Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[knackers] 25/1/2019 18:09

Am not certain storage at Indico and CPO5 is comparable with the Platanillo OBA storage facility. But that infrastructure will be needed at Indico :o)

[swerves1] 25/1/2019 18:01

So Peel target price of 22p
v
Stifel target price of 35p

Why such a big difference?

[plentymorefish] 25/1/2019 18:00

In the recommendation history towards the bottom of the note, am I reading it correctly with regards to the 8th & 10th of January 2019?

8th January Recommendation = Add
Price (presumably current) = 20p
Target = 17p

Call me old fashioned but, if you follow their recommendation, why would you be inclined to 'add' if the current share price was 3p (or 18%) above their 'target' surely their recommendation at that stage would be to sell?

I must be missing something obvious?

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/1/2019 17:56

Knackers - 3 drill pads, some access roads, storage tanks, etc, etc..... can see $25 mill there, but not $75/80 mill (assuming the bulk of Peel's "E&E spend" is at CPO-5)

[knackers] 25/1/2019 17:53

100% x2 and you maybe getting closer to the mark, TGG ;o)

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/1/2019 17:49

Wonder if Peel have put 100% of the CPO-5 spend down to AMER??

[fadilz] 25/1/2019 17:49

Sometimes companies pay for this kind of thing. For example RKH pay Edison £50k pa to produce similar reports. possibly the same applies here. See research disclosures at end - eg AMER is a corporate client of Peel Hunt.

Anyway thanks for posting starzerus. Interesting to see the exploration assets table, which gives Chance of Success for each well, with 33% for Put-12. Q1 start for Put-8, and apparently 2 rigs for CPO-5. Let's see!

[knackers] 25/1/2019 17:45

Peel Hunt will have clients wanting cheap shares. [Like everyone else!]
End of.

It's tricky to throw cold water over 'initial' 2P reserves (on a single drill) of 23mmboe, 200ft+ net pay, free flowing at 5k bopd, but they had a good go, bless 'em.

[tom111] 25/1/2019 17:44

Investec/Stifel Nicolaus and Arden Partners are joint brokers for the co according to Amer web site.

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/1/2019 17:43

That capex spend of $49.5 million doesn't make sense. At least the $35.6 mill on explo & eval doesn't. That's for Pintadillo, Indico & prep for other CPO-5 wells. Given AMER have 30% of CPO-5, that implies $80/90 mill has been spent at CPO-5

[swerves1] 25/1/2019 17:42

Tgg - ok, it was your's I seen.
So my previous questions still remain??

[swerves1] 25/1/2019 17:36

Just read a previous post now which said Peel Hunt are Amerisur's broker. But when I checked Amer's own website today, it stated their joint brokers are Investec and Stifel. So am confused with this now?

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/1/2019 17:35

I didn't even check, having read Peel's claims in the note, but they aren't the company broker or Nomad......

[swerves1] 25/1/2019 17:29

Very surprised with Peel Hunt's broker note today!

I've some questions if some more knowledgeable people here could answer please:

Are not Investec and Stifel the company brokers for Amerisur? If so, what are their broker notes on Amer or why we don't see them?

If Peel Hunt are not the company broker, what's their motive to do such a detailed analysis note on Amer?
And as toonarmy2 referred to before, could they have any direct link to Harbour and thus have some agenda on this?

[rollthedice] 25/1/2019 17:28

tgg ~ I was thinking the same. They've had Indico-1, Pintadillo, the pumping station, various infrastructure bits and pieces and the interventions at Platanillo but $30-45m depending on how much free cash was generated in H2?

I wonder whether their figure is for unrestricted cash only and the difference is for capex already agreed/costed and set aside?

If they've really burned through that cash it puts a slightly different tint on the 'cash rich/debt free company throwing of huge volumes of free cash from production' which is sometimes how AMER has been presented on forums.

[tom111] 25/1/2019 17:28

Some doomsters at play tonight I must say,maybe want a cheaper entry lol

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/1/2019 17:15

Peel are the company brokers, so I assume they're not making the numbers up!! However, the interims put capex at $4.5 million, whch rather begs the question as to how capex for the full year comes out at $49.5 mill.

That's a lot of groundwork & facilities installed at CPO-5!

[knackers] 25/1/2019 17:14

;o) ROTF...

Silly games being played out here I fancy... Indeed. Why would directors go all-in, filling their boots only to submerge themselves a matter of weeks later! ;o)

CPO5 is now throwing-off serious cash and given the confidence in its prospects a ST loan facility could be the smart move to help accelerate field development and investment in ~20,000 bopd supply infrastructure at the Indico-1 pad, coz that's where production for that particular-singular wellhead is heading.

So we have AMER now chuntering happily towards 10,000 bopd by mid year. And if 2nd and maybe 3rd wells can be mobilised in the next month or so...happy days

[homebrewruss] 25/1/2019 16:53

agreed davwal, seems unlikely

[davwal] 25/1/2019 16:51

Why would directors buy at 18/19p if they knew a placing at 14/15p was coming..?

[moneylender] 25/1/2019 16:44

Lets go for a single figure placing.

Makes the maths easier to work out for morons!

[plentymorefish] 25/1/2019 16:42

Yes, I think they will need to bolster cash reserves. Question is, what price the placing?....12-14p maybe?

[rollthedice] 25/1/2019 16:32

Reading the Peel Hunt analysis further they're projecting cash & equivalents will have fallen to just $16.6m (end H1 $49m incl restricted cash) with net current assets of just $1.8m. I thought I was being miserly suggesting they wouldn't have added much if anything to H1 figures allowing for reduced drilling activity against that originally targeted but PH are suggesting that AMER will have used 2/3rds of their end H1 cash by 31Dec18. Occidental deal reduces AMER's capex on joint licences but they're upping the ante on CPO-5 significantly and ongoing Platanillo maintenance must be draining cash too. Question is where's the capex coming from if they've had significant cash outflows? Could they need an equity or debt fundraising round? Would certainly explain why share price has rapidly gone off the boil although some retrace was probably inevitable.

[lucyp00p] 25/1/2019 15:59

Anyway, I sold 29,697 of these for £5,456 4 days ago to pay off part of a car finance deal. Then I thought, I don't want to be out at these prices and applied for a loan, which was just approved. So, I jumped back in and replaced the 29,697 for £5210.40 and covered the first year's interest with the profit. Simples