Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[charlieeee] 22/1/2019 12:19

The problem with applying standard valuations to CPO-5 is that they don't get anywhere near the right number.

"However, the Company believes in light of the low operating costs and high price realizations for the light crude produced that economic reserves will be of similar values. According to McDaniel's estimates the Indico-1X well alone may recover approximately 5.8 MMBO".

A well that cost 6 million to drill may recover 5.8 mmbo.

Capex at approximately a dollar a barrel.

Opex at $15 reducing to $10.

Sold at the well head at $8 discount to Brent.

Even after deductions for the X factor and royalties, this is far above any average profitability per barrel such as that used in the above calculation of 8p per share.

The 15 mmbo Amer share only seems to include the 4 new wells and not the existing Mariposa and Indico, our share of which is another 7 mmbo.

Even with all the detailed numbers which we have now been given, it is still early days in evaluating what this might be worth per share.

It does, of course, also ignore the fact that, as well as this extension, we have yet to look at the direct Llanos 34 extension to the north east.

What a gift from Petrodorado, along with all the $57 million losses to offset against our tax.

[mad foetus] 22/1/2019 12:05

Wonder if we are back in the holding pattern of morning mark downs and afternoon rises? Cocaloca

[bigwavedave] 22/1/2019 12:02

Re RNS: after a quick read, I'm happy with that. Still a couple of question marks over Plat but, overall, looks good to me.

[ladeside] 22/1/2019 11:58

Exactly al, I was just about to point that out myself and that was prior to the pipeline and additional storage facilities as well.

[al101uk] 22/1/2019 11:46

Knackers,

So Plat is worth more that 0p but less than 50p, thanks for narrowing it down.

Fortunately CPO-5 is far easier to value at 20P (with upside).

Must be all that historical data on Plat that's so f'king confusing for you eh?

"Plat simply wasn't ever going to take the business to 50p"

But it did, nearly 70p in fact.

[underhill2] 22/1/2019 11:34

Good post. Some of the potential valuations on here like 40p are just guesswork. The Market knows that and thats why we are at around 18.5p. Yes of course there is fantastic potential and 25p to 40p may be on the horixon but not just yet. Im here for the medium to long term and more than happy to wait for the rewards. An interesting and exciting year ahe d of us

[jp2011] 22/1/2019 11:25

Hang on a second CPO-5 officially has P2 15mmbo net attributable to Amer & let's not forget 23% X factor royalty. As it stands based on P2 reserves applying £5/b valuation gives approx 6 pence per share.Not ruling out valuations > 20p but they remain speculation until proven.

[charlieeee] 22/1/2019 11:18

The question for management always has to be the allocation of scarce resources (cash and management skills) to obtain the highest return and the CPO-5 campaign clearly has to take precedence, with light oil, low lifting costs and long life wells: those are the factors which make a profitable oil company.

Obviously OXY will be pushing for activity on their commitment and as we are operator, that will mean real demand on management time to deliver the various projects, social engagement, seismic and drilling.

By comparison, the Plat. field (and including any development of the "T" sands in the Pintadillo) are of less importance, but any calculation of their economic value (and inclusion as reserves in the ground)largely predicates on the cost of extraction versus price of oil: at higher prices of oil they clearly have a value and as such are likely to remain in reserves. The discovered oil is still there (apart from the barrels extracted during this year, which, of course, paid our overheads without need for dilution).

Any deal they can make on the current OBA capacity is obviously a plus and clearly it is a factor in making Plat production profitable (as well as being the planned exit route for Coendu, with the road from Plat to Put9/12 already in process).

All in all, a first class update and sets the scene for excellent share appreciation over the coming months: obviously, not that appealing to the short term traders, who always want today's spike, but certainly a share for investors looking for a good annual return without too much effort.

[sogoesit] 22/1/2019 11:17

Yes, M'boundi... I knew it well ;-)... but hard work to develop.
Burren's company maker.

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/1/2019 11:14

Indeed, remember BUR well....

[xxnjr] 22/1/2019 11:13

completely agree tgg. m'boundi became a 60K field at it's best, ISTR.

[knackers] 22/1/2019 11:11

You can assign whatever notional value you like to Plat, zero if you so please (which is patently nonsense), it simply wasn't ever going to take the business to 50p. CPO5 alone is shaping-up to be worth 20p on the share price with upside. I fancy we're currently at something of a discount to fair value.

Now, if you don't like the narrative or the deals struck in the last 36 months for that matter, best push-off elsewhere. Simple really.

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/1/2019 11:06

Point is, 5,000bopd onshore is not common.... which says a lot about the reservoir quality & obviously the economics.

[xxnjr] 22/1/2019 11:01

tgg.... early days of M'boundi - Burren Energy springs to mind if memory serves.

[leas1] 22/1/2019 11:00

greatgeraldo, I think that was the reason for the appointment of Elodie Grant Godley back in October. Head of Comms.

[xxnjr] 22/1/2019 10:58

with some of Cali's finest!

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/1/2019 10:58

This morning's update - 3 steps forward (Indico update, future drilling at CPO-5, ditto in Put) & one step back (Put production)?

btw, where else in the world have folk seen onshore wells knocking out circa 5,000 bopd on natural flow?

[lucyp00p] 22/1/2019 10:49

And a disco I presume

[thegreatgeraldo] 22/1/2019 10:31

kaos3
22 Jan '19 - 07:19 - 16292 of 16364
0 0 0
"and socializing the activities shortly to commence in these blocks."

what does that mean?

...Liasing with local communities to explain their upcoming work programme?

[xxnjr] 22/1/2019 10:30

the balance will change going ahead. Makes the Porsche a bit of a bargain.

[sogoesit] 22/1/2019 10:27

But the Booked Value of the Cortina is currently about 70% of the Cortina and Porsche!
(The Porsche still has its wheels and other parts to be fitted!)

[davwal] 22/1/2019 10:12

So much store was set by JW concerning the N Sand prospects in the north of
Platanillo, yet after one drill of unknown outcome it’s looking a possible write-off given the lack of an update.

[sogoesit] 22/1/2019 10:10

CPO-5 Reserves Comparison to End Year 2017 (NET to AMER):

Dec 2017 - 1P: 0.79mmbo
Jan 2018 - 1P: 5.99mmbo

Dec 2017 - 2P: 1.30mmbo
Jan 2018 - 2P: 7.69mmbo

Leaving aside any change to the other assets, Net Total Reserves now look like:
Dec 2017 - 1P: 13.94mmbo
Jan 2018 - 1P: 19.14mmbo

Dec 2017 - 2P: 20.70mmbo
Jan 2018 - 2P: 27.09mmbo

Draw-down of Indico-1X and Mariposa currently 0.82mmbo per annum.

[NB Platanillo makes up 67% of 1P Reserves and 70% of 2P Reserves at Dec 2017 book versus January CPO-5 increment].

[al101uk] 22/1/2019 10:02

Tyler,

The RNS doesn't give any production numbers for Plat, it only talks about OBA throughput. The detail for Plat was quite frankly laughable, no revised reserves numbers, no production and a meaningless OBA transport number due to any number of caveats, not the least of which is the fact that they didn't transport any oil in December.

I've asked a very simple question of the company:

Should I assign nill value to the Platanillo field given the complete lack of any meaningful numbers, the stopping of production, the endless maintenance and the lack of any meaningful free cash flow at last years results.

Currently I can only assume that Plat is very close to being non-commercial.

Interested in Fadilz point of view if he's watching?

[knackers] 22/1/2019 09:54

I think when AMER present FY results and their cash position minds will be further concentrated. Remember directors were jumping in the deep-end and going long *AHEAD* of the Indico-1 drill result! Now why would they have done that...?