Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[vike1] 01/2/2016 21:54

From Bounty Oil's Q4 report issued today:

"Nyuni Block Exploration 2016
The Joint Venture will acquire 3D seismic over the deep water part of the Nyuni PSA and is in the final phases of seismic contract negotiations. Planned
acquisition is set down for Q1 2016"

I wonder how we're going to pay for our 95% share of that in the next two months?

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 20:31

yes, thanks Peter

[greyingsurfer] 01/2/2016 20:24

For each well drilled on the Ruvuma PSA, ( TPDC’s security interest over the Kiliwani North Development Licence will be reduced by 3 per cent. for the first well and 4 per cent. thereafter.)

So the total security interest is 15% - since we know that after drilling the 4 wells the security interest is zero. Slightly better, from AEX's point of view than I remembered.

Peter

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 19:52

So what are "the certain securities over Kiliwani North"?

03 February 2014

AMINEX PLC

FORMAL ADDENDUM TO RUVUMA PRODUCTION SHARING AGREEMENT




Aminex "is pleased to announce that a formal Addendum to the Ruvuma Production Sharing Agreement has been signed with the Tanzanian Minister of Energy and Mines."

"The Addendum allows for the remaining obligations under the First Extension Period to be completed in the Second Extension Period, as previously announced by the company on 30 May 2013. The amended agreement requires four wells to be drilled by the end of 2016. In conjunction with the amended obligations to the Ruvuma PSA, the Company has granted TPDC (Tanzanian Petroleum Development Corporation) and the Government certain securities over Kiliwani North Development Licence on a sliding scale basis. As each of the wells is drilled the security reduces and when all four wells are drilled the Government and TPDC will no longer have any further security over the Kiliwani North Development Licence."

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 19:39

thanks, but its still not that clear, my brakets

Prospectus


"The second extension period commenced in December 2013 and will end in December 2016. Under the terms of the PSA, the work programme for
the second extension period requires the partners to carry out additional geological and geophysical studies as deemed necessary and for two exploration wells to be drilled (one in each concession area).
The minimum expenditure required is US$4.5 million in each concession area. As the partners plan an extensive 2D seismic survey over both concession areas, including seismic over the potential appraisal area incorporating the Ntorya and Ntorya up-dip prospects, the Tanzanian authorities have agreed that

Aminex and its partners may amend the work programme so that the two wells required under the first extension period are transferred to the second extension period, thereby requiring four wells to be drilled in the final period. In return Aminex has agreed to provide security over the Kiliwani North Development Licence to guarantee the amended well drilling obligations for the second extension period. For each well drilled on the Ruvuma PSA, ( TPDC’s security interest over the Kiliwani North Development Licence will be reduced by 3 per cent. for the first well and 4 per cent. thereafter.) A variation addendum to the Ruvuma PSA is being prepared for signature and will formalise the deferment of the work programme and the security to be granted over the Kiliwani North Development Licence."

[warbaby43] 01/2/2016 19:18

blackgold, see 50897 for El1te's link to the Prospectus - nearly all the PSA requirements are detailed therein - eg p49 for incremental loss of KN-1.

[tmmalik] 01/2/2016 19:05

I think aex nd solo are going to make new agreement with new terms.Let see in 2 weeks time.

[lfdkmp] 01/2/2016 18:59

warbaby

Thanks - prompted me to revisit the RNS. You are indeed correct.

"During the testing and commissioning phase, the TPDC will be invoiced for gas produced at the end of each month and will be required to pay on invoice."

So first invoice end of February. Payment of invoice??????

[greyingsurfer] 01/2/2016 18:59

BG

Peter / warbaby, what % of KN does Aminex lose for every well thats not drilled before end of 2016, was it 5% per well?

I think it's around that figure. But I had a quick look today and couldn't find the detail. I'll have another look tomorrow

WB

LFDKMP, and my failing memory tells me that payment IN ADVANCE only applies to commercial production not to testing and commissioning where they get paid in arrears just for actual gas supplied.

Yes.

Also, given TPDC's emphasizing that they believe themselves to now have c100mmcfd of surplus gas

I think there's a fair degree of posturing in those statements, and it almost certainly includes all the potential supply - KN-1, upgrades by M&P and at Songo Songo. As well as being a short term figure.

Peter

[vike1] 01/2/2016 18:38

Consider this. With a mkt cap of c.USD40m, we're now trading at about 3x 2016 net income. We're trading down when we should be trading up. Time for a re-rating.

[warbaby43] 01/2/2016 18:19

LFDKMP, and my failing memory tells me that payment IN ADVANCE only applies to commercial production not to testing and commissioning where they get paid in arrears just for actual gas supplied. Also, given TPDC's emphasizing that they believe themselves to now have c100mmcfd of surplus gas, it might also be a bit dangerous to be too presumptuous on either commercial start date or first year production level.

Meanwhile, it seems that we don't even get any video fun to leaven the disappointment.

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 18:05

greyingsurfer "And while I'm reasonably happy that some drilling can be done by the end of 2016, it's beginning to look as though fitting in 4 wells is going to be difficult or unlikely - which if it doesn't happen will lead to giving up some share of KN-1 to TPDC."

Peter / warbaby, what % of KN does Aminex lose for every well thats not drilled before end of 2016, was it 5% per well?

[flyingbull] 01/2/2016 18:00

The February oil stock challenge is still on....deadline for entries is midnight on Tuesday.

[lfdkmp] 01/2/2016 17:12

Guys amongst the opaque signals of the aborted Bowleven buy in, can I offer some thoughts on KN-1. From today's other RNS:

"The Company has been advised by the Tanzanian Petroleum Development Corporation ("TPDC") to prepare the Kiliwani North 1 well for production starting mid-February."

Now unless my failing memory again lets me down, my understanding is that payment for KN-1 production is paid to AEX by confirmed letter of credit IN ADVANCE. So by my reckoning we could be about two weeks from first cash receipts. By Aminex standards that truly is imminent!

[warbaby43] 01/2/2016 17:10

Disagreement over the work programme might not have been entirely over timing; its composition might also have been a bone of contention with BLVN wanting to see more near term seismic included.

The Placing Prospectus indicated an intention to carry out a Ruvuma seismic survey of 956 km with 405km being deemed necessary for the Ntorya appraisal area. Instead just 181km was carried out in the 2013/14 programme.

Moreover, although Namisange is clearly a key prospect, as the map above indicates very little seismic has been done there with the 2013/14 survey adding only a single line linking the NE of Namisange to the NW of Ntorya (see Placing Presentation)

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 16:49

I don't think it will be to long before we find out just how special the relationship with TPDC is.

"75% (operator) interest in the Ruvuma PSA, where it is making progress towards the recompletion of the Ntorya 1 discovery well, and the drilling of the Ntorya 2 appraisal well. This programme has been designed with the support of TPDC to fast-track the field development and potentially build an early production system for local power demand."

"The Company continues to focus on appraising Ntorya where we have planned an exciting programme prior to applying for a 25 year development licence. Aminex is currently assessing alternative ways to monetise its gas in the Ruvuma PSA acreage, where we already have a commercial gas discovery at Ntorya-1, through an early production system."

[vike1] 01/2/2016 16:24

Here's a crazy thought: perhaps there's an AEX buyout on the table, and prospective buyers want the whole thing.

Signing of GSA & WRL operations prove there's a business here.

Just speculating or course.

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 16:23

so Aminex is going to have a million $ a month net net net, coming in.

[greyingsurfer] 01/2/2016 16:17

Hi WB

Points occurring:

- Given that BLVN would have fine combed the seismic and well data before making the farmout offer, unlikely that today was a comment on the assets

Quite

- BLVN have form over work programmes - they opted not to extend part of their Cameroon licence, even though it contained a discovery, due to an inability to agree a work programme with the Cameroon equivalent of TPDC

Agreed

- If AEX are fibbing over the work programme excuse, the failure to proceed is much more likely to be due to the financial weakness of both AEX and Solo. In this regard, Solo has not been helped by their indirect LGO connection

Unlikely the reason, this was all well known before the initial agreement was signed, and under the agreement most of the funding for the planned drilling program would have come from BLVN. More likely perhaps that BLVN got cold feet about funding the planned program? They certainly have disgruntled shareholders, I don't know how much pressure they could/would have bought to bear?

- While there is mention of the KN-1 option in the Solo RNS, there is no expression of intention to exercise it despite now being over half way through the 30 days

No, but not really surprising while the BLVN deal was ongoing. The real test comes over the next week or so!

Overall, clearly a setback. I've argued it was a good deal for both sides, and it was. AEX is now in a stronger position than pre deal, since the imminence of production is now much clearer and the GSA in place on the expected terms. From that point of view the possibilities of funding a drilling program in Ruvuma look better now than in November. And were it not for the time constraints I'd feel reasonably relaxed about today's developments. That is the worry. And while I'm reasonably happy that some drilling can be done by the end of 2016, it's beginning to look as though fitting in 4 wells is going to be difficult or unlikely - which if it doesn't happen will lead to giving up some share of KN-1 to TPDC.

Peter

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 12:20

thanks fireplace.

Malcy's blog

Bowleven/Aminex

"BLVN has announced this morning that it has decided not to proceed with the proposed acquisition of 25% of Kiliwani North and 50% of the Ruvuma PSA from Aminex. It is understood from the company that the parties couldnt agree on a suitable work programme. I suspect that as all appears reasonably friendly, the Aminex team, including their lender and the Tanzanian Government, did not want to surrender any more value from what is undoubtedly just now becoming a most valuable asset. Having such support from both the Government and lender is incredibly valuable and enables the AEX team to maintain its original working interest."

"The company, now with the GSA signed, is preparing Kiliwani North to come onstream imminently and will be able to book reserves. They are also continuing to appraise Ntorya and hope to monetise that gas through an early production system. All in all it appears that although the market probably considers the Bowleven deal a missed opportunity, may actually be proof that a GSA, first gas and booking reserves has built strength on which to build".
-

[fireplace22] 01/2/2016 12:02

hxxp://www.malcysblog.com/2016/02/oil-price-chevron-premier-bowlevenaminex-sundry-petroceltic-amec-and-finally/

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 11:28

warbaby, I should think Solo would like to know what the optimal flow rate are going to be first and that might not be known until after the agreed 30 days allowed them from the time of signing GSA 13/01, so maybe seeking a small extension.

"Initial production rates will be managed to allow for testing and commissioning of the recently completed gas processing plant and pipeline, while recording critical pressure and flow rate measurements to determine the optimal flow rate to maximize the life of the reservoir."

[blackgold00] 01/2/2016 11:18

maybe TPDC has let it be known that they would like to back-in and take a share of the proposed Ntorya appraisal/development and pay up a % of the capital expenditure accrued to date, as they did with KN.

[warbaby43] 01/2/2016 11:07

Thanks for the NR link Vike1, and noting that Solo are in discussions with AEX over taking up their option would seem to indicate that they might be seeking a variance in the terms.