting results a little later than you (hopefully in Q2).

[diamondstar1] 12/12/2019 13:23

Bermuda,
Primary Endpoint is wound healing at D45, rather than D90. Yes, patients will be treated for 90 days, but Primary Endpoint data will be collected earlier.

[bermudashorts] 12/12/2019 13:15

sidcam,

Yes main study protocol is for a 90 day treatment period after which all patients, including those on the placebo arm join the open label follow up study for up to 2 years. The primary endpoint is measured at day 45 and the secondary at 90 days.

So for Amryt to meet the primary endpoint timescale of Dec 2019 they would need to have recruited and started dosing the final patient 45 days beforehand. I don't believe that has happened - the study is still showing as recruiting. That's not at all surprising, recruitment for a paediatric rare disease like EB is never going to be an exact science, let alone when it's the largest ever trial ever undertaken.

[sidam] 12/12/2019 12:36

Bermuda

Are you sure it is 90 days? I recollect that was the time for the algereon study and that Amryt had a much shorter treatment cycle in their study.

[papillon] 12/12/2019 12:18

positivityNicholas
12 Dec '19 - 10:40 - 5189 of 5193 (Filtered)

positivityNicholas
12 Dec '19 - 10:40 - 5190 of 5193 (Filtered)

[bermudashorts] 12/12/2019 11:24

Think we'll have to agree to differ on this one.